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jrpierce

Jun 13, 2011, 10:57 AM

Post #1 of 40 (1504 views)

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Letter From Mexico: Amid the Drug Wars, a Stunning Economic Boom

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This article is a nice summary of several trends many of you will have seen in other articles. While not every piece of this article is supported with documentation, it is certainly consistent with what I know of the data. I was especially interested in the perspective of comparing drug deaths with auto accident deaths in the US, and the ongoing (and historic) tendency of the US media to exaggerate Mexico's problems wildly.

For the best summary of the hard data on recent drug violence that I have seen, click on the link to the data on drug deaths vs. auto accident deaths.

http://newamericamedia.org/...ng-economic-boom.php
http://tinyurl.com/3mgqbck

Jim

(This post was edited by jrpierce on Jun 13, 2011, 11:11 AM)

YucaLandia

Jun 13, 2011, 11:17 AM

Post #2 of 40 (1479 views)

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Re: [jrpierce] Letter From Mexico: Amid the Drug Wars, a Stunning Economic Boom

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JR
What a wonderful article. We at Yucalandia plan to start selling tickets for the Cancun-Merida bullet train next week. Send cash or supply Visa, MasterCard, AMEX, Paypal information to reserve your seats now!

God Bless Optimists,
steve
-
Read-on MacDuff
E-visit at http://yucalandia.wordpress.com/

esperanza

Jun 13, 2011, 11:57 AM

Post #3 of 40 (1458 views)

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Re: [jrpierce] Letter From Mexico: Amid the Drug Wars, a Stunning Economic Boom

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Lovely article...but very, very little hard data. And most articles of this type are designed as puff pieces: i.e., look how well everything is going! You invest here, too!

The lived reality is quite a bit different from what the writer portrays. For example:

Un- and under-employment are up, not down: nearly half of Mexican workers work in the 'informal economy' and earn well below even Mexico's minimum wage.
The author writes, "Carstens is now being mentioned as a leading candidate to take over the International Monetary Fund after Dominique Strauss Kahn's abrupt resignation." Carstens has indeed been nominated, but he apparently is barely in the running.
"The result has been an invigoration of Mexico's middle class." The author does not mention how he substantiates this. My person-on-the-street view is that stores, banks, and other businesses have pushed the acquisition of credit cards; many people are living on this very expensive money. On the other hand, the presumably middle-class man who lived in my apartment until October owes well over 500,000MN on his various credit cards and bank loans. How do I know? The creditors call and knock on the door looking for him at all hours. I've seen the duns and listened to the money-chasers. He's not the only one in this situation!
"Where Americans can't find the money to fill in potholes, Mexico is accepting bids for a new, world-class airport along the 65-mile Cancun-Tulum corridor that is expected to serve 700,000 passengers its first year." Mexicans can't find money to fill in potholes, either. Ask anyone in any city or town. And "accepting bids" does not equal a done deal.
"The strength of Mexico's middle class can also be measured by the maturity of its democratic institutions." The author goes on to say various things about PAN and the PRD and their victories over the PRI. Big business PAN money elected Fox and Calderón, not the middle-class. PAN is all about big business, not about helping the little guy. The PRD headed Mexico City's government before Ebrard (the current head of government in the DF) was elected. Anybody remember who the former head of government was? He was head of government beginning in 2000. BOTH of these men have made huge strides in improving life in Mexico City. (Oops, answer to the question: Andrés Manuel López Obrador.

Those are just a few points that the writer either exaggerates or fails entirely to substantiate. It's a really well-written article and honestly makes me want to believe what it says--but careful, it's full of major holes.

http://www.mexicocooks.typepad.com

dongringo_catemaco

Jun 13, 2011, 12:34 PM

Post #4 of 40 (1445 views)

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Re: [esperanza] Letter From Mexico: Amid the Drug Wars, a Stunning Economic Boom

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Well said.

El Economista, sort of the Wall Street Journal of Mexico, has an excellent English columnist, who, within in a few columns, presents Mexico a lot better than any puff piece.
http://eleconomista.com.mx/focus-on-mexico
Visit Catemaco News

chinagringo

Jun 13, 2011, 2:58 PM

Post #5 of 40 (1412 views)

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Re: [jrpierce] Letter From Mexico: Amid the Drug Wars, a Stunning Economic Boom

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Most all of us with our varied interests in Mexico would certainly enjoy and appreciate positive press or positive reports. Many are quick to criticize the NOB media for their selective and often harsh reports on the situation in Mexico but we owe it to ourselves to also criticize when we run across a "fluff piece" of reporting or a positive report out of the Govt. with an agenda and questionable statements or data.

