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Bennie García

Sep 13, 2013, 7:40 PM

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Mérida real estate

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Has anyone noticed much of an increase in real estate sales/value this year?



fishfrier

Sep 14, 2013, 5:58 AM

Post #2 of 17 (453 views)

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Re: [Bennie García] Mérida real estate

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The market is still pretty slow. House prices never really went down when the bubble burst so there has been little movement of properties. Places that do sell are under $30,000.00 us or over $350,000.00 us.We know of a place in a great location, nice house that the owner would take $90,000.00 but has not moved in 6 months. A few years ago the place would have sold fairly quickly at $125,000.00. Agents will say that the market is starting to move but that is what agents do.


Bennie García

Sep 15, 2013, 9:11 AM

Post #3 of 17 (407 views)

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Re: [fishfrier] Mérida real estate

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Thank you fishfrier, I had come across an article on another website whose author, a prolific blogger from Mérida, was predicting a boom in 2013. But it looks like the market hasn't responded as he claimed it would.


Quote
The 25 million new Baby Boomers eligible for retirement every year will continue to drive a growing Grey Boom from 2013 to 2030. For the sake of argument, let’s say these Thalesian guess-timates are high by a factor of ten. That still adds 5,000 new expats every year, swelling Yucatan’s current (approximately) 10,000 expat population dramatically. In fact, that would add 50% more expats in 2013 alone. .



(This post was edited by Bennie García on Sep 15, 2013, 9:15 AM)


fishfrier

Sep 15, 2013, 12:18 PM

Post #4 of 17 (388 views)

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Re: [Bennie García] Mérida real estate

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Merida is definitely expanding. Lots of housing developments going in on the north side of the city. Lots of families coming in from other parts of Mexico and other Latin American countries. For NOB expats the figure is probably closer to 100 to 500 a year not 5,000 as predicted. I am assuming that the blogger was talking about 25 million Baby Boomers from the U.S. and Canada. Probably not much movement in the real estate sector for NOB expats until the U.S. housing market picks up. We have had friends who were long time Merida residents who moved back to the States because it was cheaper in places like Florida. One couple has three houses down here that have been for sale for well over a year and nothing has happened on any of them.


YucaLandia


Sep 16, 2013, 7:37 AM

Post #5 of 17 (348 views)

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Re: [Bennie García] Mérida real estate

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The Merida real estate market for properties in the $1 million peso range has been good. Beach property values have increased nicely since the article was written. e.g. One set of friends bought their 2'nd row beach home for $450,000 pesos back when the article was written, and similar properties are now selling for $700,000 pesos. The Centro area of Merida where Fishfrier lives is just a small slice of the pie, and it should do well over the coming 5 - 15 years. Merida Centro has not been favored as a desireable place for Meridadanos to buy real estate for the past 15 years, so typical home values in Centro are lagging other parts of the city. Our property on the north side of Merida has increased 3X since the article was written, and we sold off part of it as a result. Our property on the NW side has increased by 30% since the article was written. It all depends on where you look

The Baby Boom generation represents the largest group of American and Canadian citizens, with the highest birth rates seen in the past 75 years.

First, consider: The US 2000 Census counted 79.6 million U.S. residents, still alive, born in the years 1946 to 1964, inclusive, with the birth rate spiking up to high levels in 1948. This year is really important to consider when evaluating who is retiring now, who will be retiring, and WHEN the big wave of retirees will actually start.

Readers with a sharp eye, will also notice that the data peak of birth rates actually span: 1939 - 1974 = a 25 year period. This means that the remaining Americans people born outside of the 1939-1974 window, represent relatively smaller slices of the 315 million US population. Sharp readers will also note that these statistics do not include immigrants or Canadian Boomers - who actually increase the pool of upcoming retirees...

If you include all years of large numbers of the upcoming retirees, then there are roughly 100 million US citizens becoming eligible to retire with Full Benefits, between 2014 and 2030.

Since Bennie does not know Yucatan, he is unaware.
Most snowbirds come to Yucatan in Nov - March, the 2013 beginning of the wave of Boomers starts ... in November 2013.

When you look at overall populations, we have to consider the central characteristics. Not every baby born in 1946 was born in January.... The retirement dates for these Boomers are spread throughout 2013 - not concentrated in the first six months, as Bennie imagines.

Checking the calendar shows:
The snowbird tourist season for people retiring all through 2013 ... has not happened yet.

We will know more by next March, and even more by March of 2015, when we can finally see just how many of the 1947 Boomers come here to visit.

Bennie has simply jumped the gun....

