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Uncle Donnie

Mar 29, 2003, 3:30 PM

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Misunderstandings about crime

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I recently received an e-mail from some folks who were considering retiring to Chapala but were disturbed and concerned about the risk of someone kidnapping their children.

I sent a reference to the 2002 issue of The Guide to Mexico Business put out by the American Chamber of Commerce of Mexico which states that although kidnapping IS a major problem, since 1993 only six expatriates or their dependents have been victims.

In regard to local Lakeside crime, aside from burglaries and car thefts, which I'd bet happen less frequently here than many places NoB, the crimes against persons that I'm aware of have been as a result of fueds or long-standing disagreements, gringo on gringo, Mexican on Mexican, or probably drug related. None of these are circumstances that most of us would be involved in normally.

The articles the people sent (with the query, "How do you explain "(this) were primarily aimed at foreign business executives working in a number of countries and written or published by companies seeking to sell some sort of security or anti-kidnapping service.

www.washingtonpost.com has an article in the 9/17/02 issue titled "Kidnapping Is Growth Industry in Mexico" by Kevin Sullivan.

A blatant service ad is at www.11.law.com/article.asp?a=2526 where you can find a piece by 'hostage negotiator/lawyer' Michael Fietland titled "International Kidnapping: A Business Risk- How to Deal With It."

Obviously some people misread this trash and decide that Mexico is unsafe for retirement. Their loss!

Shameless self-promotion:
http://www.headformexico.com

johanson

Mar 29, 2003, 6:15 PM

Post #2 of 21 (1827 views)

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Re: [Uncle Donnie] Misunderstandings about crime

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Gee it's amazing what folks thousands of miles away hear. If I had to be robbed I would rather be robbed down here than up North. The burglars are even polite down here. I totally agree with uncle Donnie.

The only area where the crime rate is a little high might be with burglaries. I take that back. If you are a billionaire, I understand there is a risl of kidnapping in Mexico City. But then again Bill Gates also has to have security around his home in Bellevue, WA.

raferguson

Mar 30, 2003, 9:15 AM

Post #3 of 21 (1805 views)

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Re: [Uncle Donnie] Misunderstandings about crime

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It is not just the people in the security business who are concerned about crime. Mexican newspapers and the public at large are very concerned about it. One survey says that 47 percent of Mexicans feel insecure where they live, and 77% of Mexicans have changed their habits due to fear of crime. Crime costs are high, one study said that they amount to 12% of the Mexican gross national product.

As far as kidnapping is concerned, Mexico is number two worldwide in kidnapping. It is not only billionaires or celebrities who are kidnapped, it is middle class people, businessmen, or anyone perceived to have some money. The Coparmex (Mexican chamber of commerce) reports that businessmen are buying kidnapping insurance, and incurring substantial security costs. I saw one Mexican movie where part of the conversation at a party was counting the number of bodyguards, I think that they counted 18, but then argued whether a driver who carries a gun is a bodyguard. Some of these kidnappings are express kidnappings, where the ransom could be as little as $500. Luckily, in Mexico, unlike Columbia, foreigners are not usually a target for kidnapping.

Remember that the homicide rate in Mexico is double that of the USA, and ten times that of Canada or western Europe. Crimes in Mexico are also more likely to include violence or threats of violence. For example, in the USA, carjackings are around 3% of the total car thefts, where in Mexico carjackings are 40 to 50% of car thefts.

Yes, I have citations for all of these numbers, mostly from Mexican newspapers.

You may be looking at Mexico through rose colored glasses.

http://www.fergusonsculpture.com

Uncle Donnie

Mar 30, 2003, 7:13 PM

Post #4 of 21 (1778 views)

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Re: [raferguson] Misunderstandings about crime

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Richard, I have access to basically the same statistics you've quoted. My glasses have clear lenses with silver frames and brownish earpieces and I've used them to read a number of articles on various topics, including crime.

