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Maxmilliano

Jan 14, 2011, 1:30 PM

Post #1 of 17 (8686 views)

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Tepic Most Dangerous List

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Sadly Tepic has seen a horrible rash of violent crime in 2010 with over 500 murders and now in the first 14 days of 2011 there have been 20 or more execution style killings. Fifteen of the most dangerous cities in the world are in Mexico and Tepic made number 13.

http://www.noticiasdenayarit.com/...tepic&Itemid=458

arbon

Jan 14, 2011, 3:03 PM

Post #2 of 17 (8663 views)

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Re: [Maxmilliano] Tepic Most Dangerous List

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Twelve of the fifty most dangerous cities in the world are in Mexico.

http://www.allvoices.com/...in-mexico?print=true
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Maxmilliano

Jan 14, 2011, 3:09 PM

Post #3 of 17 (8657 views)

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Re: [arbon] Tepic Most Dangerous List

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Pray tell how is Tepic number 13 if there are only 12?

raferguson

Jan 14, 2011, 6:15 PM

Post #4 of 17 (8607 views)

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Re: [Maxmilliano] Tepic, Mazatlan and Cuernavaca on the Most Dangerous List

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I went back to the source, the Citizen's council of security and Justice, and found the following:

Entre las 10 ciudades con mayor incidencia homicida, 4 se sitúan en México: la ya citada Juárez (229), Chihuahua (113), Mazatlán (89) y .Culiacán (88).

In the 20 cities with the highest homicide rates, 4 are in Mexico, Juarez, Chihuahaa, Mazatlan, and Culiacan. I was surprised to see Mazatlan on the list, as I had not heard much about Mazatlan.

Asimismo, la cuarta parte 13 ciudades, que representan la cuarta parte de las 50 urbes más violentas del mundo, se ubican en la República Mexicana. A las mencionadas deben agregarse: Tepic, Torreón (zona conurbada con Gómez Palacio y Lerdo), Tijuana, Acapulco, Reynosa, Nuevo Laredo, Cuernavaca (zona metropolitana) y Matamoros. Ningún otro país tiene tantas ciudades en el ranking de las 50 más violentas.

13 Mexican cities made the list of the 50 most violent cities in the world, so about one quarter of the most dangerous cities are in Mexico. Tepic, Torreon (including Lerdo), Tijuana, Acapulco, Reynosa, Nuevo Laredo, Cuernavaca, and Matamores. No other country has so many cities on the list of the 50 most violent cities.

The council also gave examples of manipulation of the statistics, so the real rates may be higher than those reported by the government.

Richard

http://www.fergusonsculpture.com

tashby

Jan 14, 2011, 8:53 PM

Post #5 of 17 (8574 views)

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Re: [raferguson] Tepic, Mazatlan and Cuernavaca on the Most Dangerous List

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A link to the original source would be nice. I'm questioning how any group of statisticians on this planet are able to gather reliable data on every city in the world.

Sounds like quite an undertaking.

raferguson

Jan 15, 2011, 8:45 AM

Post #6 of 17 (8505 views)

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Re: [tashby] Tepic, Mazatlan and Cuernavaca on the Most Dangerous List

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http://www.seguridadjusticiaypaz.org.mx

Homicide statistics are generally considered the most reliable crime statistics, because homicides are almost always reported, and the definition of homicide is fairly uniform from jurisdiction to jurisdiction. Not to say that the comparisons are perfect, but probably pretty good.

They did not claim to look at every city in the world, just those over 300,000 people, still a lot of cities. The dangerous cities are generally well known. They probably don't need to research Canadian cities, for example.

To me, the most interesting comparison was Juarez vs Medellin Columbia or Bagdad. During the worst period, Medellin had a higher homicide rater than Juarez does now. Bagdad only had one year with a higher homicide rate than Juarez, 2006. So Juarez is now on a par with the worst cities at their worst periods.