Happy Trails,
steve
-
Read-on MacDuff
E-visit at http://yucalandia.com


YucaLandia


Sep 16, 2013, 7:46 AM

Post #6 of 17 (345 views)

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Re: [fishfrier] Mérida real estate

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For people interested in facts:
Let's consider the factors controlling retirement for the people who will likely come to Mexico. US Social Security rules allow retirement with full benefits (the most common type of retiree) at age 66 - 66.5 for people born before 1958, and retire at ages 66.5 - 67 for people born after 1957. Since the largest number of Boomer births started in 1948, then the truly large wave of retirees will start in 2014. (66 + 1948)

This means that the current retirees already in Mexico, are NOT actually representative of the future retirees. Our own perceptions about expats in Mexico likely do not fit the new waves of retirees from 2014-2030.

Remember that the future waves of retirees are not a monolith or a single group. They are very diverse, and do not fit a single stereotype of the "Average of all Boomer Savings". The stereotype of the "Average of all Boomer Homeowners" does not exist. Sadly, the data show that there will be 2 separate groups of "Average Boomer Retirees", sharing several significant financial characterstics. One group (the top 40%) own their homes and have substantial savings that easily qualify them for Residente Permanente in Mexico. The other group: the bottom 50% have little or no savings, have heavily mortgaged properties, and likely have debt. Two groups = at least 2 sets of stories.

For context, who are the other 40% of eligible retirees? => 40 million upcoming US retirees between 2013 and 2030 with enough assets to easily become Residente Permanentes..

When are they retiring?

If you look at the plot above, and add 67 years for a typical retirement age, we see that 2013 is just the beginning of the wave of retirees, and the values spike up in 2014 and 2015. This means the expected growth of the numbers of visitors to Yucatan have not happened yet, because 2013 is not over yet - and the peak snowbird tourist season here is Nov - March.

A rational analysis says that the beginning of the growth of visitors will start in late 2013.....

We only have data through August 2013. The year is not yet over.
If you read the whole article, and not just cut out a convenient snippet, you know that the article predicted the growth of visiting Baby Boomers to significantly take off in late 2014 - 2015.

The facts say that the Baby Boomers who did not panic and sell when their portfolios had large paper losses, have actually regained 100% of their original value (unless you had GM stock, since GM went out of business).

This means that the very REAL 40% (40 Million Americans) of the big wave of 2014-2029 Americans who can retire comfortably, actually now have significantly more assets than the financial loss-ridden 2009 Census data. If these practical-savers Boomers did not panic sell, then they typically got at least 30% increases, and as much as 117% S&P-based increases since the old 2009 Census data of just $410,000 of savings per upper-level retiree household.

This means that the soon-to-retire Boomers , who personally have more than enough savings & paid-for real estate to actually retire, also likely have even higher than $410,00 in retirement savings per household, right now - since their retirement accounts balances have recovered nicely since the 2009 financial-crisis low of the 2009 Census data quoted above.

40 million upcoming US retirees, with average household savings of $410,000 each, really is a big big number of retirees who will consider visiting Mexico. Many will become snow-birds, and some will even buy homes or vacation properties.

Patience....

The 2013 retirees become eligible through out the year - not just in Bennie's proposed January - July birth dates.

This means the 2013 snowbird season for the typical 2013 US retiree actually starts in next .... November.

Happy Trails,
steve
-
Read-on MacDuff
E-visit at http://yucalandia.com

(This post was edited by YucaLandia on Sep 16, 2013, 7:49 AM)


Bennie García

Sep 16, 2013, 10:17 AM

Post #7 of 17 (322 views)

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Re: [YucaLandia] Mérida real estate

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You mention me several times throughout your post and each time attribute something to me that you have no way of knowing or is completely false. What is your problem, fella?

BTW it has come to my attention that you use user names other than yucalandia on this forum. Which you also use to denigrate posters that disagree with posts you make under the yucalandia user name. Do you deny this?


(This post was edited by Bennie García on Sep 16, 2013, 11:05 AM)


chicois8

Sep 16, 2013, 11:24 AM

Post #8 of 17 (312 views)

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Re: [Bennie García] Mérida real estate

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could you give some examples Bennie?


cbviajero

Sep 16, 2013, 1:11 PM

Post #9 of 17 (294 views)

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Re: [Bennie García] Mérida real estate

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In Reply To
You mention me several times throughout your post and each time attribute something to me that you have no way of knowing or is completely false. What is your problem, fella?

BTW it has come to my attention that you use user names other than yucalandia on this forum. Which you also use to denigrate posters that disagree with posts you make under the yucalandia user name. Do you deny this?

I thought this thread was about real estate in Merida..


mcm

Sep 16, 2013, 1:46 PM

Post #10 of 17 (290 views)

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Re: [fishfrier] Mérida real estate

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I live just outside of the ring-road around Mérida, in a formerly rural area that is rapidly developing. It's a high value area, and what I observe is that most of the newcomers seem to be from other parts of Mexico. This includes people buying in developments, and small quintas (country homes).
When we arrived in 1996, the per square meter cost of undeveloped land in this area was well under 100 pesos, and not much more for developed land. The per square meter cost of undeveloped land in our area now ranges from 600 to 1000 pesos. But that contrast with the per square meter cost of several thousand pesos (for undeveloped land) in some of the high-value subdivisions WITHIN the ringroad of Mérida.

