Forums > General > General Forum

tonyburton

Feb 10, 2011, 7:53 AM

Post #1 of 23 (4713 views)

Shortcut

Stratfor article: "Mexico's gun supply and 90% myth"

Can't Post | Private Reply

Stratfor has just released an article (a piece?) about Mexico's gun supply, including an examination of what Stratfor calls "the 90% myth".
- http://www.stratfor.com/...-and-90-percent-myth
Interesting reading, with echoes of some of the comments made on threads here in the past few weeks.

PS This should not be seen as an excuse to start attacking those who don't agree with your opinions about gun control and gun sales, but as an opportunity to discuss the validity of the arguments advanced in the Stratfor article.

Bennie García

Feb 10, 2011, 8:52 AM

Post #2 of 23 (4677 views)

Shortcut

Re: [tonyburton] Stratfor article: "Mexico's gun supply and 90% myth"

Can't Post | Private Reply

In Reply To

The GAO explicity claims 87% of the weapons seized and traced originated in the USA. There is no attempt at deception.

johnv

Feb 10, 2011, 9:05 AM

Post #3 of 23 (4666 views)

Shortcut

Re: [tonyburton] Stratfor article: "Mexico's gun supply and 90% myth"

Can't Post | Private Reply

All I know is that I have had a gun in my house literally my entire life, except now that I live in Mexico, and I don't like it. My gun collection sits in a safe in the USA, while I depend on "Bear Spray" to defend myself, and knowing Mexico, even that is probably illegal.

I wouldn't doubt it if the figures have been rigged, in favor of gun prohibition.

joaquinx

Feb 10, 2011, 9:11 AM

Post #4 of 23 (4661 views)

Shortcut

Re: [tonyburton] Stratfor article: "Mexico's gun supply and 90% myth"

Can't Post | Private Reply

What an example of the manipulation of statistics. Only 7,200 weapons of the 30,000 were submitted to ATF for identification and of this number only 4,000 could be traced and 3,800(87%) were from the US. The article then determined that the 90-87% figure was wrong and only 12% of ALL the weapons were from the US.

If the 7,200 is a good sampling of all the weapons seized, then the 3,800 should be around 53%. But if the 4,000 was the good sample, then it would be 95%. The author assumes that the 3,800 was sampled from the 30,000 and not from the 7,200. Big error. There is another error regarding the 3,200 that could not be traced. The author simply tosses this number away assuming that they did not originate from the US.

My best guess is that the percentage would be somewhere between 53% and 87%. Even at 53%, this is a huge number of weapons supplied from US sources (over 15,000).

(This post was edited by joaquinx on Feb 10, 2011, 9:13 AM)

chinagringo

Feb 10, 2011, 9:40 AM

Post #5 of 23 (4654 views)

Shortcut

Re: [tonyburton] Stratfor article: "Mexico's gun supply and 90% myth"

Can't Post | Private Reply

There is a very well known quote: "There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics."(author in dispute)

Taking this statement at face value would or should make any thinking person to view any discussion with skepticism when facts, figures or statistics are used to make a point. Mathematical gyrations have been used since the beginning of time to slant, distort or disparage points of view. In 1954, Darrell Huff wrote: How to Lie with Statistics and anyone who reads this book could not help but look at the use of statistics with a cautious eye.

Going to the Stratfor report, I personally have to disagree with some of their extrapolations and conclusions. To base their conclusions on such a small sampling appears similar to conducting a "scientific political poll" based on the responses of say 1000 people when measuring the thoughts of millions. One factor that I question is: what are the estimates of the total numbers of weaponry currently in the hands of the cartels? We see the press photos of arrests or raids often with large quantities of weaponry but we have no basis for measuring the overall access to large arsenals and just how much firepower is out there.
Regards,
Neil
Albuquerque, NM

DavidHF

Feb 10, 2011, 10:43 AM

Post #6 of 23 (4636 views)

Shortcut

Re: [johnv] Stratfor article: "Mexico's gun supply and 90% myth"

Can't Post | Private Reply

In Reply To

It is legal for you to own a gun for "home protection."

jerezano

Feb 10, 2011, 11:51 AM

Post #7 of 23 (4611 views)

Shortcut

Re: [DavidHF] Stratfor article: "Mexico's gun supply and 90% myth"

Can't Post | Private Reply

Hello All,

Statistics can be manipulated to lie. Either one way or the other. In this article I see no bias, although one poster seems to think it is for anti-gun legislation.

No matter. The point is that gun running from the USA to Mexico whether a small percentage or a large percentage of the illegal guns in Mexico is prevalent and needs to be controlled. Do not read this Stratfor article as saying that it is not necessary to control that gun running. Do not read this Stratfor article as saying anti-gun legislation needs to be passed in the USA.