There are certainly positive aspects out there but either the media is often too lazy to do the research or there are those who have a need to "spin". Nothing positive, reporting wise, can come out of Mexico until someone does the work and has a total commitment to accuracy.
Regards,
Neil
Albuquerque, NM

eyePad

Jun 13, 2011, 8:51 PM

Post #6 of 40 (1321 views)

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Re: [esperanza] Letter From Mexico: Amid the Drug Wars, a Stunning Economic Boom

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Esperanza, I guess you are PRD but won't hold it against you. You point out some things I would agree with.
Maybe not of interest, but in the advanced economies of europe, Spain has ave bullet trains. But Spain also has 20% unemployment and in the youth sector it is more like 40%! (In my opinion why there have been acampadas since before the last election, especially in Madrid but in Barcelona there was violence)

(This post was edited by eyePad on Jun 13, 2011, 8:52 PM)

esperanza

Jun 13, 2011, 9:47 PM

Post #7 of 40 (1307 views)

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Re: [eyePad] Letter From Mexico: Amid the Drug Wars, a Stunning Economic Boom

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Well, eyePad, I guess you have a crystal ball.

What I posted was just the facts: the author of the article wrote that folks couldn't have imagined in 2000 that politics in Mexico would be as they are in 2011. I simply pointed out that the PAN was elected to Los Pinos in 2000 and the PRD was elected to head the government of the DF that same year. Those two parties continue to hold those two offices today. Just saying...the writer was drawing some unsubstantiated conclusions.

It will be interesting to see which of the parties is elected in July 2012.

http://www.mexicocooks.typepad.com

Linda L. Flad

Jun 13, 2011, 10:22 PM

Post #8 of 40 (1305 views)

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Re: [esperanza] Letter From Mexico: Amid the Drug Wars, a Stunning Economic Boom

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Esperanza, You seem to know more than the New American Media, yet you refute the statements with your opinion and innuendo. Where are your facts and/or proof?
I have numbered your points for easy reference.
#1 Where is your "hard data" that un- and under-employment numbers are up? Yes, these are hard times for everyone around the world, but the author is looking at the over-all view of Mexico.
#2 Actually Carstens has good chance of leading the IMF. Most agree he would be the best. Who knows who will get the nod.
#3 You claim the author un-substantiates the "invigoration of Mexico's middle class," while your "person on the street" view is very singular, extremely myopic and very fearful. You tattletale on your Mexico neighbors with credit card bills, not knowing that the problem is much worse in the US. So bad, that in the US, you could add 2, 3 or 6 mortgages to that number owed to the credit cards. Have you heard of Florida?
#4 You have a point when you wrote, "Mexicans can't find money to fill in potholes, either." All city governments around the world are suffering. But the article stated that federally funded infrastructure is growing and, as you know, the highways of Mexico are rapidly improving.
#5 Yes "democratic institutions" suck. But, if you think the 3-party system in Mexico is bad, move back to the USA and try to deal with the two-party system. Then, throw in the Tee-Party! At least in Mexico, they can't be re-elected.
Mexico is not in as bad of shape as you think it is. Since you insist on thinking the worst, at least give us current facts, data or proof. You are welcome to express your opinion, but do not express your opinion as FACT.

RickS

Jun 14, 2011, 7:21 AM

Post #9 of 40 (1254 views)

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Re: [Linda L. Flad] Letter From Mexico: Amid the Drug Wars, a Stunning Economic Boom

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"#2 Actually Carstens has good chance of leading the IMF. Most agree he would be the best. Who knows who will get the nod."

I have no dog in this fight, but two thoughts. One is can you support with fact that "most agree he (Carstens) would be best"? I'm just saying....

The other thought, not to be confused with fact, is that France's Christine Lagarde will be the new leader of the IMF. While some would like to end Europe's grip on the IMF it just ain't gonna happen. Not at this point anyway. When politics is involved at this level, ability often takes a back seat.

Reefhound

Jun 14, 2011, 7:47 AM

Post #10 of 40 (1240 views)

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Re: [Linda L. Flad] Letter From Mexico: Amid the Drug Wars, a Stunning Economic Boom

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"#2 Actually Carstens has good chance of leading the IMF. Most agree he would be the best. Who knows who will get the nod. "

Actually, not even Carstens himself believes this, having described his own chances as "slim".

Carstens, Mexico’s central bank governor, yesterday said chances are “quite high” that Lagarde, France’s finance minister, will win. He said that he put his name forward in an effort to help emerging markets get the post in the future.

