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Brian

Oct 26, 2009, 5:06 PM

Post #1 of 13 (510 views)

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Most victims of violent crime in Mexico not connected with narcotics

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It has often been mentioned on this board and others that the victims of the current violent crime wave are usually in one way or another associated with criminal activity and that innocent folks are unlikely to be affected. This article indicates otherwise:

90% of crime victims not linked to narco
A study by the Mexican Council for Law and Human Rights indicates that 90% of the people who have been victims of kidnapping or attacks have had no links to narcotraffic or other criminal activities. The study also shows that in the past three years, 22,875 people have disappeared at the hands of organized crime and in the past 12 months, 7,433 have been victims of the criminal gangs. M3 report.

http://www.eluniversal.com.mx/notas/635480.html

(This post was edited by tonyburton on Oct 26, 2009, 5:47 PM)

Hound Dog

Oct 26, 2009, 5:09 PM

Post #2 of 13 (499 views)

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Re: [Brian] Most victims of violent crime in Mexico not connected with narcotics

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What are you trying to say, Brian?

(This post was edited by Hound Dog on Oct 26, 2009, 5:14 PM)

Brian

Oct 26, 2009, 5:19 PM

Post #3 of 13 (489 views)

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Re: [Hound Dog] Most victims of violent crime in Mexico not connected with narcotics

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I am saying that I read this article in the newspaper and found it to be in sharp contrast with what "conventional wisdom" has been telling us about the profile and likelihood of becoming a victim of violent crime. I obviously don't know how the Human Rights Commission gathered its data, and drew its conclusions, so am in no position to challenge it. I thought that others might find it of interest as well.

Brian

(This post was edited by Brian on Oct 26, 2009, 5:44 PM)

Hound Dog

Oct 26, 2009, 5:43 PM

Post #4 of 13 (477 views)

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Re: [Brian] Most victims of violent crime in Mexico not connected with narcotics

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You are not making any sense, Brian. What are you trying to say? Spit it out.

Just what is "conventionaL wisdom?"

I find your posting to be disturbing.

There are many foreigners living in Mexico who should still be in Des Moines but if you disagree with that tell me lucidly and conventionally why you disagree rather than build sand castles and try to explain why your castles will survive the next tide.

(This post was edited by Hound Dog on Oct 26, 2009, 9:02 PM)

mazbook1

Oct 26, 2009, 6:43 PM

Post #5 of 13 (447 views)

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Re: [Brian] Most victims of violent crime in Mexico not connected with narcotics

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The problem with the article is that they say 60% of all cases are in the states most plagued by the narcotraficantes and the only "organized" crime groups they name are the major narcotraficante groups. The first paragraph and the last to directly negate each other. So much for statistics!

chinagringo

Oct 26, 2009, 6:49 PM

Post #6 of 13 (442 views)

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Re: [Hound Dog] Most victims of violent crime in Mexico not connected with narcotics

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Being a victim of a crime, bet it violent or otherwise an ANY foreign country or for that matter in one's home country seems to be the luck of the draw. After traveling the globe from age 2, I can honestly say that I have never been a victim of anything other than a petty crime. Am I lucky? Maybe but in the few instances where I was a victim of a petty crime, it was my own stupidity that put me in that place for the opportunity to exist. Relative to MX, I have never felt threatened but have been on a "low key" awareness to avoid problematic opportunities.

I think back to 2006, when we were getting ready to close on our former home in Ixtlahuacan. We met the buyers the first night at Cozumel in Chapala. He was a retiring Sheriff from Wyoming and after dinner we parted company. The next day, they related that they were nervous on the "malecon" with the people standing around. We never saw or experienced that aspect! Different interpretations for different folk?

It is a changing world out there but we only live once and we are bound and determined to enjoy ourselves!
Regards,
Neil
Albuquerque, NM

richmx2

Oct 26, 2009, 6:55 PM

Post #7 of 13 (434 views)

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Re: [mazbook1] Most victims of violent crime in Mexico not connected with narcotics

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M3 sometimes does a good job of garbling translations... it's the "Association of Former Border Patrol Agents" which is not so much a retiree group as a lobbying organization for MORE cops along the border. That said, I think what Brian's original source was trying to get across is that the majority of organized crime activity doesn't involve narcotics, but just "ordinary gangster" activities ... kidnapping, muggings, armed robbery, murder for hire, etc. OR... it's blending stats having to do with ordinary criminals with those connected with organized narcotics distributorships. Or something else.
http://mexfiles.net

arbon

Oct 26, 2009, 7:03 PM

Post #8 of 13 (432 views)

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Re: [Hound Dog] Most victims of violent crime in Mexico not connected with narcotics

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You were not connected, before you were connected. Eh
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Don't count your chickens before they lay.