"There are three kinds of lies; lies, damned lies, and statistics." Mark Twain

Perhaps you could get on the subject of the thread, which is RETIREES and their dependents. Compare any statistics about crimes against these folks in Mexico to their counterparts in the U.S. or Canada and I'm willing to bet that statistics will show that those in Mexico suffer a tremendously smaller
percentage of crimes against person than they do anywhere else on the continent. And my contention is that many of the crimes against gringos are perpetrated by other gringos and in the case of Lakeside, I can prove it. What statistics do you have regarding these groups?

A couple or three years some of the locals at Lakeside got their panties in a wad and decided that they were going to gather information proving that this area was a hell-hole of crime against gringos, with danger lurking behind every bougainvillea. Not surprisingly (at least to me and my clear-lensed glasses) after a good deal of publicity they failed to come up with facts to support their preconceived ideas and after fits and flurries of half-hearted activity, dropped the whole project.

I think we're all concerned, to some degree, about all crime where we live. I more or less get my impression of how safe my area is by getting involved and getting out and about; not watching movies. Are you seriously suggesting that movies are a believable source of information?

"Movies ain't real life." Uncle Donnie

As you stated, "foreigners are not usually a target for kidnapping.", which was part of the idea of my original post. As for the 40% -50% figure on carjackings, I don't believe that'll hold up in the gringo retirement havens I'm aware of. I know of one here in the Chapala area in the past 4 or 5 years and in that case no one was injured and the car was recovered within a couple of days.

There's crime almost everywhere, but my observant opinion is that I'm considerably safer here than NoB. I never went to sleep up there without checking to see if I had locked my doors and windows. I was the victim of two burglaries in Texas, was the focus of an attempted mugging in Paris, and have suffered NO untoward experiences in years of traveling and living in various parts of Mexico. Every place I've lived down here I've slept with doors and windows open. Evidently a lot different from other's experiences, but definitely to my liking.

Hope the situation improves wherever you are! Good luck.

Shameless self-promotion:
http://www.headformexico.com

pat

Mar 31, 2003, 10:16 AM

Post #5 of 21 (1753 views)

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Re: [Uncle Donnie] Misunderstandings about crime

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Uncle Donnie said, (much snipped), "And my contention is that many of the crimes against gringos are perpetrated by other gringos and in the case of Lakeside, I can prove it."

UD....Now, you just can't drop a tidbit like this and not expound on it. I am dying of curiosity. Tell us more.

Uncle Donnie

Mar 31, 2003, 11:44 AM

Post #6 of 21 (1746 views)

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Re: [pat] Misunderstandings about crime

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Pat, you toss 'em to me and I'll swat 'em over the fence!

Perhaps one of the major failings of humans is our desire (need?) to gossip (I prefer to call it 'gathering information') but most of the following info was published in the Guad paper. If I missed parts, or misread something I hope someone will respond to give clarification. If corrections or additions are made perhaps this will give a more accurate picture of crime in this area. There ain't much, folks, but I may have missed a relevant case somewhere.

Chisme time! Keep in mind that this is a "report" for the past four years. I've included an item or two outside the scope of Pat's query, but it all fits somehow.

Killing #1---a Mexican architect near Joco interrupted a burglary in progress at his home. Had a pistola, shot towards the intruders at close range, was overpowered and stabbed. Died. Offenders caught and tried.

Killing #2---older gringo couple were requested to move from their rent house by the owner who had recently inherited. They refused, saying they had a valid lease. Someone killed them. Owner and hired thugs implicated. I don't know owner's nationality, nor disposition of the investigation.

Killing #3---gringo couple murdered in their home just prior to departure for NoB. Allegation that gringo who had a grudge hired a Mexican lawyer to hire two thugs to commit the crime. Gringo arrested, died in jail. Lawyer and thugs running free.

Killing #4---Mexican male found stuffed in trunk of car by lake. Probably drug related.

