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Kimpatsu Hekigan

May 7, 2004, 1:13 PM

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Will global warming reverse the tide of immigration from Mexico?

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A new Hollywood movie is about to be released, The Day After Tommorow, that posits that global warming will actually trigger a new ice age!

And it'll happen quick, suddenly, like within the space of a year or two. The film's taking a lot of criticism from scientists, but not for the concept, rather only for the timeline. See here:

http://news.yahoo.com/...imate_change_movie_5

Anyway, one line in this article caught my eye:

Quote

In the movie, human activity helps trigger the runaway cascade of climate events. Its toll is illustrated in part by the refugees who, in a wry reversal of current immigration patterns, escape the deep freeze by streaming south across the U.S. border with Mexico. (my emphasis)

I already consider myself a "climate refugee," but it's interesting to speculate about what would happen if the immigration tide were to be reversed in the future.

-- K.H.

P.S. More here:

http://www.unknowncountry.com/news/?id=3774

TomG

May 7, 2004, 1:41 PM

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Re: [kimpatsu_hekigan] Will global warming reverse the tide of immigration from Mexico?

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In Reply To

it's interesting to speculate about what would happen if the immigration tide were to be reversed in the future.

Probably starvation. But let's hope the New Ice Age would include an increase in rain in Mexico; otherwise it would be thirst, contamination and starvation - if the social unrest didn't get you first.

It's probably better to try to work positively with what we've got toward a more sustainable future.

tonyburton

May 7, 2004, 2:11 PM

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Re: [kimpatsu_hekigan] Will global warming reverse the tide of immigration from Mexico?

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Opinions will differ, but a short editorial in the April 24-30 New Scientist argues that even the concept is wrong. It quotes Andrew Weaver of the University of Victoria (Canada) as concluding, after reviewing existing research, that "it is safe to say that global warming will not lead to the onset of a new ice age." The editorial goes on to point out that the film's budget of $120 million would fund Weaver's research team for life, ten times over, and might "finally tell us what global warming will do to the North Atlantic". I guess it all comes down to priorities!

Carol Schmidt

May 7, 2004, 2:44 PM

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Re: [tonyburton] Will global warming reverse the tide of immigration from Mexico?

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Just a few weeks ago a study commissioned for the Pentagon reached the same conclusions, that global warming could indeed lead to an ice age that could happen very quickly, in years, not centuries. Many people attacked that study for its worst case scenario presentations, but its supporters noted that the Pentagon had a duty to at least look at worst case scenarios, so the country wouldn't be caught off guard just in case the worst happened. Many scientists are saying that global weather patterns have been messed up by global warming, though.

Yes, a new ice age could bring global chaos, riots and starvation, and it very well could happen that richer people could stream into areas closer to the equator, trampling those who already live there. Would more rain fall into these countries such as Mexico? No one knows, no one knows whether any of this will happen in our age, or ever. But I do believe we should all be doing our little bits for the ecology, for many reasons, not the least of which is, "just in case"!

Carol Schmidt

mariemcc

May 7, 2004, 2:57 PM

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Re: [kimpatsu_hekigan] Will global warming reverse the tide of immigration from Mexico?

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Will global warming reverse the tide of immigration from Mexico? Mexicans are leaving Mexico because of economics, not because of the climate. Would a global climate shift cause more jobs to be created in Mexico so that Mexicans would stay in Mexico? Unlikely.

If you mean will it reverse the tide of immigration TO Mexico by people wishing to escape a cold climate, it might, if climate is the primary reason foreigners are moving to Mexico.