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oringo

Oct 18, 2010, 2:55 PM

Post #1 of 3 (1701 views)

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Is the word 'statistics' profanity?

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Crime is the most controversial subject as well as the least favorable topic as I have observed in every expat forums from Philippine to Mexico. The first and most concern of wannabe expats is the crime of the area since I’ve been lurking these forums looking for my rest place. Now I get the feeling of ’here we go again’ whenever I see another fresh post of crime, a sort of immunized response after high dose vaccine of crime stories galvanized with statistics. Not that I have no fear of violent crime, it is because how one’s perception can be easily distorted, skewed, or manipulated. Look at how many billions of dollars Rev. Moon makes every single year by brainwashing other fellows under the flag of religion and he is not the only one doing that. Quite often I wonder the nature of our own species.

It seems to be that the allergic response of each individuals depends on its own perception in relate to own experience, personality, expectation, etc. together with emotional susceptibility to environment as if my wife and I are extremely opposite for a single identical phenomenon. It is not like gravitational force of the universe. It is more of perception of an elephant by blinds.

I have a quote from this forum (Maxconnect) so I assume the moderator would allow to show because it is from the same forum.
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Re: [BajaGringo] alternate reality

I suppose one can play the statistics game: Imagine you are in a big room ( a concert hall maybe) with 500 other people. What is the liklihood that SOMEBODY in the room has the same birthday as you? That is a very different probability then you randomly picking somebody from the room and that PARTICULAR SOMEBODY has the same birthday as you. Thats the game you play when you say "I, personally, have not been a victim of a violent crime over upty ump years." It doesn't mean that nobody else has'nt.

The other logical error (I'd say tactical error) is the assumtion that the drug gangs operate in a world disconnected from our world. The worlds do indeed overlap.”

　
If you read carefully this premise itself is full of fallacy. It is not a matter of statistical mathematics but a game of riddle. If PARTICULAR SOMEBODY means Joe Blow out 500 people then the number of others who has the same name is irrelevant to the subject. It is one out of 500 multiplied by half. What he is trying to do is to make readers to be confused by talking scientifically just like snake oil merchant quoting organic chemistry formula. The two probability is not same. I can not connect the dot of what he is saying and I don’t think he does also. He is doing the magic not the logic.

The final decision to go or not, wherever the destination is, is result of considering various factors besides the cost of living and crime. Each person will make informed decision based on its own variables. We need as much information as possible as we can get, however we don’t have to be told what to do by others. It would be much more desirable if posters inform the readers instead of making a decision for others.

Then why am I procrastinating? We couldn’t get the majority on vote so far. I, another half, Chihuahua and poodle: total 4 votes. Poodle is on my side and Chihuahua is to the other. Always 50 : 50. I’ve told all the statistics to Chihuahua not to worry about but he doesn’t budge. He thinks he knows area because his ancestors are from Chihuahua.

I feel like statistics is a kind of profanity like four letter word from time to time, especially on TV news. JUST TELL US WHAT HAPPEN NOT WHAT TO DO.

　

Peter

Oct 18, 2010, 3:15 PM

Post #2 of 3 (1693 views)

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Re: [oringo] Is the word 'statistics' profanity?

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If you have 100 people who know each other or are connected by the same information source and ONE of them has had a brush with a personal incident of crime then perhaps 90% or more of the 100 people may hear about it and have some of the details.

If another person comes along and asks from these same people about crime they know about and 90% give that person a report about a crime with varying details of the who, when, why, where, and how, then is that person getting an accurate picture of the crime statistics in a given area? Having 90 out of 100 people telling about an incident that may or may not have happened to them is bound to be somewhat startling after they give their own telling of the incident.

That may be an example of an unclean statistic. If five out of the 100 had an incident and you got similar reports back from 99% of them about multiple incidents you probably would feel you could not get out of that place fast enough.

oringo

Oct 19, 2010, 1:29 PM

Post #3 of 3 (1576 views)

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Re: [Peter] Is the word 'statistics' profanity?

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It is not hard to grasp your statistics and it is statistically correct. But we are not on the same boat. Let me clarify the rest of the story.

The probability of picking SOMEBODY out of 500 is 100% (1). And the chance of his name is the same as yours is half. So it is one by half. But the probability of his name is Joe Blow which is yours also will be one divided by total number of combination of all different names exist on this globe including deceased ones’.

In the beginning the premise of the statistical proposition is incomplete, which is scientifically ludicrous and make the thread ridiculous as well as the forum. Why am I making a big deal out it? I see all the time, when people get into argument they bring all kinds of statistical data to support each side, such as that’s why Mexico is safer than US or vice versa. I wish everyone quit that stuff. It is more like ego clash and stupid.

A few days ago one gringo in another country got mugged and robbed every possession in his residence after he was drugged with Escapomento in a taxi or restaurant, which made him and his wife like zombie and be obedient to the thugs. One of poster’s final comment in his thread was “don’t be too worry, it is lot safer than Mexico”. I’ve been in two countries recently and met a quite a few people, also follow the blogs and forums. His final comment is a typical example of unnecessary misinformation and prejudice which usually results from this stupid statistical thing.

Statistically you have higher probability of getting hit in Mexico but realistically your chance of getting hit will be significantly lower in Mexico than the other. Because those thugs in that country are specially targeting gringos and most people I know or recognized names have been hit (not meaning pick pocket but serious robbery).

I will make my conclusion based on my observation not Joe Blow’s statistical argument and data.
Let’s stop all the riddle of statistics which is the worst lie according to Mark Twain.