Killing #5---Mexican citizen living in U.S., bodies of mother and 2 or 3 children found in a field near Guad. Authorities were searching for husband as suspect. Who has the rest of this story?

Crimes against persons.

CAP #1---gringo argued with gringo, punched other gringo who tried to defuse the situation. Puncher taken to jail, victim to hospital.

Carjacking:

Mexican thugs from Guad visited area, drug gringa from car in near plaza in Ajijic, took car, captured and car recovered within a few days.

Again, these are my personal recollections, taken from the newspaper. Feel free to correct, extend, expand, or comment in any way.

As far as I know, there are no specifics about car thefts (I personally know 4 victims) but this is an ongoing serious problem, or about home burglaries. I personally know three victims but again, this is a relatively common crime at lakeside.

However, as my friend Don Carlitos said when he suggested I disable the alarm on my Jeep because of the problems it was causing, "You have insurance don't you?"

Shameless self-promotion:
http://www.headformexico.com

Uncle Donnie

Mar 31, 2003, 9:58 PM

Post #7 of 21 (1726 views)

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Re: [Uncle Donnie] I forgot the kidnapping!!!

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Someone reminded me today that we did have a kidnapping here at Lakeside. Two children of a gringo resident.

Gringo grandparents did it. U.S. court sent 'em back down SoB to daddy.

Shameless self-promotion:
http://www.headformexico.com

alex .

Apr 1, 2003, 7:36 AM

Post #8 of 21 (1711 views)

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Re: [Uncle Donnie] car alarm problem?

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You want to hear the alarm sound every so often, to be assured that the vehicle is still there.
Alex

Uncle Donnie

Apr 1, 2003, 9:51 AM

Post #9 of 21 (1699 views)

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Re: [Uncle Donnie] I forgot the kidnapping!!!

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Absolutely correct!!! Mine kept sounding, even though it was turned off, while the mechanics were working on the Jeep.

Shameless self-promotion:
http://www.headformexico.com

wendy devlin

Apr 2, 2003, 2:45 PM

Post #10 of 21 (1670 views)

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Re: [Uncle Donnie] Disregarding and believing...

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Hola Uncle Donnie and all,

After twelve years of assorted experiences...visiting Mexico and monitering Mexican websites...and the discussions(and that's being very polite!) about crime or the 'perception' of crime in Mexico, I'm going to weigh in the subject...and then retreat back to my bunker!

Just kidding...

But regarding....your comment about...

"A couple or three years some of the locals at Lakeside got their panties in a wad and decided that they were going to gather information proving that this area was a hell-hole of crime against gringos"

I remember this time...especially as a good Mexican friend of mine who's family owns at house at Chapala....offered to help with a 'task force' on the subject of 'crime' in the local area...on these very forums. He got nearly NO response...via personal emails when he asked people to write him with proveable incidents...and cases etc. He gave up on the subject after that.

Now that isn't to say, that Mexico and the Lakeside are not without crime...and you and others have outlined...specific cases and instances. And crimes against 'the person' may well be far less than a great many other places in the world.

And people with experience...might express that both petty thievery and burglary are common in many places in Mexico.

Today, I have TWO points on this (or any) subject which I wish to emphasize. In regards to both....

First hand experiences and what people tell me...is going on...(according to their perception)

I try ( and sometimes fail) to do the following:

"Disregard with disregarding"

"Believe without believing"

What I mean by this, is NOT to be too quick to DISMISS information that others provide...especially if it fails to jive with my own perceptions or experiences. And also not judge or 'pooh-pooh' events as having 'no basis' in reality or being smacking of paranoia

And alternately, taking in experiences and information and operating upon it(belief)... while at the same time not necessarily fully believing in others or even my OWN opinion fully.

Jabberwocky?

I'm not too good at putting words to these perceptions.

A simpler translation might be: in my opinion: people do others a big diservice by either:

1)Telling them that they have little or nothing to worry about travelling/living in Mexico(or anywhere for that matter) or

2) Advising them that danger, evil, thieves etc. lurk behind every bougainvilla.

