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hunteradvisor


Jan 15, 2017, 2:41 AM

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Just wondering?

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How many of you living in Mexico are considering getting citizenship out of a concern how the Mexican government may respond to Trump's plans when elected?
Do you worry they're maybe retaliation and those of us here on temporary or even permanent visas may have to go? Do you feel it maybe more difficult to obtain those visas after NAFTA is trashed , funds can no longer be sent from the US to Mexico and the wall goes up?
Isabel
www.RanchoSolyMar.com



Sunnyvmx


Jan 15, 2017, 3:16 AM

Post #2 of 34 (9908 views)

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Re: [hunteradvisor] Just wondering?

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Money talks and as long as we're spending our dollars here, we are boosting their economy. Treating us badly as in expats or tourists would be cutting off your nose to spite your face. Mexico's fight may be with the U.S., but we have left the States for one reason or another and brought our money with us. I don't foresee them viewing us as a problem.


stevebrtx

Jan 15, 2017, 6:06 AM

Post #3 of 34 (9897 views)

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Re: [hunteradvisor] Just wondering?

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I have no idea where some of these fantasies come from? This is just another election, no more or less than the ones in 2008 and 2012. Trying to conjure up disasters is not mentally healthy, all will be just fine and in fact, probably better than fine. Sit back, enjoy the weather and the MX you live in, it's not going away.


Gringal

Jan 15, 2017, 8:50 AM

Post #4 of 34 (9878 views)

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Re: [stevebrtx] Just wondering?

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Not to get political on this, but this isn't "just another election". This is an entire regime change. Based on the stated promises, it's going to affect relations between the U.S. and Mexico strongly. I hope the Congress kills some of those promises, but who knows?

What if a worst case (IMO) scenario takes place; the wall gets built by the U.S. and remittences sent by workers to their families get clobbered as promised, if Mexico doesn't reimburse the wall costs? Retaliation will happen, but I doubt very much that it will affect U.S. citizens who have emigrated to Mexico, especially those who are permanente. What would be the point?
What will happen is sad to comtemplate.


hunteradvisor


Jan 15, 2017, 11:18 AM

Post #5 of 34 (9862 views)

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Re: [Gringal] Just wondering?

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A recent article in The Economist predicts a very bad economy for Mexico as a result of the election. We have already witnessed devaluation of the peso which is reflected in the increase in gas prices which Mexico can no longer afford to subsidize. There were 6 deaths due to the gas protest.
So no, I don't see this as anything like previous elections.
Isabel
www.RanchoSolyMar.com


stevebrtx

Jan 15, 2017, 11:25 AM

Post #6 of 34 (9861 views)

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Re: [hunteradvisor] Just wondering?

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Well people, I can tell you is that delusion is it's own reward. What has transpired is what it is, now your choice is to deal with it or worry yourself into an unhealthy mental state. My Mother always said "the things you worry most about never happen".


Gringal

Jan 15, 2017, 12:13 PM

Post #7 of 34 (9856 views)

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Re: [stevebrtx] Just wondering?

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I don't think mom's platitudes cover the current situation.
As they say about paranoia, sometimes someone really is out to get you.

What is true is that none of us has any control over the future. We can make "what if" plans, however. If going for citizenship will make anyone feel more secure, then by all means he/she should do so. I tried that a year or so ago, but was tripped up by my hearing disability when given an oral language test by a bureaucrat who was not in the mood to be helpful. Mexico does not offer the alternative of a written test, nor does it waive the requirement in this area for older gringos. Permanente will have to do. If the government decides to retaliate by tossing out us non-citizens, we'll have to swallow our losses and leave. It's always helpful in the worry department to have a Plan B. I do, but it doesn't include returning to CA. Plenty of other places on the planet where our money goes farther.

If the policies and promises coming down from on high turn into actions, it will definitely affect Mexico's economy in a negative way. Since we live here, we will be affected. IMO, in the interim: I will keep my savings and investments in the U.S.;have the smallest peso account I need for cash. If I were a super worrywart homeowner, I'd sell my property and rent until the smoke clears. I haven't reached that stage as yet, and I enjoy my casa.


(This post was edited by Gringal on Jan 15, 2017, 1:21 PM)


playaboy

Jan 16, 2017, 3:29 AM

Post #8 of 34 (9821 views)

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Re: [hunteradvisor] Just wondering?

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There is going to be retaliation from the Mexican government if the USA carries out Trumps threats. Pena Nieto can not sit idly by.

Some of the things being discussed is an audit of all Mexican corporations that hold property in the restricted zone to see if they are complying with ISR regulations. They are looking to see if those properties are real businesses that are paying taxes. Another thing getting discussed is placing new restrictions and much larger fees for fideicomisos used to acquire coastal properties.

