PESO - banking question

PESO - banking question

What is the outlook for the Peso movement and inflation in Mexico. Standing now at almost 11.5 it seems to be moving quickly - or at least more quickly - than recently. ALthough I will goggle for Peso background, I would like to know if anyone has been thinking about it. Thanks.

Jul 26, 2004, 7:28 PM

Post #2 of 47 (1947 views)

Re: [NEOhio] PESO - banking question

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Anyone who even pretends to know what you are talking about much less try to answer the questions as to the future of the movement of the Peso vis-a-vis other currencies is a blathering idiot. However, if you have money to spare, I have a toll pike between Jocotepec and El Chante I would like for you to finance.

NEOhio

Jul 26, 2004, 7:55 PM

Post #3 of 47 (1941 views)

Re: [Bubba] PESO - banking question

If I pay about $280 USD for 3000 pesos in March and now only pay about $265 USD - what economic phenomena is that and what does it mean for MExico.

I am sure you have the capability and background to explain the basics of the economics, and I would appreciate your explanation, instead of the verbal shove you gave me.

Nobody's trying to predict or anticipate anything. I was just asking for those of you who live in Mexico, and have for sometime, to share your thoughts on the Mexican economy as you participate in it as expatriates. When I first started exploring Mexico as a site to move to, the peso was at 9.8 and now not even two years later it is 11.5. This has to be somewhat hard on the Mexican population, but good for Americans on a budget, becuase I do not read about similar increases in costs of daily goods. I am not concerned about specific budget issues, just interested in whether or not you all talk about what's doing, and what the talk is.

Jul 26, 2004, 8:16 PM

Post #4 of 47 (1930 views)

Re: [NEOhio] PESO - banking question

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NE:

Forgive my rudeness. I, of couse, am the idiot. I brought down some USD three years ago at 9.0:1 USD:Pesos. Since then, that exchange rate has ventured to about 11:1. That is a huge and unnecessary loss for me . What I meant to convey was that even the most astute economist cannot tell you how to manage expatriation of currency. There is exchange risk and, more importantly, sovereign risk neither of which can be measured accurately nor predicted. It would be wise to "dollar cost average" your money into the country a little bit at a time and forget listening to others who, as I, have no idea of what they are talking about. I knew this when I came here and acted frivolously anyway. My loss.

Edited per Bubba's request.

(This post was edited by Rolly on Jul 27, 2004, 8:13 AM)

NEOhio

Jul 26, 2004, 8:31 PM

Post #5 of 47 (1925 views)

Re: [Bubba] PESO - banking question

Well Bubba - sorry for your loss. You certainly do try to get somebody's goat with your posts, not just mine, what's a herd of goats called anyway?

Oh well, maybe someone else will weigh in with some thoughts about the peso.
Saw Farenheit 9/11 yesterday - interesting, hadn't seen a Michael Moore filmumentary before - how soon do you get films down there?

Apparently, when you told me no one in their right mind would boat on the lake, someone from vista del Lago does now to the island according to you, so maybe there is a possibility of it yet.

I, however, who love Cherries Jubilee, and bananas foster, am gonna get the last of the onion and creamed herring, that final dripple of martini in the bottom of the shaker, and go up and turn on CNN for some snippets of news.

Later, Anita

Rolly

Jul 26, 2004, 8:45 PM

Post #6 of 47 (1915 views)

Re: [NEOhio] PESO - banking question

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Anita, of course Bubba is right that no one can forecast the wanderings of the Peso vis-à-vis the dollar. The only really sure forecast is that it will have ups and downs. Historically, the trend has been a continuing weakening against the dollar. This does not provide a free ride for those of us who live on dollars because the cost of living in Mexico responds to the value of peso -- perhaps not always in direct proportion or even immediately, but it does react. For example, the cost of cement and steel has increased dramatically in the past few months. Gasoline and bottled gas are also increasing, although not so wildly as in the USA. Electricity took a big hit a year or so ago. Food prices are easing upward.

While these changes in the economy have some impact on those of us who live on dollars, the impact is much greater on those who depend upon pesos.

I can’t speak to the changes, if any, that have come to average take home pay except to say that over the course of the two years that I had active building projects going here in Lerdo, we had to increase the pay of our workers to keep them and to hire new workers. For example, when we began, the pay for a mason was 1200 pesos per week. Two years later when we need to hire a new mason, the going rate was 1500 pesos, and one guy would only work for 1700.

Rolly Pirate

E-visit me http://Rollybrook.com
On Facebook as Rolly Brook

(This post was edited by Rolly on Jul 26, 2004, 8:49 PM)

Jul 27, 2004, 6:29 AM

Post #7 of 47 (1878 views)

Re: [Rolly] PESO - banking question

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"For example, the cost of cement and steel has increased dramatically in the past few months. Gasoline and bottled gas are also increasing."