Both to be 'disregarded' and 'believed' without 'disregarding' or believing. Heads up...at all times...in all places.

I think also that gringos are well-advised to realize that they may not be as 'welcomed' or 'liked' as they may think they are...in certain places...at certain times. A thorough study of Mexican history or current sociology will detail why this is so.

And I am not talking here about recent world events. There is a long chain of events leading to events...stretching way back into time and stretching way ahead into the future.

Newcomers need this kind of information.

Because...Things are not...

always like they 'seem'. Anywhere...but in my experience...especially in Mexico.

Now to pick some bougainvilla for the bunker;)

Wendy

raferguson

Apr 2, 2003, 3:56 PM

Post #11 of 21 (1664 views)

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Re: [wendy devlin] Disregarding and believing...

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I think that Wendy has it exactly right, that everyone has an opinion about crime, and they are all different. The essay below explains my position in more detail.

Crime in Mexico is a subject on which people can and usually do
disagree. In addition to differences in personal opinion, official
sources of information also disagree about the severity of crime in
Mexico. I am going to try to explain why these sources disagree so
completely.

On one hand, many available statistics, including victim surveys,
indicate that Mexico has a crime rate that is similar to or lower than
the crime rate in the USA. On the other hand, the governments of the
US, UK, Canada, and Australia warn their citizens that Mexico is a
dangerous place. The media in the US and Mexico frequently report on
crime as a serious problem in Mexico. How can these different views
be explained? Are these authoritative sources mistaken? Why would
all these sources be incorrect? Or are the sources right and the
surveys and statistics wrong?

Let me propose a variety of hypotheses for why we have a clear
discrepancy between statistics and official sources.

1. Mexican statistics are probably not accurate. In private
correspondence with a university professor in the field of surveys, I
was told that crime statistics in Mexico are primitive compared to
those in the USA, and that the official statistics are not worthy of
confidence.

2. Some statistics indicate that Mexico is more dangerous than the US.
For example, bank robberies are less frequent in Mexico, but homicide
rates are higher in Mexico.

3. The crime rate in Mexico is increasing. The official statistics
show that most crime has doubled since the economic crisis of 1994,
although the rate of increase is flattening. Other sources agree that
crime in Mexico is increasing. The crime rate in the USA has been
consistently decreasing for several years. Therefore, the crime rate
in Mexico appears to be high, and the US not so high, relative to the
recent past.

4. Important people in Mexico are often victims of crime. If one poor
person robs another, that is not news. If a billionaire is kidnapped,
that is news. I still remember seeing a lawyer, live on the national
news show 24 horas, asking the kidnappers of a billionaire to contact
him so that they could make a deal. I also remember when armed men
tried to rob President Zedillo's son in his car on the streets of
Mexico City. The robbery was thwarted by his bodyguards. My favorite
story was when the mayor of Mexico city had his armored car stolen,
they even captured his armed guards.

5. Mexico City is the political, economic, and media center of a
highly centralized country. It is also the crime capital of the
country. Many perceptions of Mexico are based on Mexico City, which
may not be fair to the rest of the country, which has a lower crime
rate.

6. The crime rate for tourists is hard to measure. If several
visitors complain to their embassy that they were robbed, the embassy
will strengthen the warning to their citizens. In Mexico, you can
spot a foreign tourist half a block away. Foreign tourists are much
wealthier and likely to carry more cash than most residents. They are
unlikely to stick around to testify in court. In a poor country, the
foreign tourist is an obvious target, unless he is wearing rags. Most
statistics are averages for residents, and say little about the crime
rate for foreign visitors.

7. The media is hyping crime news. The media in the USA and Mexico
both tend to hype crime, because fear sells. TV Azteca had several
minutes on crime every night on their national news show, including
interviewing victims of kidnappings and other crimes.