I have been hearing about a new tax on real estate sold to foreigners. The tax would be at the same rate as the tariffs imposed. Let's say if Trumps threat of a 35% tax on Mexican built cars becomes real, than there will be a 35% tax on property sold to Americans. This tax will be modeled after the Vancouver BC real estate tax.

Sunny, retired expat dollars don't mean anything to the Mexican federal government or 99% of Mexico. It would only affect a couple of small, local, municipo's where expats are the only real economy for the area. If the 20,000 expats living in my area left for the Mother country, the economic impact would be minimal.

Mexico will still offer a great tourist experience for travelers. That segment of the economy will continue to grow, especially with the strong USD.

It is clear that Nafta is going back to the negotiating table. Trump (the deal maker) is going to change the dynamics of this Trade Agreement. BETTER WATCH OUT CANADA.


(This post was edited by playaboy on Jan 16, 2017, 3:31 AM)


Gringal

Jan 16, 2017, 6:56 AM

Post #9 of 34 (9804 views)

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Re: [playaboy] Just wondering?

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Please share your source of the imformation in your post. No offense meant, but my skeptical mind isn't quite satisfied with "I've heard". Did you mean that a 35% tax would be levied on property already owned, or did you mean new sales?

I agree that retaliation for U.S. punitive policies would come as no surprise.


YucaLandia


Jan 16, 2017, 3:06 PM

Post #10 of 34 (9774 views)

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Re: [Gringal] Just wondering?

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In another twist that says this is not 'just another election'... Our Mexican family and friends found that immediately after the Nov.8 Trump as President-Elect result:

US Consulates in Mexico put visa applications on informal holds... stopping processing for about 2 weeks.

The chill is real.

State Dept employees talk of early retirement.

Trump and Obama's & other's rhetoric ... have taken us to international relations, ejection of diplomatic personnel, and posturing not seen since the Cold War.

??
-
Read-on MacDuff
E-visit at http://yucalandia.com

(This post was edited by YucaLandia on Jan 16, 2017, 3:06 PM)


YucaLandia


Jan 16, 2017, 3:25 PM

Post #11 of 34 (9768 views)

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Re: [YucaLandia] Just wondering?

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If we move away from the diplomatic fronts... and shift to trade:

The threats of significant US tariffs ... targeting Mexico & Mexicans...

are real.


Note the realities that around the world, the Chinese, the French, the Swiss, The Nederlanders, the Turks .... MEXICO ... and the Brits ... et al

are all turning inward ... focusing heavily on nationalistic themes & policies.

... Those who doubt these realities can check out the international trading trends since 2010...

The 7 year consistent downturns in international trading ... and nationalistic turnings inwards are confirmed by record low intl. shipping tonnages ... and record low international shipping rates that are killing the big shipping companies... driving some of the world's biggest shippers into bankruptcy.

As these nationalistic political changes become cemented~embedded in law & business ... they become fundamental structural changes.

"The total value of American imports and exports fell by more than $200 billion (in 2015). Through the first nine months of 2016, trade fell by an additional $470 billion."

....
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/10/31/upshot/a-little-noticed-fact-about-trade-its-no-longer-rising.html?smprod=nytcore-ipad&smid=nytcore-ipad-share


http://www.cnbc.com/2016/08/12/maersk-q2-net-profit-lags-forecast-keeps-full-year-profit-outlook.html

“Carriers haven't collectively made a profit since 2010,” says Mike Wackett as intl. shipping rates have fallen as much as 80% since Obama's 2008 election.

https://www.flexport.com/blog/shanghai-containerized-freight-index-scfi-history/


https://www.flexport.com/blog/why-are-ocean-freight-rates-so-low/

as the voices of international trade experts are in unison... that nationalism is driving record low growths ...

as they predict~expect that the nationalistic waves rolling across the world will continue to suppress typical growth to just 2%-3% for at least a decade.

??

So, Mexico's problems ... and her solutions ... are simultaneously in her own hands ... + the hands of others ...

as "Buy Mexican" likely becomes the new hue & cry across this land...

... Can anyone say: Smoot-Hawley ?

*grin~groan*
steve
-
Read-on MacDuff
E-visit at http://yucalandia.com


YucaLandia


Jan 16, 2017, 3:52 PM

Post #12 of 34 (9764 views)

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Re: [Sunnyvmx] Just wondering?

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In Reply To
Money talks and as long as we're spending our dollars here, we are boosting their economy. Treating us badly as in expats or tourists would be cutting off your nose to spite your face. Mexico's fight may be with the U.S., but we have left the States for one reason or another and brought our money with us. I don't foresee them viewing us as a problem.


These views make a lot of practical sense, and mirror Adam Smith's 'invisible hand' ...

but ... Note how reality so often turns logic & rational analyses on their heads.