And this will continue as China continues its massive infrastructure building as she moves into the modern global economy. The great party we in North America have been on since WW II, when we had left all our economic competitors in shambles, is over. With the rest of the world now able to compete with us in the marketplace for natural resources, I'm thinkin' it's time to dump the SUV 'cause we're gonna look back in a year and long for the good old days of $2.00/gal gas.
"The trouble with life is there's no background music."

Jul 27, 2004, 7:48 AM

Post #8 of 47 (1860 views)

Re: [NEOhio] PESO - banking question

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NE:

I am determined to be more polite in the way I respond. No more rants.

When I arrived here three years ago, I asked the question regarding the value of the peso vs. the dollar and received seemingly erudite responses from account officers at the two local Mexican investment houses. Of course, they hadn't a clue as to the future of the peso vs. the dollar but were trying to sell investment products so I received optimistic reports although they acted responsibly and hedged their comments regarding this matter. I knew from years of experience in banking that predicting interest rates or currency exchange fluctuations was a foolish game. However, I was getting a lousy interest rate at my U.S. investment house and found I could get a rate of return five times or more greater than my return in the U.S. Since I was determined to live here for the rest of my life, I decided that the good rate of return on a conservative money market fund at the local investment house mitigated the currency exchange risk sufficiently to warrant my bringing down some money to cover living expenses, especially as I had no intention of repatriating those dollars I brought down here. I have taken current steps to further mitigate risk by using ATMs to take advantage of currently favorable exchange rates and investing funds brought in earlier in time accounts at a more favorable rate of return. We're not really talking about much money here, just a few thousand pesos. I think it unwise to bring down much money in a short time period but that is just my bias.

Incidentally, I preferred the Baked Alaska to the Cherries Jubilee on the Queen Mary in 1966 but I was young and liked the scotch and soda even better.

alex .

Jul 27, 2004, 8:01 AM

Post #9 of 47 (1854 views)

Re: [NEOhio] PESO s, we don't use them

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In Tijuana, which we all know is a special place,the Dollar is the preferred currency. The CFE is the only place we know of that insists on payment in Moneda Nacional. So the current movement of the peso works in our favor.
Alex

Jul 27, 2004, 8:48 AM

Post #10 of 47 (1838 views)

Re: [Bubba] PESO - banking question

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NO MORE RANTS FROM BUBBA?! GOD FORBID!! Your witty sarcasim keeps these forums from getting unbearably boaring. Those with thin skin will either develop an appreciation for your comments, or they can go go cry in the corner & suck their thumbs. Never apologize...your friends don't need it, & your enemies don't believe it.

Words of Wisdom from the Sage (or comino if you prefer) of Phoenix
"The trouble with life is there's no background music."

Jerry@Ajijic

Jul 27, 2004, 11:29 AM

Post #11 of 47 (1811 views)

Re: [NEOhio] PESO - banking question

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I am not sure how Cherries Jubilee, and bananas fosters got into the discussion but we have both lakeside, yum yum.

julietl

Jul 27, 2004, 1:07 PM

Post #12 of 47 (1790 views)

Re: [NEOhio] PESO - banking question

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Speaking as someone who is working in this country - the current trend is horrible.

Every 2 weeks I need to convert my paycheck into dollars because I pay my US-based mortage loan. Having to exchange with such regularity really brings home the concrete effect of a few percentage points increase.

It now takes almost 1 1/2 paychecks where it used to only take one. When I came down here it was around 10%, and the last paycheck I exchanged was at 11.53 + transfer fees.

I still find enough things that are less expensive here that we are ok, but working the same amount of hours for less & less money can be frustrating.
___________________________________________________________
___________________________________________________________

Jul 27, 2004, 1:15 PM

Post #13 of 47 (1787 views)

Re: [gbatrucks] PESO - banking question

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OK, Trucks:

You talked me into more rants but only if you agree to fix me up a mess of BBQ when y'allsuns get here.

talosian

Jul 27, 2004, 1:44 PM

Post #14 of 47 (1780 views)

Re: [Rolly] PESO - banking question

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Rolly hit it right on the head.

I was here and bought about 3-4 months ago. Fond this nice family restaurant between Ajijic and Chapala. Great food and true Mexican ambience. Lunch/Dinner was $45. When I cam back 3 weeks ago, there were little stickers over the original printed prices indicating a $10 increase. Now that is just around 25% and I don't think the change in Peso to Dollars rate did that. But I'm not an economist so what do I know.

I know LLoyd's said they have investment accounts in Pesos only bringing in just over 5%. Any gamblers here?

Spock.
"When all logical explanations have failed, we must look to the illogical for the answer.

Jul 27, 2004, 2:22 PM

Post #15 of 47 (1773 views)

Re: [Bubba] PESO - banking question

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A Carolina-style pig-pickin' is in the plannin'.
"The trouble with life is there's no background music."

Jul 27, 2004, 2:27 PM

Post #16 of 47 (1774 views)

Re: [talosian] PESO - banking question

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Bet it has something to do with the influx of gringos with greenbacks-a-plenty....basic econ 101...too many $$ chasing to few items= inflation....'course once Burger King opens the lakeside franchise & takes Bubba out of the restaurant market, prices could fall quickly.
"The trouble with life is there's no background music."