8. Types of crime vary. Obviously, some types of crime are more
serious and traumatic than others. Kidnapping for ransom is almost
unknown in the USA, but is a cottage industry in Mexico. (Most
sources indicate that Mexico is second worldwide in the number
of kidnappings, behind Columbia. However, Mexican kidnappers,
unlike their Colombian counterparts, rarely kidnap foreign
visitors). Robberies of taxicab passengers are a well known problem
in Mexico City, but not in the US. Taxicab robberies usually involve
a short term kidnapping, making them very dangerous and traumatic.
One survey indicated that almost half of all crimes in Mexico are
comitted with violence or threats o violence, while US Justice
Department surveys show violent crime as a smaller fraction of the
total crime rate. If some serious crimes are dramatically more
common, it is easy, but perhaps inaccurate, to conclude that the
overall crime rate is higher.

9. Crimes in Mexico may be committed in a different way than crimes
in the USA. In Mexico, 40% of all auto thefts were committed
with violence or threat of violence. In the USA, only about
2% of auto thefts are committed with violence or the threat
of violence.

10. The police are a factor. The police in Mexico have a bad
reputation, both as being criminals themselves, and as being
ineffective in catching and convicting criminals. All proposals for
reducing crime in Mexico have as a key element the purification of the
police, getting rid of the bad apples. While the police in the US are
not perfect, their overall reputation is far superior.

11. Both the USA and Mexico have a high crime rate, and a high rate of
violence, compared to Western European countries and to many other
parts of the world. The US prison population is now almost 2 million
people. In other words, to many countries, both the US and Mexico
appear dangerous; from their perspective, they are right. For
example, the British government warns their citizens about various
types of crime in Florida, as well as Mexico City. I don't read
German, but I have been told that the German government strongly warns
their citizens about crime in the USA.

Many of the factors above tend to be synergistic, and can work
together to change people's beliefs about crime in Mexico. For
example, if famous people are the victim of crime, the media will tend
to hype crime more. If people do not have confidence in the police,
they will not report crime, and the unreported crime does not show up
in official crime statistics.

What does it all mean? Is Mexico as safe as or safer than the US, as
some statistics suggest? Are the other sources wrong? Is Mexico
dangerous for some people and not for others? Or do the statistics
fail to capture the dangerous reality? Should we all turn off our TVs
and refuse to read warnings from various governments?

My opinion is that the truth probably lies somewhere in the middle.
Mexico is not as safe for visitors as some people would have you
believe. Mexico is not as dangerous as some sources suggest.

My recommendation is that you do what I do. I still go to Mexico, but
I am avoiding the known troubled areas, and I take reasonable
precautions while I am there. Mexico is a big country, and crime
rates vary from place to place. Mexico City is generally regarded as
the crime capital of Mexico. Other troubled areas include Chiapas, as
well as rural areas in Oaxaca and Guerrero states, and the cities
on the US border.

Richard Ferguson
November 15, 2002

http://www.fergusonsculpture.com

Georgia

Apr 3, 2003, 6:38 AM

Post #12 of 21 (1635 views)

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Re: [raferguson] Disregarding and believing...

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This is really interesting to me. Over the years we hosted many foreign students at our home through various exchange programs (like we didn't already have enough kids in the house - we have 10 - duh). Their families were all very concerned about crime and violence against them because of the US reputation for having a violent society. Their perception was correct but did not apply to our circumstances. We live in the country. I do not have a key to my house. My husband has one and for reasons we can't explain we lock the house when we go away for more than a day. Our house is now on the market, and the broker knows she can just walk in if we're not home. In thirty some odd years this has never been a problem. Here's another quirk: at night before I go to bed, I lock the front door, but none of the others! Where there are glass windows, I never understood the point of locking your doors anyway. Better they should just walk in then break a window if they want to rob us.

That having been said, I am very ill at ease with our (local, US) police. There has been a long, documented history of corruption with the local police and they "selectively enforce." Having a household that is, in large part, hispanic, I tell my kids to be wary of the police and keep their distance. "Driving while brown" (or black) is a "crime" around here. Being hispanic raises a presumption of guilt.

