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johang

May 30, 2011, 1:20 PM

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Tourism recovering??

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There have been lots of reports of tourism bouncing back so I have been looking for the raw data to support that claim. Ric Hoffman pointed me at the very best source just the other day. Thanks Ric! Unfortunately the news is not as good as I had hoped. The 12% improvement is substantial but as the graph below shows it is 12% better than an absolutely abysmal 2009.
There was lots of other interesting information like where they all came from.

Read the full report on the Jaltemba Jalapeño.

As always I would greatly appreciate any corrections to my interpretation of the data and other insights that you guys may have.

Johan....If we all do a little we can do a lot. Visit our little corner of paradise at the Jaltemba Jalapeño.

Vichil

May 30, 2011, 6:47 PM

Post #2 of 15 (2288 views)

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Re: [johang] Tourism recovering??

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There was an article in May in one of the Chiapas paper announcing a 17 % increase over last year (2010).

chinagringo

May 30, 2011, 6:50 PM

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Re: [johang] Tourism recovering??

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"Figures lie and liars figure".

Anyone who was/is into mathematics knows how to manipulate numbers to make them speak to the agenda!
Regards,
Neil
Albuquerque, NM

Reefhound

May 30, 2011, 7:06 PM

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Re: [chinagringo] Tourism recovering??

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What would you suggest as an alternative?

La Isla

May 30, 2011, 7:07 PM

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Re: [chinagringo] Tourism recovering??

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In Reply To

"Figures lie and liars figure".

Anyone who was/is into mathematics knows how to manipulate numbers to make them speak to the agenda!

Why assume this is the case with the information that Vichil has posted? Why so cynical, chinagringo?

tashby

May 30, 2011, 7:12 PM

Post #6 of 15 (2276 views)

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Re: [chinagringo] Tourism recovering??

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Looks like raw data to me, too, assuming it's accurate. Just look at that Swine Flu/H1N1 barranca.

chinagringo

May 30, 2011, 8:18 PM

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Re: [La Isla] Tourism recovering??

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Didn't intend to be cynical but more of a SA comment! When I see statistics to make a positive or negative point, I have a tendency to view with a cautious eye.
Regards,
Neil
Albuquerque, NM

johang

May 31, 2011, 6:47 AM

Post #8 of 15 (2207 views)

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Re: [Vichil] Tourism recovering??

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In Reply To

There was an article in May in one of the Chiapas paper announcing a 17 % increase over last year (2010).

They may have been referring to Inmigrantes but then they may also just have grabbed the most spectacular number they could find to (as said earlier) suit their particular agenda. If they were looking to be spectacular they could have said 28% which is the increase in out of country travel by Inmigrados in the first quarter of 2011. I do know that finding the raw data helps me to understand what is behind the headlines.

Here are the first quarter figure which I am currently looking at. There are more of those figures from the first quarter INM report digested a bit but not yet analyzed.

Johan....If we all do a little we can do a lot. Visit our little corner of paradise at the Jaltemba Jalapeño.

Vichil

May 31, 2011, 7:00 AM

Post #9 of 15 (2201 views)

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Re: [johang] Tourism recovering??

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They were referring to tourism into the State which mostly goes to San Cristobal and Palenque. I have notice a large number of people coming this year around Semana Santa, I never saw the town so packed. The increase was pretty obvious this year . I have a few friends who rent houses and I know some people who own small hotels and they also noticed the increase so as far as the numbers in Chiapas are concerned I believe there was an increase so far.
Next year , I also think we will seem a big tourist increase as people will want to be at Maya center for "the end of the earth".

tonyburton

May 31, 2011, 7:43 AM

Post #10 of 15 (2181 views)

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Re: [Vichil] Tourism recovering??

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Because of how the data are compiled, state figures for tourism are essentially guesstimates (entries and exits to the state are not recorded in their entirety), unlike the federal numbers which are based on a more-or-less complete record of all entries and exits. As a result, state figures should be treated with a degree of suspicion, unless they are known to be based on a reliable sampling method.

esperanza

May 31, 2011, 7:56 AM

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Re: [tonyburton] Tourism recovering??

