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Aaron+

Feb 5, 2016, 9:27 AM

Post #1 of 2 (6794 views)

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Scotia Bank economist see 2016 peso range between 16 and 23 to the USD

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In a press conference yesterday, Scotia Bank chief financial economist Mario Correa reportedly sees the peso most likely fluctuating in the range of 16:1 to 23:1 to the USD. http://www.cnnexpansion.com/...sos-al-cierre-de-ano though he views the peso as undervalued. He expects 2016 to close with the peso around 17.90:1USD. For 2017, their estimates see the peso in the low 17's relative to the USD: Not that anyone really knows what any currency's strength will be some months of years ahead. There are just too many unknowable variables.


However, the current Foreign Exchange Outlook issued by the Bank is relatively more positive in its assessment of the peso, and is worth the read http://www.gbm.scotiabank.com/...h/bns_econ/fxout.pdf

From the report on "emerging market" nations regarding Mexico: " We are of the view that the MXN might remain subject to external driven pressures in the near term, yet there are positive factors that will continue to support a relatively positive MXN performance relative to peer emerging-market currencies."

I take issue with the Bank's statement, in part, that a favorable aspect favoring the Mexican economy are the "ongoing structural reforms, which have reduced the government’s dependence on oil-related fiscal revenue and contributed to inflation containment." Translated, that means that the Mexican government has slashed social spending and investment given the reduction in petroleum revenues. And the firing of tens of thousands of PEMEX employees and contractors no doubt is a factor in reducing inflation?

(This post was edited by Aaron+ on Feb 5, 2016, 9:28 AM)



DavidHF

Feb 6, 2016, 3:52 PM

Post #2 of 2 (6720 views)

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Re: [Aaron+] Scotia Bank economist see 2016 peso range between 16 and 23 to the USD

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Pemex still has 10s of thousands of excess employees. It's the most inefficient oil company in the world!
 
 
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