Brian

Oct 26, 2009, 7:39 PM

Post #9 of 13 (421 views)

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Re: [chinagringo] Most victims of violent crime in Mexico not connected with narcotics

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Neil

Like the man you described, I also come from a career in public safety, and perhaps am more conditioned by my experiences with the criminal element in society. I have always thought that the frequently uttered mantra "you are unlikely to become a victim of violent crime if you don't get involved with drugs" is naive and, frankly, untrue. This article came from the Mexican press and, although the methodology is not detailed, clearly argues differently. I think the Human Rights Council released the report because it does not want the public to have a false sense of security and to keep the pressure by the government on the cartels who are responsible for the havoc they are reaping on Mexican society. What is being witnessed right now is not just a wave of criminals victimizing other criminals although, I am sure, that would be less problematic for most.

Mazbook1, I think that the article is somewhat mangled perhaps by sloppy editing. I think that there are two sets of statistics being addressed. First, that 90% of victims of kidnapping and other violent crimes are not themselves involved with criminal activity (other than as victims) and, second, that 60% of such incidents are committed in states where specific cartels are well established. Again, the article does not reveal how it came to its conclusions.

Inevitably, when the topic turns to crime in Mexico, foreigners begin to think about themselves and conclude correctly that, whether as tourists or full-time residents, they are statistically a very small sample within Mexican society and thus numerically not likely to be affected. Many gringos tell others that Mexico is safe and one has little chance of becoming a victim of crime if the usual precautions are followed. Nevertheless, I wouldn't tell a Mexican friend or neighbor that they needn't worry about becoming a victim of crime if they stay away from drug dealers etc. They wouldn't tell you to your face, but they would think that you need your head examined.

Brian

gpkisner

Oct 27, 2009, 6:36 AM

Post #10 of 13 (349 views)

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Re: [Brian] Most victims of violent crime in Mexico not connected with narcotics

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I think what most people mean is that the crazy murders occuring in Mexico (decapitations, hangings, etc.) are the result of battles between narco groups for power/control. Other crimes (kidnapping, extorsions, robberies, etc.) have victims who are truly "innocent". This second group of crimes does, indeed, involve non-narco victims. The narco groups are involved in ALL these crimes--the criminals who kidnap/extort and the criminals who sell/export drugs are working for the same narco leaders. Since many--if not most--crimes are not reported to the police in Mexico, statistics are hard to verify with regard to any of this.

Peter

Oct 27, 2009, 7:22 AM

Post #11 of 13 (345 views)

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Re: [Brian] Most victims of violent crime in Mexico not connected with narcotics

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In Reply To

90% of crime victims not linked to narco
A study by the Mexican Council for Law and Human Rights indicates that 90% of the people who have been victims of kidnapping or attacks have had no links to narcotraffic or other criminal activities.

Statistically I am safer if I hang with the narco crowd and other criminals and am ten times more likely to be a victim of violent crime if I have no links to such people? Interesting.

I wonder if police were included in this count of innocent victims who had no link to the criminals.

(This post was edited by Peter on Oct 27, 2009, 7:29 AM)

richmx2

Oct 27, 2009, 1:56 PM

Post #12 of 13 (288 views)

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Re: [gpkisner] Most victims of violent crime in Mexico not connected with narcotics

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It's a truism from reporters that "if it bleeds, it leads". The narco crimes are splashier, and get media attention... and probably inflates the overall violence rate. And, after all, gangsters are gangsters... just because they're ALSO in the narcotics export biz doesn't mean they're aren't going to provide other services within their razon (anti) social.

Murders make the news more than rapes or strongarm robberies, and the only violent crimes you usually hear about are murders. The only murders of foreigners I've seen reported that didn't involve gangsterism were people walking in a robbery, or domestic disputes. But then, most murders anywhere are business or personal disputes gone horribly wrong. And, when you think about it, most narco-murders are just contract resolutions in a business where one can't turn to labor arbitrators or courts.

The thing about crime in Mexico is you don't often have "random" violence, or even senseless crimes against strangers. People don't rob Oxxos for a pack of cigarettes and shoot the clerks for the hell of it; "serial killers" are extremely rare in Latin America (and the two best known in Mexico were, surprisingly, women -- and both cases had economic motives that kinda make sense).
http://mexfiles.net

BajaGringo

Oct 30, 2009, 8:08 AM

Post #13 of 13 (206 views)

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Re: [Brian] Most victims of violent crime in Mexico not connected with narcotics

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I understand and appreciate the story and post and would add that statistics can be used in a number of ways to make the point one wants to make. When I look at this issue I prefer to take a common sense approach:

The Baja California border with the USA has been the stage for a high percentage of narco related crime in Mexico. This region also receives millions of gringos coming down each year to visit, vacation and live. Violent crime can and will happen to some of these visitors (and receives a lot of press) yet when you compare the actual number of foreigners who fall victim to violent crime to total numbers of foreigners who cross down into Baja the crime statistic rivals the safest neighborhoods north of the border.

Go figure...

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