“I’m not fooling myself,” Carstens said in Washington after meeting with U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy F. Geithner. “It’s like starting a soccer game with a 5-0 score,” given Lagarde’s early front-runner status, he said.

“We emerging markets might take more than one round to get to the final position, but if we don’t start at some point, we will never get there,” he said. “Our intention is to raise the bar, also to invite emerging markets to be better coordinated in this process.”

http://www.bloomberg.com/...s-fischer-exits.html

esperanza

Jun 14, 2011, 7:52 AM

Post #11 of 40 (1238 views)

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Re: [RickS] Letter From Mexico: Amid the Drug Wars, a Stunning Economic Boom

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On Canal 22 news at 9PM last night, Adriana Pérez (the newscaster) reported that Carstens himself says that he is in the back of the pack for head of the IMF and is highly unlikely to be named to the post.

The person whose debts I mentioned is not my neighbor. He is the former tenant in the apartment where I currently live. He has left here leaving hundreds of thousands of pesos in unpaid bills, which leaves me in the position of answering dunning phone calls (the phone is in the landlady's name, but he gave the number as his own to his creditors), dunning bill collectors at the door, telegrams, URGENT letters from every bank in Mexico, etc. If I'd mentioned his name, I can see where the new poster (Linda) could be upset by the lack of confidentiality. But I didn't.

Here's my take on the difference between the linked article and my post: the article writer's opinions were written as if he were a knowledgeable professional and presented as facts in an article designed to be read by as much of the public as possible. He undoubtedly received pay for his article. I, on the other hand, post here just like the rest of us, with opinions based on my lived experience in Mexico, experience lived over the last 30+ years.

I spend a lot of time talking with ordinary Mexicans, folks on the street, in restaurants, taxi drivers, the guy riding the Metro, etc. I believe that the opinion of the person-on-the-street is important in that it gives me a bird's eye view of what the Mexican population really thinks. I've done these mini-interviews everywhere I've lived in Mexico, and everywhere I've visited: most recently, Mexico City, Morelia, Pátzcuaro, Uruapan, Guadalajara, San Miguel de Allende, and the pueblos in between those places. My friends in Mexico range from the neighbors in my building to the wife of the current governor of Michoacán and from the woman who runs the tiny working-class restaurant around the corner from my house to the owner of one of the most famous restaurants in the República. Included in my friendship circle here are people from every possible walk of life. Every one of my friends has an opinion about Mexico's current condition. The opinions that I offer are based on a common opinion that comes from all of those sources.

I apologize for giving the idea that my opinion was based solely on my personal experience; my opinion is collective and based on the opinions of many Mexican people. I don't have a clue what base the opinions (not the facts) in the linked article have.

http://www.mexicocooks.typepad.com

chinagringo

Jun 14, 2011, 9:33 AM

Post #12 of 40 (1206 views)

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Re: [jrpierce] Letter From Mexico: Amid the Drug Wars, a Stunning Economic Boom

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Since this article struck me as being what I would term a "fluff piece", I took a different approach by wondering if the author had other motives for writing the article. After a fair amount of research on the author, I have formulated an opinion but will refrain from postulating on those opinions. A number of links follow which should give those who may be interested a start. I would encourage looking deeper into some of this person's history on various expat forums to gain the "big picture".
http://www.google.com/...49US349&ie=UTF-8
http://www.google.com/...49US349&ie=UTF-8
http://www.yucatanliving.com/...out-louis-nevaer.htm
http://www.yucatanliving.com/...nevaer/Complaint.pdf
http://www.yucatanliving.com/.../StateCourtOrder.pdf
http://www.yucatanliving.com/...DefaultJudgement.pdf
Regards,
Neil
Albuquerque, NM

richmx2

Jun 14, 2011, 12:04 PM

Post #13 of 40 (1156 views)

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Re: [chinagringo] Letter From Mexico: Amid the Drug Wars, a Stunning Economic Boom

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OH MY! While the article mentioned by the original poster is probably unobjectionable (although we can question its facts and conclusions), let us just say the author has created some genuine controversies based on what seems to be either a personal vendetta against well-known journalists and social service providers in Mexico, and his reputation with some of us is not the best.

(and my bad... I'm on another poster's computer, and initially posted this under their account... I think I've got it straightened out!.

http://mexfiles.net
http://voiceofmexico.com
http://editorialmazatlan.com

arbon

Jun 14, 2011, 12:32 PM

Post #14 of 40 (1141 views)

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Re: [esperanza] Letter From Mexico: Amid the Drug Wars, a Stunning Economic Boom

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IMF shortlists Christine Lagarde and Agustin Carstens

Ms Lagarde is considered by many as the front runner for the post.