Richard

http://www.fergusonsculpture.com

johang

Jan 16, 2011, 7:20 AM

Post #7 of 17 (8391 views)

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Re: [raferguson] Tepic, Mazatlan and Cuernavaca on the Most Dangerous List

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I cannot find the original source for the data these articles are using. Is it perhaps a UN report? I have searched and there are lots of articles but I have yet to see one that quotes the original data source. Maybe it is new Mexico data combined with the 2008 UN data to make it into 50 cities. Has anyone seen it?

Johan....If we all do a little we can do a lot. Visit our little corner of paradise at the Jaltemba Jalapeño.

(This post was edited by johang on Jan 16, 2011, 7:25 AM)

Don Moore

Jan 17, 2011, 8:09 AM

Post #8 of 17 (8279 views)

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Re: [raferguson] Tepic, Mazatlan and Cuernavaca on the Most Dangerous List

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I don't know about others, but i am infinitely less concerned about the overall murder rate in a particular place than i am my own chance of being the victim. i live in memphis, tennessee, which has one of the highest murder rates in the u.s., some years right at the top. I have also lived in boulder, colorado, which had two or three murders in the decade that i lived there. i feel no less physically safe going about my business and pleasure in memphis than i did in boulder. in fact, the only burglary i was ever a victim of took place in boulder.

is it assumed in these posts that the cities with the highest murder rates are dangerous for the posters or for others in mexico? this is a question, not a challenge to the accuracy or relevance of anyone's statements.
Don Moore

raferguson

Jan 17, 2011, 6:46 PM

Post #9 of 17 (8201 views)

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Re: [Don Moore] Tepic, Mazatlan and Cuernavaca on the Most Dangerous List

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I would make the general claim that places with high homicide rates are more dangerous than places with low homicide rates. Of course, your lifestyle, your neighborhood, your age, your ethnic or racial background, your friends, your family, your politics, your business, all affect your personal chances of being killed or a victim of crime. As far as I know, there is no way to compute your personal chances of being a victim of homicide, although for some of the factors listed above, there is statistical evidence that people meeting certain criteria have higher or lower homicide rates than the population at large.

Some of these Mexican cities have such high homicide rates that I have to believe that life is cheap there, that there is a general breakdown in the social fabric, causing a general increase in crime. In some cases, we hear about people fleeing the city due to fear.

There is a totally different statistical way to look at crime risk, which is to look at victimization surveys. They survey a large number of people and ask if they or a family member have been a victim of crime in the last year. They also ask if people feel safe in their own neighborhood. If someone were really concerned about crime, I would suggest that they look both at the homicide rates and the victimization surveys. I don't know how closely the homicide rate tracks the victimization rate. In some cases, such as Mexico city, the drug war has not had a huge effect, and they have not had headless bodies or major shootouts in the streets. However, historically, Mexico city has had very high crime victimization rates, the highest in the country.

I don't pay a lot of attention to claims by anyone who says, "I live here and I feel perfectly safe". What they are really saying is that they have not personally been a victim of crime. I am a little more impressed by somebody who says that they know many locals, and none of them have been a victim of crime. However, if someone does not speak the local language well, how would they really know what was happening in their neighborhood? Their neighbors could have been robbed, or be afraid to leave the house at night, and they might not hear about it.

Richard

http://www.fergusonsculpture.com

Maxmilliano

Jan 18, 2011, 10:21 AM

Post #10 of 17 (8121 views)

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Re: [Don Moore] Tepic, Mazatlan and Cuernavaca on the Most Dangerous List

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Statistics and murder rates aside I would say Tepic and adjacent Xalisco for example because I have been following the news there are dangerous places for me and others to be. If you went there chances are nothing bad would happen to you but if you knew what was going on there you would be foolish to feel safe and secure.

