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zoeq1000

Jun 2, 2005, 7:33 AM

Post #1 of 20 (1731 views)

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near term predictions for the peso to dollar exchange rate

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I'm trying to get a handle on the direction of the exchange rate for the next few months. Any thoughts on this?
Dave

MG Rabon

Jun 2, 2005, 7:45 AM

Post #2 of 20 (1718 views)

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Re: [zoeq1000] near term predictions for the peso to dollar exchange rate

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Good luck! If you figure it out please let us all know.

- edited by MG to keep thread on topic, Sorry guys!

Compórtate bien, y si no puedes, invítame!
MG Rabon

(This post was edited by MG Rabon on Jun 2, 2005, 8:19 AM)

Bear

Jun 2, 2005, 8:08 AM

Post #3 of 20 (1711 views)

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Re: [zoeq1000] near term predictions for the peso to dollar exchange rate

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Slightly less pesos to the dollar in the next several months. Wheres Tom?

mrchuck

Jun 2, 2005, 8:42 AM

Post #4 of 20 (1690 views)

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Re: [frank fundaro] near term predictions for the peso to dollar exchange rate

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I have permanently lived in Mexico since 1-1987. I am now a citizen, and damn proud of it.
I was here in Mexico in 12-24-94 when Carlos Salinas de Gortari was the outgoing President of Mexico, and the new incoming PRI President was Zendillo. The Peso at that date took an "enormous" correction!!!
That is a muted understatement.
Before12-94, the peso was traded as high as 4000 to 1 dollar. The Peso Notes had 3 zeros behind the first figure.
All prices foods and gasoline, actually everything in fact went topsy turvy.
All salaries to Mexicans were cut at least in half, and had zero purchasing power for any imported product.
The times were terribly tough for the average Mexican, whomever that may encompass.

In February 1995, I purchased a Mexican used farm tractor and the peso conversion rate was then 6 pesos to 1 US dollar.
From then on to today, the peso has slowly gone up to a high of 12 to one, a year ago, and now is traded at 10.7 to 1 at the banks in San Jose del Cabo.
This is about what you will presently get at any ATM in the Republic of Mexico.

Only the currency gamblers will have any idea where it will be going. And I believe they guess a lot.

Me, All I do is go to the atm at Scotia Inverlat or Santander Serfin, which by the way are owned by the Bank of America in the USA, and get my pesos quickly and plenty of them, and with NO SERVICE CHARGE, since I keep a Bank of America account in the USA, and of course use this card in the atm's.

I don't really need to know where the peso is going since I will be here through it all, wherever it goes, whatever it does.
Saludos,,,,,mc

gpk

Jun 2, 2005, 10:06 AM

Post #5 of 20 (1671 views)

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Re: [zoeq1000] near term predictions for the peso to dollar exchange rate

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I just got 10.84 pesos per dollar at my local atm. It has been hovering around 11 for a year or so. I have read that the Mexican government is somehow supporting the peso at an elevated level--I don't understand the economics of this type of thing--and that the rate should be more like 13. In any case--no one knows for sure, but in the last 5 years the general trend has been upward with long periods of stalling.

gpk

Jun 2, 2005, 10:44 AM

Post #6 of 20 (1659 views)

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We've been looking for you!

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Finally--a naturalized Mexicn citizen!! Could you possible give the forum a brief description of the citizenship process? Several of us are interested in applying and an insider's view would be very helpful. Please help! Gracias.

Marta R

Jun 2, 2005, 10:59 AM

Post #7 of 20 (1646 views)

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Re: [mrchuck] near term predictions for the peso to dollar exchange rate

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Is there any bank in Mexico that isn't owned by a U.S. bank?