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And I hate to sound like a cynical naysayer...but...many of my friends who are involved in the tourism industry, people who work in all areas of tourism from the Secretaría de Turismo to travel agencies, say that tourism in Mexico continues to be very, very light. Hotel occupancy continues to be substantially below normal (below 30%) except, as Vichil mentioned, during special holidays like Semana Santa. Government statistics and statistics published by companies hoping to attract more tourism are often either inflated or are outright lies: those entities have a lot to gain by "showing" that tourism is up. I.e., if all those other people are now going to Mexico, then it must be fine for me to go, too.

http://www.mexicocooks.typepad.com

tonyburton

May 31, 2011, 8:08 AM

Post #12 of 15 (2162 views)

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Re: [esperanza] Tourism recovering??

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The real question is, inevitably, what does "normal" mean?
Rates of increase/decrease all depend on which point is taken as the starting point - 2007?, 2008?, 2009?, 2010? average of several years? etc.
There are many other possible complications.
For example, when comparing one month with the same month in a previous year, the tourism figures may reflect how many weekends the month had in that year, and so on.

Reefhound

May 31, 2011, 8:34 AM

Post #13 of 15 (2144 views)

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Re: [esperanza] Tourism recovering??

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From all the various stories and "facts" reported over the past year, my feeling is that tourism to packaged destinations like Cancun and Cabo are up while tourism to "off the beaten path" locations is way down. Certain locations and segments appear to have been decimated, like the RV industry and border excursions.

Casa

May 31, 2011, 8:36 AM

Post #14 of 15 (2140 views)

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Re: [esperanza] Tourism recovering??

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I completely agree with esperanza, that some of numbers provided by the government are most likely manipulated, inflated or outright lies. In addition to the reasons esperanza cites, it is important that the new secretaria of turismo (just over a year in the position) and the Calderon pet program “El Año del Turismo” are not seen as failures.

An article in “El Financiero” suggests that tourism for the first quarter is down when compared to the same periods of the years of 2007 to 2010. Instead of the number of visitors the article uses dollars as a measuring stick. After all, it is the dollars or income from tourism that is important. It’s nice that lots of people come to Mexico but it’s more important that they spend lots of money while they are here.

“In the first quarter of the year the surplus in the tourism balance of the country registered a decline of 20.45% in 2.36 billion dollars to January - March 2010 to 1.62 billion dollars in the same period of 2011.”

El Año del Turismo amenazado

Números negativos para el turismo
Claudia Alcántara
En el primer trimestre del año el superávit en la balanza turística del país registró una disminución de 20. 45 por ciento al pasar de 2 mil 36 millones de dólares en enero^marzo de 2010 a mil 620 millones en igual periodo de 2011.

http://www.emedios.mx/...17/3c79fa-97bf09.pdf

(This post was edited by Casa on May 31, 2011, 8:39 AM)

johang

Jun 1, 2011, 8:19 PM

Post #15 of 15 (1944 views)

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Re: [Reefhound] Tourism recovering??

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I agree with that assessment. It is certainly the general feeling of folks I talk to in our "off the beaten path" corner of paradise.

There is good news from Expedia and Visa which would suggest the same. i.e. I doubt many folks book accommodation in La Peñita and Guayabitos through Expedia.

But the news is very good:

Mexico Tourism Surge Brings Hopes of Strengthening Int’l Recovery
By Susie Albin-Najera On May 31, 2011

Travel giant Expedia has reported strong growth in tourism to Mexico in the past 12 months, so much so that the firm has bumped Mexico up into its top 3 destinations worldwide. Expedia owned Hotels.com reported that bookings have increased by 25% in the past year, according to a report by the firm.

The report also quotes credit card operator Visa stating that “people spent 10% more (from $4 billion in 2009 to $4.4 billion in 2010) on their credit cards” in Mexico during the same period.

Read more: http://themexicoreport.com/2011/05/31/mexico-tourism/

Johan....If we all do a little we can do a lot. Visit our little corner of paradise at the Jaltemba Jalapeño.