What needs to be done is to use existing laws and controls, modify them as necessary and then strictly enforce them. Here on the Texas border, and I am assuming elsewhere, that is finally being done with inspections (spot of course) of outgoing cars. Too the state government is cracking down on gun dealers who conveniently report "robberies" and then deliver the "stolen"guns to individuals without proper documentation. Arizona seems to be quite lax in this.

Now does this in any way have an effect on our Constitutional right to bear arms? Not that I can see. Modifications of existing laws just might make it harder to buy arms but a lot more paperwork and identification etc., doesn't take away that right.

As ever, jerezano

turnabout

Feb 11, 2011, 6:03 AM

Post #8 of 23 (4520 views)

Shortcut

Re: [tonyburton] Stratfor article: "Mexico's gun supply and 90% myth"

Can't Post | Private Reply

Who paid for this independent study? Let me guess...

turnabout

Feb 11, 2011, 6:08 AM

Post #9 of 23 (4519 views)

Shortcut

Re: [johnv] Stratfor article: "Mexico's gun supply and 90% myth"

Can't Post | Private Reply

In Reply To

I had guns my whole life also, in fact I have a few in storage in Texas. I respect the laws of Mexico because I love the country and the people. If you don´t like it you can leave at any time. What do you need to defend yourself from? your bad attitude?

johnv

Feb 11, 2011, 6:20 AM

Post #10 of 23 (4510 views)

Shortcut

Re: [turnabout] Stratfor article: "Mexico's gun supply and 90% myth"

Can't Post | Private Reply

You know your "love it or leave it" comment reminds me of 60s and 70s rednecks.

I am not a government suck up, and I don't care what government we are talking about.

You ask what is there to defend yourself against? Are you sleeping with your head up your butt. Mexico has degenerated to just about the most dangerous place on the planet. The kidnapping rate is unequalled anywhere in the world. One can no longer drive out of the country safely. It's rather obvious.

donemry

Feb 11, 2011, 7:42 AM

Post #11 of 23 (4496 views)

Shortcut

Re: [turnabout] Stratfor article: "Mexico's gun supply and 90% myth"

Can't Post | Private Reply

Stratfor is not a funded "think tank" It is a for profit business that sells information.

It would seem that many of the posters here are ignoring the other sources of weaponary that are available to the cartels. Many of those are listed in the report as possible sources.

richmx2

Feb 11, 2011, 10:53 AM

Post #12 of 23 (4451 views)

Shortcut

Re: [donemry] Stratfor article: "Mexico's gun supply and 90% myth"

Can't Post | Private Reply

One problem with the Stratford report I noticed is that it mixes "weapons" of all kinds (including explosives stolen from mining operations) with firearms. And, it seems to confuse place of manufacture with source of entry. The further one gets from the probable source (i.e., the U.S. and ports) the fewer high-powered weapons show up, and the more you see things that could very well be from "other sources".

Of course, firearms are probably being diverted from "legitimate" Mexican purchasers as well — private security is poorly regulated here. And, while it's possible that "other sources" firearms are also showing up, there is no reason NOT to complain about the single largest source... and about the Bulgarian, etc. AKs that likely entered through the U.S.

http://mexfiles.net
http://voiceofmexico.com
http://editorialmazatlan.com

turnabout

Feb 11, 2011, 11:30 AM

Post #13 of 23 (4441 views)

Shortcut

Re: [johnv] Stratfor article: "Mexico's gun supply and 90% myth"

Can't Post | Private Reply

Well john, I do not live in fear. I do not feel I need to have a gun on my hip. You may feel fear, That is your problem. Unless you carry 24: 7 the gun will not be there when you feel you need it, I have been down that road and have the scars to prove it. Hell, You do not even live in Mexico I would bet. Just another wanna be... Scared of dying and scared of living

La Isla

Feb 11, 2011, 1:01 PM

Post #14 of 23 (4422 views)

Shortcut

Re: [johnv] Stratfor article: "Mexico's gun supply and 90% myth"

Can't Post | Private Reply

In Reply To

You ask what is there to defend yourself against? Are you sleeping with your head up your butt. Mexico has degenerated to just about the most dangerous place on the planet. The kidnapping rate is unequalled anywhere in the world. One can no longer drive out of the country safely. It's rather obvious.

Johnv seems to be fond of hyperbole!

johnv

Feb 12, 2011, 6:39 AM

Post #15 of 23 (4368 views)

Shortcut

Re: [turnabout] Stratfor article: "Mexico's gun supply and 90% myth"

Can't Post | Private Reply

I'm not living in fear, it's more like living in disgust of Mexico.