Marta

gpk

Jun 2, 2005, 11:57 AM

Post #8 of 20 (1628 views)

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Re: [chrisnmarta] near term predictions for the peso to dollar exchange rate

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Bancomer is owned by a Spanish bank.

gatonegro333

Jun 2, 2005, 1:23 PM

Post #9 of 20 (1604 views)

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Re: [mrchuck] near term predictions for the peso to dollar exchange rate

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does anyone know if washington mutual owns banks in mexico and, if so, do they offer no service charge atm use with one of their american atm cards?

mrchuck

Jun 2, 2005, 2:20 PM

Post #10 of 20 (1572 views)

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Re: [gatonegro333] near term predictions for the peso to dollar exchange rate

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Washington Mutual does not have any affiliation or ownership in any Mexican bank.
Therefore, they will charge you for atm withdrawls done in Mexico.
If you were a long time account holder with Home Savings, when Washinton Mutual took them over, then you are exempt from this atm charge, so says Washington Mutual. They also say they're very few of these type of accounts that are still exempt of the atm charge.
This is verbatium from Washington Mutual in san Diego, when I "interrogated" them on this exact subject in March 2005.
Saludos,,,,,mc

Bubba

Jun 2, 2005, 2:41 PM

Post #11 of 20 (1567 views)

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Re: [gatonegro333] near term predictions for the peso to dollar exchange rate

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People posting and reading posts around here are incredibly vulnerable to assertions made from ignorance or speculation. Listen to this:

Bancomer is actually known as Grupo Financiero BBVA Bancomer SA de CV and is a a subsidiary of Banco Bilbao Viscaya Argentaria. This is a Spanish owned corporation and, for all I know, BofA has an equity in it but as far as I know it ain't "owned" by BofA. Banco Santander Serfin is owned by another Spanish corporation known as Grupo Santander. Maybe that's BofA as well. Maybe that's the CIA.

These are banks from Spain but Bank of America may own them at least in part. Who knows? Tell me that's not a scary prospect. Maybe you are owned by Bof A as well.

Tell me why Americans think they own the planet? Or, on the other hand, maybe they do own the planet.

Does that mean that all of us Americans will get free ATM transfers in the future? I hope not because we will pay for that in ways we do not comprehend at present.

I keep trying to open the eyes to posters hereabouts to this. If you get free ATM transfers, then you are paying for those transactions through the back door and the banks love the fact that you don't get it. There is no free lunch. You are letting them use your money for free or at a below market cost to them and they are laughingly giving you free (up to a point) ATM transactions. Believe me - this is a fact. Banks do not give away anything ever. We are getting into your shorts and stealing your family jewels and you are thanking us for it. I was a banker for 35 years and I know of what I speak.

Open an interest free or below market interest paying account with me and I'll gladly give you a toaster. Hell, I'll give you two toasters and throw in one of those WAMU umbrellas and weather predictors.

Ingress is free, egress $5.

(This post was edited by Bubba on Jun 2, 2005, 2:56 PM)

MG Rabon

Jun 2, 2005, 2:49 PM

Post #12 of 20 (1561 views)

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Re: [chrisnmarta] near term predictions for the peso to dollar exchange rate

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In Reply To

Is there any bank in Mexico that isn't owned by a U.S. bank?

HSBC is a British bank with branches in eighty some-odd countries, including the USA, Mexico, and the Caymen Islands.

Compórtate bien, y si no puedes, invítame!
MG Rabon

(This post was edited by MG Rabon on Jun 2, 2005, 2:51 PM)

Marta R

Jun 2, 2005, 3:58 PM

Post #13 of 20 (1536 views)

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Re: [MG Rabon] near term predictions for the peso to dollar exchange rate

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All points well taken, Bubba.

Since HSBC is British owned, perhaps the question should be asked a different way: Are they any banks in Mexico that are owned only within Mexico?

Marta

Bubba

Jun 2, 2005, 4:47 PM

Post #14 of 20 (1521 views)

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Re: [chrisnmarta] near term predictions for the peso to dollar exchange rate

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Good question, Marta, and here is another question for you. If banks in England, Spain and the United States are so anxious to own all of the major banks with national reach in a poor country such as Mexico what is their motivation? Who are their allies? I thought Mexico was a poor country and loan to deposit ratios can't even begin to approach those of the banks in the countries seeking to take over the Mexican banking system.

Hint:

Look for exhorbitant fee income and possibly leverage but that is only part of it.

(This post was edited by Bubba on Jun 2, 2005, 4:49 PM)

Marta R

Jun 2, 2005, 5:01 PM

Post #15 of 20 (1514 views)

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Re: [Bubba] near term predictions for the peso to dollar exchange rate

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Just at a guess, maybe lower regulatory oversight?