Now, as to Mexico: we lock everything up because that is the custom and our caretaker's rule. I trust his judgment, but I am not fearful. I find the police (and their minor "mordida" problem) to be easier to deal with because everyone knows the routine. "Driving while gringa" I understand - and know how to handle it. They don't seem to be mean spirited like our "local yokels" just financially impaired. At the very least, in my experience, they have been courteously corrupt. This is an improvement.

What I do know for sure is that I feel none of the discomfort I experience in our US community when a group of youths passes by. The young people here are respectful and friendly towards adults. I really do like that.

I think that Mexico, like the US, has a violent society that expresses itself to a great extent within the family unit or in areas that are particularly economically depressed or heavily populated like Mexico City. Nothing new or different here. And so, the usual advice applies: be kind to your family and hold on to your purse, lock your car doors when you drive and don't flash your wealth around people who don't have enough to get by. (You might consider sharing that wealth, by the way.) Avoid bars after midnight and don't get drunk in public. Lock your doors and get to know your neighbors.

The perceptions of danger or safety in Mexico are both correct. Wendy is right.

Uncle Donnie

Apr 3, 2003, 7:54 AM

Post #13 of 21 (1625 views)

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Re: [Georgia] Disregarding and believing...

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Great discussion! And so civil. I believe this is what folks want to read, a rational discussion of all sides of an issue.

No need to bunker in Wendy, we all love you. You too, Richard, even though you're off subject a bit. Now that David and the moderators have cleared out some of the more virulent rads we can do these sorts of things.

I was told yesterday that the town I used to live in, San Nicolas de Ibarra, had become a hot-bed of gang activity due to the return of teens from...the good old USA. They learn bad habits and then repeat 'em down here.

But my original post was about retirement areas. There usually are more problems (big generalization) in any tourist area anywhere in the world, and as Wendy says, that requires the visitor to use great caution. And as for the failure of the Chapala area gringo populace to participate in the crime survey, my guess as a fringe non-participant in 99% of the local activities and organizations (I don't play well with others, run with scissors, etc.) is that there may have been some question as to the motive(s) of the group doing the collecting. Village paranoia?

I think it would have been useful, particularly to those trying to make a decision about moving here. A local real estate firm was listed in the paper as the place to turn in info and that may have deterred a few folks.

Richard, you seem to be using national reports, covering all crime against anyone, everywhere within the country. I'm wondering, because I've never seen any, if statistics have been compiled in respect solely to the expatriate community.

Anyway, I'm stickin' with my contention that at this point in time, in this place, crime against expats (even including the large number of burglaries) is smaller and less violent than NoB and I feel much safer here than there. And much more relaxed. And happier.

And Georgia, good point about listening to your employees. They know and understand the terrain.

Shameless self-promotion:
http://www.headformexico.com

wendy devlin

Apr 3, 2003, 10:59 AM

Post #14 of 21 (1613 views)

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Re: [Georgia] When we each contribute our experiences...

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a bigger picture emerges, no?

Georgia,

I understand that you are temporarily back at your place in the States. And in the process of moving to Mexico...fulltime....not to mention those 10 kids:)

And...so... I appreciate the time you take to contribute to this discussion. As to...

Your comment :

>>>Their(Mexican exchange student) families were all very concerned about crime and violence against them because of the US reputation for having a violent society. Their perception was correct but did not apply to our circumstances. We live in the country.

I too live in the country. Our 'bunker' is actually a 4 hectare(read 9.6 acres to you U.S. folks) farm on a dead-end road at the edge of a somewhat isolated coastal town(pop.12,000)

Five hundred miles of forest stretches among ranges of mountains to the east.

Vancouver B.C. is actually only about 80 miles to the south but a 5-6 hour journey by car, given the two ferry rides needed.