She is backed by the European Union and in recent days she has also won the support of Egypt, Indonesia, and the United Arab Emirates.

Mr Carstens has the support of Latin American countries.
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jrpierce

Jun 14, 2011, 1:00 PM

Post #15 of 40 (1133 views)

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Re: [chinagringo] Letter From Mexico: Amid the Drug Wars, a Stunning Economic Boom

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Sometimes posting on a board like Mexconnect is like planting a seed for an unknown plant, then sitting back to see what it grows into. ;)

I viewed this article as a brief, non-scholarly summary of the situation in Mexico, admittedly with an optimistic spin--especially as to some planned development. As China Gringo surmised, I like to see such articles to counter the obsession of most of the US media with the drug wars as the defining event in Mexico.

I see most of the author's main points to be well supported by the facts. To wit:

1. The Mexican economy is enjoying robust growth, and no longer just tagging along with the US:
http://www.businessweek.com/news/2011-05-06/carstens-says-slack-in-mexico-economy-helps-check-inflation.html

2. Middle class resilience: Many articles in the business press mention a growing middle class in Mexico, often as reason for investments in Mexico. See for example: http://www.bloomberg.com/...xpand-in-mexico.html

A more scholarly article speaks about the three ways "middle class" is defined. By some measures Mexico's middle class is growing, by others it is remaining the same: http://www.americasquarterly.org/node/2152

To be sure as many authors point out, the middle class in much of Mexico is fragile, often based on the "informal economy" but given where it has come from, I think Mexico needs to make no excuses.

3. Carstens and IMF position. With the IMF saying there are two final candidates for the head of the IMF, and with everyone saying Lagarde is wired due to the politics--not necessarily because she is best qualified, I think having Mexico's Carstens as the other candidate on the short list should be a source of price for Mexico.

4. Maturity of Mexico's democratic institutions. Opinions may differ, but this article from the NY Times argues the latest elections speak to the strength of Mexico's democracy: http://www.nytimes.com/2010/07/06/world/americas/06mexico.html

5. Putting the narco violence into perspective: The report cited by the author is one of the best analyses of the recent data I've seen:
http://justiceinmexico.files.wordpress.com/...tbi-drugviolence.pdf

Bottom line, while some aspects of the article may be "fluff," I think his general themes are accurate. And while the author doesn't deal with nuances and details, that isn't the purpose of this type of article.

Now we learn the author is apparently not a nice guy. While interesting, Neil, and thus I'm cancelling my luncheon date with him ;), to me this does not impact on the thrust of the article.

Jim

(This post was edited by jrpierce on Jun 14, 2011, 1:03 PM)

arbon

Jun 14, 2011, 1:46 PM

Post #16 of 40 (1121 views)

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Re: [jrpierce] Letter From Mexico: Amid the Drug Wars, a Stunning Economic Boom

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"Maturity of Mexico's democratic institutions."

¿In the 2006 Mexican Federal election Calderón got less than 40% of the total/popular votes, how democratic is that?
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jrpierce

Jun 14, 2011, 2:08 PM

Post #17 of 40 (1109 views)

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Re: [arbon] Letter From Mexico: Amid the Drug Wars, a Stunning Economic Boom

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Arbon, I don't know much about that. It has sounded as though this is similar to the argument about whether Al Gore actually won the election in the USA. Could you point me to a good, unbiased article that explains it all? I'd appreciate it. Thanks,

Jim

arbon

Jun 14, 2011, 3:08 PM

Post #18 of 40 (1093 views)

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Re: [jrpierce] Letter From Mexico: Amid the Drug Wars, a Stunning Economic Boom

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http://en.wikipedia.org/...n_2006_controversies

1.3 Quick count.

PS...Al Gore was contending 50% + -
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

(This post was edited by esperanza on Jun 14, 2011, 4:00 PM)

YucaLandia

Jun 14, 2011, 4:06 PM

Post #19 of 40 (1067 views)

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Re: [arbon] Letter From Mexico: Amid the Drug Wars, a Stunning Economic Boom

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In Reply To

"Maturity of Mexico's democratic institutions."

¿In the 2006 Mexican Federal election Calderón got less than 40% of the total/popular votes, how democratic is that?

Bill Clinton received less than 50% of the US vote in both of his Presidential election victories (43% & 49%). It does not take more than 50% of the vote to win in most "democratic" nations.