How will America ... and Americans react to the very real Mexican reaction last night in Playa Del Carmen ?


http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/cancun-nightclub-shooting-four-dead-mexico-gun-attack-tourist-hotel-zone-a7529051.html

===================

This confluence of events may be worse for Mexico than the 2009 Swine Flu Pandemic (wrongly blamed on Mexico) + Hillary's calling Mexico a 'Failed State' ....

which clobbered NOB tourist visits to Mexico by at least 40% back in 2009 - 2010 ...

??
steve
-
Read-on MacDuff
E-visit at http://yucalandia.com

(This post was edited by RickS on Jan 18, 2017, 7:48 PM)


fishfrier

Jan 16, 2017, 6:56 PM

Post #13 of 34 (9750 views)

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Re: [YucaLandia] Just wondering?

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Off your meds? You tried this same tactic on Facebook. Claiming that Americans and Canadians were brutally killed in PDC just because they were foreigners. For one who is all about getting the facts right, this one is so far off that it is surprising even for you. What makes your statement even stranger is you know that it is not true.


(This post was edited by fishfrier on Jan 16, 2017, 7:36 PM)


playaboy

Jan 17, 2017, 4:37 AM

Post #14 of 34 (9715 views)

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Re: [Gringal] Just wondering?

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Please share your source of the imformation in your post. No offense meant, but my skeptical mind isn't quite satisfied with "I've heard". Did you mean that a 35% tax would be levied on property already owned, or did you mean new sales?

I agree that retaliation for U.S. punitive policies would come as no surprise.


I play a little poker. Among the players are 2 men that are middle managers in the real estate division for Banamex in Cancun. They told us that these are some of the items discussed in recent meetings and in memos at the bank. That is as good a source as other stuff posted online.

I assumed that he said the tax would be on the sales price of the property. Impose a 35% tax on Mexican built cars imported into the USA, then Mexico imposes a new 35% tax on the sale of real property to Americans. I immediately thought of the Vancouver BC tax on foreigners.


Gringal

Jan 17, 2017, 6:04 AM

Post #15 of 34 (9704 views)

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Re: [playaboy] Just wondering?

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That's as good a source of rumor as the next one. (chuckle). Obviously, such a tax imposed on cars, real estate or anything else would need to come down from on high by legislation in either country. In the U.S., a politician...even a president....can talk a big tax or a big wall, but getting 'er done is another story.

I'm also noticing that the promises of the U.S. president-elect are at odds with his own party's plans; i.e. health insurance. It will be interesting to see how this all plays out. Since I'm no longer involved in the fray...pass the popcorn.


Gatos

Jan 18, 2017, 3:09 PM

Post #16 of 34 (9611 views)

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Re: [Gringal] Just wondering?

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It has been my plan since coming to Mexico - a little over four years ago - to apply for Mexican citizenship. I think big changes are coming to the world regardless of who is president of the US. The US is going to have to cram down changes to its populace - which are going to be unpopular - and there is going to need to be a scapegoat - so it might as well be Mexico (or Canada).

During my professional career (in the US) I had this crazy habit of working for a company - leaving to work for another company - and then at some point going back to the first company after time. I guess you could say I didn't burn any bridges, or I was a good worker etc - but you know - near the end of my career - while they took me back - they took me back at the same salary as I was making when I last left. That really wasn't about me - none of my friends had received raises in that time either. This policy of replacing cheap foreign labor with more expensive US labor is not going to create a surplus of money within companies to be disbursed to the little worker-bees. In fact - the folks in the ivory towers are not going to be turning in the same numbers as before and they are going to see their compensation cut as well.

If you increase the cost of something by 35% by adding a tax - people are going to buy less (probably). So now you are going to corral consumers into buying something which doesn't have that tax applied - but is going to have the added cost of unionized labor in the US to produce it. Who really wins there ? The unions ? Or is Trump going to come up with his own version of 'cash for clunkers' ? Who really pays for that sort of program ? The money has to come from somewhere.

Trump's personality does not permit him to take criticism. I think within his first six months in office he will be in it up to his eye-balls. These tiny little PR skirmishes are not going to turn things around.

IMHO.


TedZar

Jan 18, 2017, 5:04 PM

Post #17 of 34 (9591 views)

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Re: [Gatos] Just wondering?

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Hmmm... not worried about it. It will sort itself out or it won't.

I've lived in six different counties, continuously outside the USA since 1989. Things get bad, they get better.

Keep your head down when things get worse, enjoy it when it gets better.

Platitudes can smooth the way.


roberb7


Jan 19, 2017, 10:45 AM

Post #18 of 34 (9549 views)

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Re: [playaboy] Just wondering?