Marta

Phil in SLP

Jun 2, 2005, 6:52 PM

Post #16 of 20 (1475 views)

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Re: [Bubba] near term predictions for the peso to dollar exchange rate

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Bubba is right. However, a main reason for foreign banks wishing to own Mexican banks is that they charge for services that are not charged in other countries. I pay Banamex a fee to access my account online! I have been told that Mexican banks are among the world's most prosperous because they charge more for their services. Phil

BrentB

Jun 2, 2005, 7:08 PM

Post #17 of 20 (1468 views)

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Re: [mrchuck] near term predictions for the peso to dollar exchange rate

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They cut off those zeros and called them New Pesos. Salinas Gotari left with the treasury. Yes those were tough times, many people lost, not only jobs, but houses, cars, and businesses.
Inflation and currency really has been stable lately.
I am surprised that things weren't worse recently in Guatemala and other Central American countries when they had similar hoodwinks.

Brent

cristalhombre

Jun 2, 2005, 7:38 PM

Post #18 of 20 (1450 views)

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Re: [mrchuck] near term predictions for the peso to dollar exchange rate

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I am a WAMU (Washington Mutual) customer and have been since WAMU aquired Pacific First Federal (Seattle) back in the 80's. I DO NOT pay atm service fees in the USA, Mexico, Europe or Asia (I have used the card in all locations) Not sure why, but they are always credited on my account. I do have a platinum account ($5,000 balance), maybe that is it.......not sure. They also provide free AM/EX Travelers checks which work well in Europe, not so hot in MX and Asia.

I can also say that the exchange rate, of the dollar/peso, has been very stable for the past 3 years that I have been traveling several times a year to MX.

NO comparison.........when you look at the movement of the euro, yen, pound, and the Canuck-buck, during the same period.....

With the recent strength of the dollar (relative to the power-house euro) in the past 3 business days, it will be interesting to see the relationship of the peso/dollar. I think there is a parallel effect with the two currencies, that are somehow linked....not sure.... Is that a NAFTA issue?? Anyone know more about this?????? I would be curious.

Brad

"NOT ALL WHO WANDER ARE LOST...."

Brian

Jun 3, 2005, 7:27 AM

Post #19 of 20 (1374 views)

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Re: [cristalhombre] near term predictions for the peso to dollar exchange rate

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Yesterday I used an ATM at the local HSBC branch to add time to my cellphone as well as withdraw cash from a Wells Fargo account in the US. They charged 5USD for each transaction! I am now considering opening an HSBC account in the States . They advertise free online checking and billpay but I can't find any mention of fees for withdrawing funds from affiliates in Mexico or other foreign countries. If ATM fees are also free, it would seem to be an ideal solution for expats. I had been using the rather clumsy relationship of California Commerce Bank/Banamex in the past but the Quicken 2005 software no longer supports CCB's file format for downloading transactions. Anyway, does anyone here have experience using USBC as an "all in one solution"?

saludos

Brian

S & C

Jun 7, 2005, 2:01 PM

Post #20 of 20 (1157 views)

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Re: [Brian] near term predictions for the peso to dollar exchange rate

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HSBC actually began in the Far East in 1865 as the HongKong and Singapore Banking Corp. (Hence HSBC)
It is now headquartered in London and is one of the world's largest banking corporations with offices in over 80 countries.

Their first major foray into the US was in 1980 when they purchased a controlling share of Marine Midland bank, headquartered in Buffalo NY with a few thousand branches throughout New York state.

HSBC bought the mexican bank Bital a few years ago which suited me fine since my place is near Tulum Q Roo and the only bank in Tulum is HSBC.

I live in northern Pa and bank with HSBC just across the border in upstate NY.
We use their ATM card (MasterMoney card), at the Tulum bank and get good exchange rates w/o an ATM charge.

Haven't checked into opening an account inTulum yet but that may come.
As for internet banking, free bill paying etc. it works fine and is very easy.
They recently started a new money transfer service that allows you to transfer money from another account in another bank to your HSBC account for $3 rather than the $25 or $30 wire transfer fee normally charged.

HSBC is a good bank in the states that I recommend using if you can.
Stan