Having stated that...my perspective on 'crime' is definitely slated by experiences living in such a countryside for the past 30 years. Here, too, houses can be unlocked...and crime such as it exists is mostly petty, annoying but rarely hazardous. People like to think of the ferries as making it difficult for perps to leave town. And in a town this size, it is difficult to have secrets.

Many people from the States are wanting to 'retire' here...but to their frustration;

are allowed only six months.

As 'young' retirees, we explored extended snow-birding to Mexico in recent years...with the possibility of relocation with our family of three young adults...

I wanted to experience as much as we could...in each three to five month period...in order to gauge what extended family might be like for us in Mexico. take the blinders off and 'feel

as much as possible of the 'elephant' :)

Such a crash course...led to some intense experiences...all kinds...and now in 2003, we are living back full-time in Canada...and will not be moving our family to Mexico. Although, hopefully extended visits will still be possible in the future.

When you state the 'police' presence' where you live in the States...it is easy to understand why the 'police' presence' in Mexico looks like a more acceptable alternative.

For us it is the opposite. However my viewpoint is slanted by experiences living among campesino families in the Colima countryside and torrid little Mexican beach towns...

hmmm...I feel a 'novel' coming on:) Got to see close-up and personal, the daily life and business of Mexicans...in the raw...got to go now...but as you can probably see...I've got a lot of 'untold' tales to tell. ALthough whether I will tell them here... or not...remains to be seen.

Saludos Wendy

I

Georgia

Apr 3, 2003, 11:39 AM

Post #15 of 21 (1607 views)

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Re: [wendy devlin] When we each contribute our experiences...

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All politics is local, as they say. Yet, not too far from you is that infamous "pig farm" and the Sikh terrorists who blew up the Air India flight. Yet you, correctly, fee safe. Maybe, it's just that life is capricious. Be prudent but not paranoid, etc. etc. and live while you breathe.

By the way, the 10 kids will NOT be coming to Mexico .... well, maybe one or two.

Georgia

alex .

Apr 3, 2003, 11:45 AM

Post #16 of 21 (1606 views)

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Re: [Uncle Donnie] I follow my neighbor's lead:

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They have bars on their windows that cost alot of money, so I installed some.
They disconnect the car's battery at night and either run a chain behind the car or chain the suspension down to an iron ring in the pavement, so I do all three.
The same folks I see at church in the daytime I don't see wandering around at 2 am, so I don't either.
When the cops knock on the door asking for a propina for vigilancia, the neighbors tell them to get lost, so do I.

So you see, wherever you are , the neighbors are a great resource.
Alex

Uncle Donnie

Apr 3, 2003, 3:19 PM

Post #17 of 21 (1593 views)

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Re: [alex .] I follow my neighbor's lead:

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Precisely, Alex. My neighbors are much more cautious than I am. Is border town crime more prevalent among the general population than in other areas, from your experience, or is most of it directed at day trippers?

And Wendy, as I've said before, you've done a great job with your writing so far. Don't stop! I think most of us love the up close and personals.

Shameless self-promotion:
http://www.headformexico.com

raferguson

Apr 3, 2003, 4:54 PM

Post #18 of 21 (1585 views)

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Re: [Uncle Donnie] Disregarding and believing...

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I don't think that I have ever seen crime statistics broken down by expatriates vs. citizens. I think that on rare occasions I have seen statistics that allege to represent tourist crimes. The big issue is failure to report crime, most tourists don't know how to report, or think that it is just a waste of time. The failure to report crime is probably the biggest weakness of most crime statistics. If the crime is not reported to the police it never enters the official statistics. I have one survey that says that 66% of crimes are not reported, higher in the DF.

Statistics are often controversial. One can read criticism of official crime statistics from non-governmental organizations. Governments often attack the statistics produced by non-governmental organizations, especially if it makes them look bad, and have even been known to attack the motives of the organization publishing the statistics.