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First, the situation in MX is in no way similar to the situation in Vancouver, where the price of real estate has been driven up to a ridiculous level by foreign investors.
Second, the idea of a tax on real estate sales to foreigners is an exaggeration of our own importance. What is the retaliatory value? Such a tax would have no effect whatsoever on decision makers in the US.
What I want to see (and what is a lot more likely) is, Mexico responds to a tariff on automobiles by imposing a tariff on all corn products. It's a win all around: Mexican small farmers become viable again, and Drumpf has to explain to agribusiness interests in Iowa and elsewhere why scrapping NAFTA was good for business.


Gatos

Jan 19, 2017, 11:16 AM

Post #19 of 34 (9546 views)

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Re: [roberb7] Just wondering?

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I also think that Mexico has the upper hand on water rights over the US - like from the Colorado River and Lake Meade (where Mexico's reserves are stored). That is why they were trying so hard to get the current treaty renewed while Obama was still in office. But I do not know all the details.


YucaLandia


Jan 24, 2017, 11:59 AM

Post #20 of 34 (9401 views)

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Re: [fishfrier] Just wondering?

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These facts have been documented publicly, but in Spanish.

People who are not regularly reading Punto Medio, Por Esto, Excelsior, etc ... instead are left consuming the thin watery (false) soups issued in government bulletins, seriously incomplete & distorted police reports, and through the Big Media who owes their existence to the Mex. Gob.

Gotta learn to read Spanish ... well...

Gotta learn to speak ... & understand ... Spanish ... to break out of the isolated bubbles of Gringo-Gulches ... and get outside of Gringo-Landia,

:)
-
Read-on MacDuff
E-visit at http://yucalandia.com


stevebrtx

Jan 24, 2017, 2:29 PM

Post #21 of 34 (9381 views)

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1999 all over again

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I'm remembering back to the Y2K panic some people dreamed up, the world was ending, banks crashing and on and on and guess what happened? - nada. All this hysterical hand wringing before much of anything has happened is silly. Sure, some things will change. I moved down in 2007, look at how much as changed since then, but life goes on and working yourselves into TDS isn't worth the time or effort and it's certainly not productive.


Gringal

Jan 27, 2017, 2:49 AM

Post #22 of 34 (9292 views)

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Re: [YucaLandia] Just wondering?

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It's all very well to suggest that everyone learn to read and speak Spanish, but some simply can't due to age. Severe hearing loss really gets in the way as well. It is far more important to respect the culture, behave politely and smile back when you're smiled at. (Smile).


rvgringo

Jan 27, 2017, 8:56 AM

Post #23 of 34 (9270 views)

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Re: [Gringal] Just wondering?

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I usually agree with Gringal, but here is a topic where I can only agree partially: Yes, age may bring on dementia and preven learning a new language, or much of anything else. Beyond that, there is some evidence that learning a new language does have some benefits in maintaining mental acuity and delaying, or preventing Alzheimers or dementia. As I approach my 80th birthday, I still study Spanish occasionally, read Spanish news every day, and take advantage of every opportunity to speak it with the bilingual folks here in AZ. I also review French and Turkish, which are fading fast, but which I still find interesting, as are a couple of others that tempt me. I am fluent in nothing, sometimes mix languages by mistake & seem to take longer to switch, and only wish that I had more energy to do more. I know that my memory is getting slower as I age, but that little foreign language box in my head seems to be still fun to dip into on occasion.
Hoe, hoe, te vaca hoe a!


Gringal

Jan 27, 2017, 12:51 PM

Post #24 of 34 (9255 views)

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Re: [rvgringo] Just wondering?

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RV: I hope you're not saying that difficulty in learning a language indicates the onset of dementia? (smile)

It's a well documented fact that language skills are best acquired very young. I am still fairly fluent in a language I learned in high school, but the best I have been able to do is read Spanish with decent conprehension. A hearing impairment makes conversations very difficult because of the accents. Since I live in one of the much maligned "Gringo ghettos", most of my Mexican neighbors prefer practicing their English on me. Sometimes, we resort to Spanglish. Since we treat each other with respect, life goes along comfortably, and IMO...that's the important thing. I have plenty of other challenges to keep me out of trouble!


rvgringo

Jan 27, 2017, 1:18 PM

Post #25 of 34 (9252 views)

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Re: [Gringal] Just wondering?

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“The important thing“, is as you have identified it, for sure, and I agree that learning a language is best done from the ages of 0 to 5 and that they will automatically improve from there. However, I learned Quebecois farmer‘s French at those young ages; mostly how to swear at draft horses, cows and old vehicles that were just as stubborn, then having to study proper French in high school. I had no Spanish until moving to Mexico & found lessons there kind of boring. It seemed easier to read & listen. I do agree that hearing impairment is a bit of a problem, as I also suffer in that regard & did not have hearing aids in Mexico. Here, I find them only useful for TV; little else. I suppose that the main reason I stay interested in language, history and Mexico-ralated websites, is that I have little else to do these days. I can no longer drive, breath or see well & these “golden years“ are beginning to tarnish. Stay well.....
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