It's also worth noting that the author of the web-article in the OP created a number of fictions in his article, like the supposed bullet train, and the hyperbole of how the growth of a single tiny slice of the Yucatecan housing market somehow represents any truth about the broader Mexican economy. Common wisdom here is that the growth he touts, is actually just upper middle class refugees from other parts of Mexico affected by the ongoing Drug Wars. War refugees escaping dreadful conditions in one part of Mexico by moving to the 4'th poorest state in Mexico, hardly qualifies as a measure or barometer of robust economic health.
-
Read-on MacDuff
E-visit at http://yucalandia.wordpress.com/

(This post was edited by YucaLandia on Jun 14, 2011, 4:08 PM)

arbon

Jun 14, 2011, 6:07 PM

Post #20 of 40 (1031 views)

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Re: [YucaLandia] Letter From Mexico: Amid the Drug Wars, a Stunning Economic Boom

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You are talking about what is considered a Minority government in a democratic system.
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mazbook1

Jun 14, 2011, 6:53 PM

Post #21 of 40 (1017 views)

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Re: [arbon] Letter From Mexico: Amid the Drug Wars, a Stunning Economic Boom

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arbon, you are correct when you say "You are talking about what is considered a Minority government in a democratic system," IF you are only speaking of parliamentary style democracies where the prime minister is the head of government. But in many, many democracies, U.S., México and many, many others where the president (head of government) is elected separately from the legislative body that is NOT true at all. Those countries never have a "minority government" as you style it.

(This post was edited by mazbook1 on Jun 14, 2011, 6:57 PM)

chinagringo

Jun 14, 2011, 7:04 PM

Post #22 of 40 (1005 views)

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Re: [arbon] Letter From Mexico: Amid the Drug Wars, a Stunning Economic Boom

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For one who has a history of coming from a parliamentary system, you seem to have a basic lack of understanding of the democratic system of government! Given that the parliamentary system often changes more time than most people change their underwear because of a basic destruction of their coalitions, why question any government that is elected with less than a majority?
Regards,
Neil
Albuquerque, NM

jrpierce

Jun 14, 2011, 7:05 PM

Post #23 of 40 (1005 views)

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Re: [YucaLandia] Letter From Mexico: Amid the Drug Wars, a Stunning Economic Boom

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Arbon, after reading article you cited, I was still confused about your point until your exchange above with Steve. I knew it was a hotly contested election with charges and counter charges about fraud, but the article seemed to say that in the final analysis Calderón did in fact win. But I'm with Steve that if one wins an election by a plurality rather than a majority, I still think if the election is conducted fairly and the country's constitution allows it.

Steve, I didn't take time to research those points, and have no personal knowledge about them. Thanks for clarifying those points. I find the notion that refugees from the wars in other parts of Mexico are fleeing to Mexico interesting and something I hadn't heard previously.

Jim

esperanza

Jun 14, 2011, 9:16 PM

Post #24 of 40 (972 views)

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Re: [jrpierce] Letter From Mexico: Amid the Drug Wars, a Stunning Economic Boom

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Jim, when we were making our decision to move from Morelia to Mexico City, many, many of our Mexican friends reported to us that either they knew people who had moved to the DF for exactly the same reasons we were or they wanted to make the move themselves: to get out of the troubles that continue to be rife in Michoacán. Most of our friends couldn't make the move due to either business or family commitments that kept them--however reluctantly--in Michoacán.

Now that we are living in Mexico City, we have met an even greater number of Mexican people who have friends and relatives who have moved here from all over the country--all of them coming to the DF to get out of the troubles that plague other parts of Mexico, as well as Michoacán.

In case you aren't aware of the situation in Michoacán's Tierra Caliente (including Apatzingán and other, smaller towns), at least 2500 people have been living in shelters because they are afraid to live in their homes--all of this due to cartel violence. Here's a several-weeks-old link; the situation worsened since this news and many more people went into shelters. http://neglectedwar.com/blog/archives/5005.

A similar but likely worse situation has existed for some time in Ciudad Mier, in the state of Tamaulipas. That city has become all but a ghost town due to violence and threats of violence against its former residents. All of the people who have left have become refugees in other parts of Mexico. The link takes you to an admittedly dated article, but the situation in Ciudad Mier has not improved. http://www.themonitor.com/...residents-tamps.html

http://www.mexicocooks.typepad.com

jrpierce

Jun 14, 2011, 10:01 PM

Post #25 of 40 (967 views)

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Re: [esperanza] Letter From Mexico: Amid the Drug Wars, a Stunning Economic Boom

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Esperanza, I just reread my last message on this thread and realized there was a typo. I had intended to say that I was unaware of an influx of refugees to the Yucatan. I am aware of the situation you describe in Ciudad Mier. I had also read about people leaving small towns in the Tierra Caliente and going to shelters, but I thought I also read that was for a short time and then they returned home--could be your information is more up to date.

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