Forums > Areas > Jalisco's Lake Chapala Region

viajita

May 23, 2007, 5:59 PM

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real estate Lakeside

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Brad Grieve's article on the real estate market in this month's Lake Chapala Review is interesting. One point he made was that the average sales price between 2003 and 2006 increased 69%. He forsees price stability over the next few years. I wonder how many of us could afford to buy here now? More and more folks now are opting to finance their buys, just like where we came from. Another surprise I received last week was the rate increase to get municipal water. Out here in my area of La Canacinta we had no water lines and have been buying water from an owner who has a well. Finally the water lines have come to our area and now the rate for connection is by square meter. It would cost me $7,000 US to connect. Well, I don't have $7,000 to connect and unless I win the lottery I will never have the $7,000 to connect. The sad thing is, there are 4 other families that are my neighbors who share the well. All of these families are poor and will never be able to afford municipal water. Is this a sign of progress? Maybe Bubba is right. Chiapas is looking mighty good right now.

(This post was edited by viajita on May 23, 2007, 6:00 PM)

johanson

May 23, 2007, 7:43 PM

Post #2 of 15 (3675 views)

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Re: [viajita] real estate Lakeside

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That is high for water. I was told that one had to pay about 27,000 pesos in my neighborhood (Ajijic) for a house of the size I own and about the same to hook up to the sewer lines. But considering what real estate costs are on the west coast from San Diego to Vancouver, BC, the cost of real estate in Ajijic is still very very low. If you are from Seattle, for example where the prices are lower than in many places in California and the lower mainland in BC, the average sales price of the average house is between $450,000 and $500,000 US. Go to the right suburb and the average cost could be $750,000.

The RE prices are still going up in this part of the world.

Bloviator

May 24, 2007, 6:06 AM

Post #3 of 15 (3646 views)

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Re: [viajita] real estate Lakeside

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Having just finished buying and re-modeling our current home, it has occurred to me that home ownership - at any cost - is not a good idea for me living here.

Please let me know if my thinking is incorrect.

I agree with Brad, the housing market has had an appreciable rise in recent years. Coupled with the down market in many parts of the US, it seems likely that prices will not continue to rise. In fact, I suspect that with the large number of houses on the market, it is likely to go down a bit in the next couple of years unless there is a turnaround in the market NoB. In the long term, prices will have to go up. They always do. For the next couple of years, it is unlikely.

With health and other concerns, it is possible that we might have to go NoB for a long period - perhaps permanently - in the next few years. If that happens, I don't want to be concerned with trying to sell a house in a down market, far from where I am living, while dealing with whatever serious concern that might send me north.

Further, rentals here are quite cheap in relation to home prices. One can live in a very nice home for $10,000 pesos or so per month. When one considers the value of the money invested in a home, the probability is that renting is quite a bit cheaper than ownership. Suppose you have a $300K US home. It would be easy to get 5% return on your money. That is $15,000 per year that could go toward the rent. A comparable rental for $1K per month would result in an extra $3K annually to spend on whatever one might want.

Of course, with rentals the probability is that one would have to move often, though my Spanish teacher has lived in the same home for six years - stashing away a lot of money by not owning a home.

I have two major problems in dealing with this subject. One is psychological. My wife is adamant that she has to own a house and she loves the one we are in. She can't understand the idea that it costs us money to own the house even though we are making no payments. The other is relating to the housing market. I have no interest in taking a loss on our house, and am interested in selling only at a price near what I have in the house. That is a possibility, but the housing market makes it difficult.

bournemouth

May 24, 2007, 7:21 AM

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Re: [dlyman6500] real estate Lakeside

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There was a small column in El Informador, the Jalisco newspaper, yesterday discussing the number of retirees that the US will have over the next 10 years and speculating that millions (I can't remember the exact number, but it was larger than I thought possible) would seek out a warmer, cheaper location and that Mexico would be the beneficiary. It went on to say that this would provide huge business for developers and real estate people. So - maybe prices will not decrease that much.

The article was not specifically referring to the Lakeside area, but Mexico in general.

Georgia

May 24, 2007, 7:31 AM

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Re: [dlyman6500] real estate Lakeside

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Dlyman, your assessment about the time value of money is a good one. In your circumstances it makes sense. However, it should be added that, under ordinary circumstances, you also have to factor in the increased equity you have in your home, the comfort factor of making your home into what you want a home to be (more important to some than to others, I grant), and the uncertainties of rent increases.