As Yucalandia points out, the historic center of Mérida attracts foreign expats more than Mexicans, but, as Fishfrier also noted, the focus of ''growth'' in Mérida (for higher end properties) is the north half of the city, and its outskirts. There are LOTS of new developments (including an unprecedented group of 30-story condo buildings currently nearing completion). These are pretty clearly being marketed to Mexicans (especially from DF and Monterrey, where such vertical housing is much more common. Perhaps they will attract some well-heeled snowbirds or permanent expats as well.

Since there are no reliable real estate data bases for this information, though, this is all pretty speculative. That doesn't mean it can't be interesting, but nobody is going to ''win'' this ''argument'', so ......

As an aside to the Mérida real estate discussion, I've long thought that there are inflated estimates of PERMANENT US/Canadian expats in the Mérida area, based on newspaper accounts of numbers given by the local INM, and on the 2010 census figures. It does SEEM as though there is growing interest in coastal properties, though, but that's just an impression.
It'll be interesting to see if there is an increase in expats to Mexico in general, or Mérida in particular. Demographics (eg, retiring baby-boomers) suggest that this would be the case, as Yucalandia points out in detail. But I'm less convinced that the demographic boom will result in the relatively massive migration south of the border, particularly to an area such as Yucatán, which has a year-round climate that many have a hard time adjusting to.

PS -- golly, this post is ALMOST as long as one of Yucalandia's! But with fewer paragraph breaks....

Sincerely,
the one-and-only ''mcm'' (on Mexconnect, at least)


RickS


Sep 16, 2013, 7:56 PM

Post #11 of 17 (260 views)

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Re: [chicois8] Mérida real estate

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The thread needs to stay on the topic of real estate in Mérida...... only.

Mod


YucaLandia


Sep 18, 2013, 9:01 AM

Post #12 of 17 (207 views)

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Re: [Bennie García] Mérida real estate

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Last week I was invited to an hour long consulting meeting with a real estate developer who has built developments in Progreso and north Merida. This developer sees good growth potential outside of Periferico and along the beach. Just like our property outside of Periferico (between Cholul and Merida) has increased 3X in 3 years, there are also 7 big developments planned just outside Merida in just the N-NE region. Developments also continue to grow in the areas just NW of Merida. The developer who invited us to consult, has similarly bought property outside of Merida on the north side near Cholul, so development currently is expanding both inside and on the outskirts of (outside of) Merida - in addition to mcm's and fishfrier's described areas.

Unlike Bennie who does not know Yucatan nor the real estate market here, this developer plans a 50 home development - 2 story, 3 bedroom homes with 10m space between homes - for Telchac, and consulted with us on how to best market these homes to the upcoming snowbirds from the USA and Canada who they anticipate will begin arriving in 2014.

It is easy for stangers and outsiders to make claims that are not supported by facts, like people who imagine that other people do what the author himself knows - projecting their experience onto others. This is like imagining and then claiming that when husband and wife both have Mexconnect accounts, the frequent poster must somehow be using with spouses account to ghost-write posts. Fortunately, on Mexconnet and in life, husbands and wives are allowed to sometimes agree, and other time disagree, and are allowed to express their independent views.

Recent factual observations by real estate professionals report: The rates for building the biggest developments, like office towers, have slowed in the Merida and Yucatan beach market. The gringo-gulch Merida Centro market for remodeled Spanish Colonial $2 million to $4 million peso homes has slowed. Still, real estate professionals and other people who back up their claims with their own investment monies are still spending on building more modestly priced developments here, including plans for US/Canadian snow-bird communities. The market for under $1.5 million peso homes remains good. For context, the Merido Centro Spanish Colonial market is only a tiny part of Merida area and the Yucatan beach real estate markets.

Are the developers and real estate professionals wrong?

Only time will tell.
Happy Trails,
steve
-
Read-on MacDuff
E-visit at http://yucalandia.com

(This post was edited by YucaLandia on Sep 18, 2013, 9:10 AM)


Bennie García

Sep 18, 2013, 10:27 AM

Post #13 of 17 (188 views)

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Re: [YucaLandia] Mérida real estate

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Instead of continually posting anecdotes that cannot be verified, maybe yucalandia could post some solid facts for a change. We are now in the 8th month of 2013, the first 3 of which are considered the snowbird season (all over Mexico, not just Yucatan). Was there an increase in private home sales in the Mérida area in the first 8 months of this year? It is a yes or no question that doesn't require 15 paragraphs of anecdotal yapping.