Uncle Jack

Jul 27, 2004, 2:33 PM

Post #17 of 47 (1773 views)

Re: [gbatrucks] PESO - banking question

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Bubba ain't the only one goin ta be scarfing up on them belly bomb grease burgers .

uj

johanson

Jul 27, 2004, 2:42 PM

Post #18 of 47 (1769 views)

Re: [Uncle Jack] PESO - banking question

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Gee once the Whopper is avialable lakeside, I will have much less reason to visit the states. Now all we need in Ajijic is a Costco and a Radio Shack.

The sad thing is, I am serious. I am not kidding.

Uncle Jack

Jul 27, 2004, 2:54 PM

Post #19 of 47 (1769 views)

Re: [johanson] PESO - banking question

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It appears we already have the nucleus for a fraternal organization. The Mystic Knights of the Whopper, maybe? How about PETW (People for Ethical Treatment of Whoppers)? Weekly meetings and attendance mandatory.

Of course, to keep this thread on subject, we'd have to discuss dollar/peso exchange rates.

uj

(This post was edited by Uncle Jack on Jul 27, 2004, 2:58 PM)

Jul 27, 2004, 3:42 PM

Post #20 of 47 (1750 views)

Re: [Uncle Jack] PESO - banking question

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Good Evening:

My name is Bob and I am a Whopperholic. For many years I thought that I was alone in my impulsive need for these constructions of the devil but now I know that there are other weak and despicable lowlifes hereabouts who have given up the spirit of the "Truly Committed" who would never touch the dead and rotting flesh of other creatures scarred by flames and creating a taste which could only be enjoyed by the depraved bestial ones among us who enjoy the taste of flesh torn from the living creatures whom we most admire for providing us nourishment day to day but now I am getting off course.

I simply cannot wait for Trucks to get here with his/her Carolina Pulled Pork Treat and respectfully request of Trucks that he/she invite San Francisco Jack, Jo Jo, (and other enjoyable amigos) to this party because, while Carolina Pulled Pork is good, like Scotch Whisky, it is best enjoyed in the company of other reprobrates.

What say you, Trucks?

Bubba

esperanza

Jul 27, 2004, 4:33 PM

Post #21 of 47 (1739 views)

Re: [Bubba] PESO - banking question

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<<Begs, implores, supplicates, entreats, and whines a lot for an invitation to the pig pull.>>

**as a last resort, volunteers to make co'slaw.

http://www.mexicocooks.typepad.com

(This post was edited by esperanza on Jul 27, 2004, 4:34 PM)

kirkswig

Jul 27, 2004, 5:19 PM

Post #22 of 47 (1731 views)

Re: [NEOhio] PESO - banking question

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Here is what I've been thinking about it. Please note that a) it's only now in my life that I'm becoming "financially aware", and b) I sometimes just like watching myself type.

Right now, I would take advantage of the current exchange rate, simply because it could be a lot worse. Then wait to see how everyone reacts to the U.S. increasing our debt limit in October. These are usually non-events, but this time around it's happening right before a very, very big election, so it's hard to imagine that there isn't great potential for volatility.

If the election goes off without a hitch, and there isn't controversy, then I think we'll quickly see what the markets are thinking about the dollar, so then maybe by March or April of next year we should have a good trend and some good information to go on, at which time a better dollar/peso decision might be made. However, if the election is a mess (i.e., Bush loses the popular vote but otherwise wins the election) then I think people are going to start asking questions about just how politically stable America is, and I can't see how that helps establish a positive trend for the dollar any time soon.

For what it's worth (it ain't much.)

To boldly go where no wig has gone before.

Texwheel

Jul 27, 2004, 5:39 PM

Post #23 of 47 (1721 views)

Re: [kirkswig] PESO - banking question

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The operative question in this particular case is how any particular American election, war or economic event scenario affects the position of the US dollar VS. THE MEXICAN PESO. This subject has been exhausted. Vote with your bank deposit.
Tom Williams
Georgetown, Texas
Texwheel@aol.com

NEOhio

Jul 27, 2004, 7:27 PM

Post #24 of 47 (1687 views)

Re: [Texwheel] PESO - banking question

Oh, Bubba, but I do like your rants - they are always entertaining - most often informative - - always fun to read and ever so opinionated. I was the "fastest" Whopper-maker in the region in July 1972 and eat my Whoppers extra everything and mayo for the fries (actually had to stop that years ago), so I too will look forward to a Whopper, now and again.

And a little walker Black and a splash, instead of a Mr. Pibb.

I will look forward to the next rant....and thanks to those of you who shared your thoughts, you too, Bubba, they were good to read, and a nice change from the usual FM-cellphone-$1,000 questions.

Jul 27, 2004, 7:36 PM

Post #25 of 47 (1684 views)