For those who think they might have to return NoB permanently, however, rental is, I think, the most secure option if your home is your major investment.

Rolly

May 24, 2007, 7:48 AM

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Re: [viajita] real estate Lakeside

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Those water and sewer hookup charges blow my mind. Here in Lerdo we paid $3,000 pesos for a total of four hookups at our Las Casas project.

Rolly Pirate

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On Facebook as Rolly Brook

Bloviator

May 24, 2007, 8:33 AM

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Re: [bournemouth] real estate Lakeside

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I'm fairly sure that is true. Also there was a recent article that told of a dam on the river above the lake that will help clean up the lake and increase it's potential as a resort area.

This is a two edged sword. I believe that long term, the housing market will only go up. That is good and bad. This area has a definite limit as to the ability of the infrastructure to assimulate growth. There is a point, possibly not too far away, when I might want to leave just to get away from the gridlock, water problems, more terrible than now telephone service, and other infrastructure breakdowns.

At that time the house might be saleable, but it will be at a time when it will be competing with many brand new McCastles favored by newbys from NoB. My house is a beautiful Mexican home and is twenty years old. It might not fare too well in a housing market competing with brand new California modern McCastles, with real wiring in the right places, pipes that aren't old, and other amenities that newcomers from CA and FLA take for granted as the norm.

esperanza

May 24, 2007, 9:20 AM

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Re: [bournemouth] real estate Lakeside

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In Reply To

Approximately 76 million baby boomers will retire in the next ten years. Many will indeed seek out warmer climes. Mexico will be one logical choice, since it's close to the USA and still a bit less expensive for retirement.

http://www.mexicocooks.typepad.com

N2Futur

May 24, 2007, 12:34 PM

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Re: [viajita] real estate Lakeside

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$7000 US is totally outrageous! We just bought a lot in Melaque. The previous owner paid $3500 pesos last year to hook up to City water and sewer. Annual water bill runs around $600 pesos.

Elke
___________________________
"When choosing between two evils, I always like to pick the one I never tried before." - Mae West

bournemouth

May 24, 2007, 1:22 PM

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Re: [viajita] real estate Lakeside

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Viajita - who is providing the water hookup - is it Simapa?

viajita

May 24, 2007, 1:38 PM

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Re: [bournemouth] real estate Lakeside

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Yes, I talked to the folks in Ajijic on Guadalupe Victoria behind Pharmacia Guadalajara. I had to take my deed in to show them the sq. meters of my property.

jaybear

May 24, 2007, 2:27 PM

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Re: [viajita] real estate Lakeside

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Viajiata, what size is your property? It sounds like the connection price is based on your lot size. Maybe it would be quite a bit less for your Mexican neighbors if they have smaller properties. Of course, that does not address your own situation. But, could you perhaps divide your property, one part for you, one part for the animals, and just connect with respect to the part you use for your house? Like people who get separate electricity bills for their casitas and swimming pools?

viajita

May 24, 2007, 3:10 PM

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Re: [jaybear] real estate Lakeside

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I have 2447 sq. mts. I have a small house, a small yard, but I have 7 horse stalls and 3 corrals on the property. The horses certainly take up most of the space. I practice water conservation and try to be careful with the water since it is so precious here. Please tell me more about dividing the property. I didn't know you could do that. I'm sure there's a cost there that has to be considered. My Mexican neighbors have large properties also. Two have at least the size of mine and one maybe a little smaller. This is all family property that has been owned by the same families for ages. Right now we are all sharing a well that is on a piece of property that is planted annually in corn so therefore the well. It's been there forever too. That piece of property is probably 7,000 sq. mts.

bournemouth

May 24, 2007, 3:16 PM

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Re: [viajita] real estate Lakeside

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Can you all not go on using the well? Or can Simapa stop you doing that?

Re the division of land, you need to talk to the Notario who did the work when you bought the land to see what the cost might be.

viajita

May 24, 2007, 3:45 PM

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Re: [bournemouth] real estate Lakeside

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Yes, we can all use the well for a time. However, the pump is very old and the well needs to be cleaned, etc. etc. With the water line coming right up to my gate, I thought here was the opportunity until I discovered the cost. I will talk to the notario. Thanks for the advice.