Official crime statistics are usually reported by political subdivisions, such as states, municipios, or delegations.

The other kind of crime statistic is what is called a victimization survey. In this type of survey, they ask people questions like "Have you been a victim of crime in the last 12 months?" They are supposed to question people at random. But what do you do about the people who decline to answer the survey? I have a report of this type, based on a professional survey of 35000 people, but it is only broken down by state, not by municipio. It is interesting, however, and helps sort the higher crime states, like Mexico DF, from the lower crime states, such as Tlaxcala.

In most cases, the public's perception of crime mirrors the number of crimes reported, but there are some exceptions. For example, Nayarit was found to be high in number of crimes reported and high in percentage committed by violence or threats of violence, but low in public perception of insecurity. How does one explain that? Do the local newspapers not report crime in Nayarit? Maybe the sample size was too small. Oaxaca has the reverse situation, low crime but high perception of insecurity, perhaps caused by the higher than average percentage of crimes committed by violence or threats of violence.

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Uncle Donnie

Apr 3, 2003, 7:26 PM

Post #19 of 21 (1576 views)

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Exactly, Richard. The very circumstances you're reporting are what makes this entire discussion fall back on anecdotal information.

I gave a book; I think titled "The World's Most Dangerous Places", to a friend so I'm giving this to you from memory. The author stated that Jalisco State was the most dangerous region of Mexico. He attributed much of the danger to drugs and dealers. I personally have no idea where this guy got his info but from the things I see and what I read, I'd say he's way off.

Anyway, from my observations the Lakeside area is very safe for those who want to retire down here. Disclaimer: I'm not in real estate, own nothing down here, and have no vested interest in whether anyone moves here or not. Just passin' on my impressions.

This has been an excellent exchange. Thanks to those who joined in.

Shameless self-promotion:
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raferguson

Apr 4, 2003, 9:18 AM

Post #20 of 21 (1556 views)

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On the large victimization study, Jalisco was 8 out of 32, so higher than average crime rate.

Looking at the list, most of the higher crime states have very large metropolitan areas, such as Mexico City or Tijuana. Large cities generally have a higher crime rate than rural areas, worldwide. The large population and higher crime rate tend to cause the city crime rate to drive the state crime rate. The top five crime states are the DF, Morelos, Baja California, Chihuahua, and Mexico state. Since Guadalajara is the second largest city in Mexico, the fact that Jalisco is not closer to the top of the list suggests that Guadalajara probably has a lower crime rate than Mexico City, Tijuana, Juarez, or Cuernavaca.

If you look at the rates rather than the ranking, the DF is in a class by itself, with all other states spread out more or less as one would expect. If you throw out the outliers, the highest and lowest states, which is a legitimate statistical approach, the difference in the crime rates between the 2nd highest and 2nd lowest state is around 3.5 to 1, so there are substantial differences in the crime rates between high and low crime states. Those concerned about crime could move to Tlaxcala, at the bottom of the crime rate list and near the bottom of the perceived insecurity list.

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elcomputo

Apr 8, 2003, 12:43 AM

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Hi,

You are probably correct concerning the "bad influence" of young gangsters coming down from Los Angeles and corrupting the local scene. I had heard this some years back concerning El Salvador. Salvadorian kids had been brought up to the L.A. area to escape the civil war down there. They were exposed to the gang activities in L.A. Once arrested, they would be deported to El Salvador because they did not hold US citizenship. Back in the old country (where they were actually foreigners now), they imported the skills they had learned on the streets of the San Fernando Valley.

Then, too, the drug trade carries with it all kinds of corrupting influences that are especially devastating to people living in poverty.

The thing that puzzles me is the amount of gun violence in Mexico. Does this go back to the days of the Mexican frontier? Or is it something which grew with the drug trade? It's easy to understand why gun violence is so prevalent in the US, given the ease of purchasing (and stealing) handguns. The statistic is that there is one handgun for every American citizen. But why are guns so available in Mexico?

Martin