YucaLandia


Sep 18, 2013, 10:59 AM

Post #14 of 17 (183 views)

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Re: [Bennie García] Mérida real estate

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There is no MLS or official tracking of actual sales, so the reports and advice of professional real estate investors and how they are spending their money are the best sources of information we have.

I have done my best to answer the false claims of a bitter outsider who makes empty accusations based only on personal animosity. We personally own our home, plus 3 investment properties. This year we sold part of the 11 hectare plot to take advantage of the actual growth in Merida real estate prices. We would not willingly sell property at a loss. We are currently building out a small 4 apartment building based on what we see and what good professional experts confirm.

Our talk is backed by our $$ and our actions.

The average snowbird who retires in 2013 would not have come here as Bennie imagines in January or February. As I wrote above: The peak NOB snowbird tourist season here is from November - February - which has not occurred yet for 80% of 2013's retirees.

The story simply has not been written yet - and will not be known until 2014-2015.

In the meantime, petty personal attempts to twist current facts are no longer worth addressing.
Happy Trails,
steve
-
Read-on MacDuff
E-visit at http://yucalandia.com

(This post was edited by YucaLandia on Sep 18, 2013, 11:01 AM)


Bennie García

Sep 18, 2013, 11:06 AM

Post #15 of 17 (176 views)

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Re: [YucaLandia] Mérida real estate

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In other words, you can't answer a simple yes or no question.

As far as personal animosity, it has been your habit to fire off nasty PMs to other posters on this board that have had the audacity to disagree with you. You're the king of animosity.

BTW, why does a Google search for "Dr. Steven M. Fry" return nothing but posts by yourself? No mention by any academic institution, no mention of any achievements other than those claimed by you, yourself? Very odd.


(This post was edited by Bennie García on Sep 18, 2013, 11:11 AM)


mcm

Sep 18, 2013, 12:11 PM

Post #16 of 17 (162 views)

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Re: [Bennie García] Mérida real estate

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Another factor to consider when evaluating "Mérida'' real estate is the issue of over-development, leading to vacant properties, and absence or underdevelopment of infrastructure (particularly roads, etc.). These are problems that are currently a real headache in the Mérida area.

For example, a HUGE development (Ciudad Caucel) was started about ten years ago west of the city. The goal was about 50,000 homes. I'm not sure how many have been finished (there were multiple developers, multiple developments involved), but many are empty, there are too few schools for the children of residents, the access to Mérida is a bottleneck (currently being retrofitted by the state government, with federal funds, in a partial solve). Likewise, another new development north of Mérida, Las Americas, with around 5,000 homes has similar problems of underoccupation, deterioration of properties etc.

Both of these areas were marketed to ''middle class'' (e.g., working middle class, especially as starter homes), not as high end homes. However, some more upscale developments have also suffered from low occupancy and inadequate support structure (especially roads).

The point is that this oversupply of mid-level housing SHOULD be a bit of a damper on prices, though, of course, not speculators with raw land (especially land in locations good for commercial/business development).


Re: areas outside Mérida, like the proposed Telchac ''development'' mentioned by Yucalandia (Telchac Puerto is a beach town, about 50km from Mérida, and Telchac Pueblo is an inland town about 20km south of the beach town -- the former is about 45 minutes to an hour drive from Mérida). There have been several attempts to lure upscale residents to these areas, but all have been unsuccessful (these include a very ambitious project, including a proposed golf course between the coast and the town of Dzemul (just west of Telchac), and another project even closer to Mérida, near the town of Chicxulub Pueblo). Recent upgrades and major widening of ''highways'' between the coast and outskirts of Mérida have led to a number of high-mid end developments between the coast and neighboring towns (e.g., Conkal-Chicxulub highway), but it's unclear how successful these will be.

There is a very large complex, Yucatan Country Club, built about 15km north of Mérida near the Dzibichaltun archaeological site. This is a VERY upscale planned development, complete with golf course and several different housing options (high rise condos, individual homes, townhouses), and seems to be doing well. The development has been gradual, and it is well-financed, by people who know the area (and market) very well. The vast majority of buyers are Mexicans, not foreigners.

There is a LOT of money coming into the area, as investors from other parts of Mexico, as well as Yucatecan investors, attempt to exploit (I don't necessarily mean that in a pejorative sense) Yucatán's reputation as a ''safe'' location, relative to other parts of Mexico. As I said in a previous post, I am much more skeptical than Yucalandia about Yucatán state as a site of a major influx of foreign (especially Canadian and US) residents, but am fairly sure that the influx of Mexicans to the peninsula is likely to continue for a while.


RickS


Sep 18, 2013, 12:17 PM

Post #17 of 17 (163 views)

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Re: [Bennie García] Mérida real estate

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This thread is locked as it has become acrimonious. I'll start a new one for Merida Real Estate but the moment it becomes a match between posters, it too will become locked.

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