I have lived in Mexico a total of 12 years and 5 months, and I currently live here. My travel experience with Mexico dates to 1972.

Turnabout, I will not be responding further to your nitpick posts.

joaquinx

Feb 12, 2011, 6:52 AM

Post #16 of 23 (4363 views)

Shortcut

Re: [johnv] Stratfor article: "Mexico's gun supply and 90% myth"

Can't Post | Private Reply

Quote

The kidnapping rate is unequalled anywhere in the world. One can no longer drive out of the country safely. It's rather obvious.

I believe that johnv hasn't considered Venezuela nor Columbia. Any African country should be in this mix.The only reason why so many gringos are living in Mexico is that it is so very close to the US and Canada. This is also the very reason why the drug traffic is so heavy. Where you have drugs, you have lots of money. Where you have lots of money, you have guns - lots of guns.

chinagringo

Feb 12, 2011, 7:35 AM

Post #17 of 23 (4347 views)

Shortcut

Re: [johnv] Stratfor article: "Mexico's gun supply and 90% myth"

Can't Post | Private Reply

Before making such all encompassing statements about the kidnapping rate, you may wish to check the rate for Phoenix, AZ.
Regards,
Neil
Albuquerque, NM

arbon

Feb 12, 2011, 9:29 AM

Post #18 of 23 (4325 views)

Shortcut

Re: [chinagringo] Stratfor article: "Mexico's gun supply and 90% myth"

Can't Post |

In Reply To

Before making such all encompassing statements about the kidnapping rate, you may wish to check the rate for Phoenix, AZ............Good Idea.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

joaquinx

Feb 12, 2011, 11:24 AM

Post #19 of 23 (4301 views)

Shortcut

Re: [chinagringo] Stratfor article: "Mexico's gun supply and 90% myth"

Can't Post | Private Reply

Will someone please "check" the rate. From my search on the Internet, there is no standard for counting kidnappings. Not even FBI. Many go unreported and I suppose that goes along with unidentifiable weapons seized by the Mexican army. All I hear is more jabajaba wrapped in the guise of statistics.

arbon

Feb 12, 2011, 1:36 PM

Post #20 of 23 (4283 views)

Shortcut

Re: [joaquinx] Stratfor article: "Mexico's gun supply and 90% myth"

Can't Post |

¿Is it possible for "Kidnapping" to be used for "Tax Evasion" and "Money Laundering"?
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Riverman

Feb 12, 2011, 1:42 PM

Post #21 of 23 (4280 views)

Shortcut

Re: [arbon] Stratfor article: "Mexico's gun supply and 90% myth"

Can't Post | Private Reply

Now that really puts a different spin on things, hmmmm.

salto_jorge

Feb 22, 2011, 9:55 AM

Post #22 of 23 (4097 views)

Shortcut

Re: [Riverman] Stratfor article: "Mexico's gun supply and 90% myth"

Can't Post | Private Reply

I just returned from a rural area in mexico within 100 miles of the US border.
The once friendly area (three years ago) is no more, if you do not have ties to the area one should not be there.
The mountains in the copper mining districts are are now home to those carrying AK-10's.
The mountains and trails are monitored 24x7, some rumors of night scopes were made.
I never saw a gun while there but heard comments about 10's being better then the junk R-15's.
This would make one think that the R-15's cannot go without constant cleaning and jam from the sand and dirt blowing around all the time.

So where are all the AK-10's coming from ?

As an observer all one can think is that both Mexico and US have lost control of the entire area.
The area has been lost before a war was ever declared, seems like those who are working are on the same side and its not the side of the people or country. No one goes outside once it gets dark, everyone is afraid of everyone else and lips are mostly sealed if you want to stay alive. Before going anywhere outside, I always made a point of telling everyone that I was going to the river or to the mountains so that those monitoring everything knew it was me and not a stranger.

(This post was edited by salto_jorge on Feb 22, 2011, 10:04 AM)

richmx2

Feb 22, 2011, 12:13 PM

Post #23 of 23 (4056 views)

Shortcut

Re: [arbon] Stratfor article: "Mexico's gun supply and 90% myth"

Can't Post | Private Reply

I wish I had saved the article, but there was a study back when Colombia was the king of kidnapping countries, and an eye-popping number were "auto-sequestrados" of various sorts. A good percentage were arranged by future ex-wives, as sort of a creative form of alimony.

Jefe Diego's kidnapping (which has never made sense) always looked to me like a way of spiriting assets out of the country into untraceable foreign accounts... to paraphrase the great María Felix, "ransom money doesn't buy freedom, of course, but it sure calms the nerves... when the tax man comes calling."

http://mexfiles.net
http://voiceofmexico.com
http://editorialmazatlan.com