There have been countless gun battles on the main streets and plazas with innocent people being injured or killed. There have been many armed robberies where the bad guys will stop a car, shoot the driver and steal the car. There have been various false road blocks where heavily armed and masked men will pull over cars and take the ones they want. There have been snipers firing on cars on the federal highway between Tepic and San Blas with several fatalities. Some young attractive student age women have been strangled and murdered. Grotesquely mutilated bodies are regularly found in various parts of the city and surrounding areas.

I used to go there regularly and really like the place, I remember many of my Mexican friends telling me that there was very little crime there and that they felt safe being on the streets and out at night. That has all changed now unfortunately. Even more depressing is that this very grave problem is completely outside the control of the government, military and police, they are completely ineffective.

JRinPV

Jan 18, 2011, 11:53 AM

Post #11 of 17 (8101 views)

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Re: [Maxmilliano] Tepic, Mazatlan and Cuernavaca on the Most Dangerous List

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Usual rubbish from a fear monger.

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lamur

Jan 18, 2011, 11:57 AM

Post #12 of 17 (8100 views)

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Re: [Don Moore] Tepic, Mazatlan and Cuernavaca on the Most Dangerous List

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Memphis is number 10....I was surprised by the cities who have higher numbers.
http://www.faqs.org/...urder-Rate-US-Cities

From January 2010 to the end of November 2010, Major Violent Crime was down 24.1% including a drop in murder by 42.6% and a drop in aggravated assault by 13.2% across the City of Memphis, when compared to the same time period in 2006.
Major Property Crime was down 28.2% including a drop in burglary by 23.5% and a drop in motor vehicle theft by 42.6% across the City of Memphis, when compared to the same time period in 2006

Maxmilliano

Jan 18, 2011, 3:33 PM

Post #13 of 17 (8049 views)

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Re: [JRinPV] Tepic, Mazatlan and Cuernavaca on the Most Dangerous List

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As you have said before "Ignorance is Bliss".

arbon

Jan 18, 2011, 3:42 PM

Post #14 of 17 (8047 views)

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Re: [Maxmilliano] Tepic, Mazatlan and Cuernavaca on the Most Dangerous List

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I can remember when Puerto Vallarta was a fun place, now it has become the safest "Reported" city in the World.
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JRinPV

Jan 18, 2011, 4:03 PM

Post #15 of 17 (8035 views)

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Re: [Maxmilliano] Tepic, Mazatlan and Cuernavaca on the Most Dangerous List

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In Reply To

As you have said before "Ignorance is Bliss".

Yes, still very true.

Don Moore

Jan 18, 2011, 7:29 PM

Post #16 of 17 (7998 views)

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Re: [JRinPV] Tepic, Mazatlan and Cuernavaca on the Most Dangerous List

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thanks to all for comments. i was really just trying to get more of a personal reaction instead of just the statistics, not to say that the statistics are not valid or important.
Don Moore

jerezano

Jan 20, 2011, 7:34 AM

Post #17 of 17 (7876 views)

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Re: [Don Moore] Tepic, Mazatlan and Cuernavaca on the Most Dangerous List

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Hello Don and all,

I know several Americans who live in Tepic. True there has been violence and true also that Tepic may be listed as one of the most violent cities in Mexico. Nevertheless, Tepic is a nice place to live with many advantages to retired people and senior citizens. Even Xalisco, a suburb which is in control of the black opium trade is not a bad place to live either. I have lived there 3 months during the winter on two different occasions (3 and 4 years ago). Many of the small towns around Tepic are very peaceful, although Xalisco just might be better to stay away from. Because of the opium trade there are many mansions in that town.

Since you are asking for personal opinions and experience, I must say that if I were not so happy living in my Magic Village of Jerez, I would move to Tepic, regardless of what I am reading about the violence there.

If you wish, I will ask one or two friends in Tepic if they would like me to give your email (NOT the mexconnect one) to them. This is not to mine you for your e mail, no I will not share unless you tell me to, but just so you can communicate with people living there at this time some of whom are not on mexconnect.
As ever, jerezano

(This post was edited by jerezano on Jan 20, 2011, 7:37 AM)