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Jerry@Ajijic

Nov 30, 1919, 12:00 AM

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peso?

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Does anyone have any answers on why the peso is up to 10.28 vrs USD? Also I would appreciate and good predictions about the future peso value (I have to decide if I want to sign up to pay next years rent in USD or pesos. Thanks
Jerry



Uncle Donnie Greenspan

Nov 30, 1919, 12:00 AM

Post #2 of 41 (4099 views)

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For an in-depth analysis

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of the current situation look at the Today's Headlines section on the opening page of Mexconnect. For a historical perspective look at the section about Mexican unions in Distant Neighbors.<p>If I had an option on which currency to use I'd gamble on pesos. Or dollars. Who knows? Certainly the experts will offer both options as the correct choice.<p>I suppose this was a lot of help, wasn't it?<p><p><p><p><p><p><p>: Does anyone have any answers on why the peso is up to 10.28 vrs USD? Also I would appreciate and good predictions about the future peso value (I have to decide if I want to sign up to pay next years rent in USD or pesos. Thanks
: Jerry<p>


Ed Kammin

Nov 30, 1919, 12:00 AM

Post #3 of 41 (4093 views)

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peso?

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: Does anyone have any answers on why the peso is up to 10.28 vrs USD? Also I would appreciate and good predictions about the future peso value (I have to decide if I want to sign up to pay next years rent in USD or pesos. Thanks
: Jerry<p>While watching the news channel (CTV Toronto) this morning, I saw a story flash quickly by about the Peso dropping due to some uncertainly related to the oil industry. I'm trying to find out more, or at least see the story again.<p>
If I knew where the Peso will be next year, I'd be rich.


Jim Bentein

Nov 30, 1919, 12:00 AM

Post #4 of 41 (4096 views)

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peso?

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Uncle Donnie is right. If I could definitely tell you what will happen to the peso next year, I'd be a fool not to make a bundle by shorting it. But here are the reasons I think it's headed further down:<p>1. The Mexican economy is in far worse shape than the Fox government is indicating. Mexico is reliant on the U.S. for something like 88% of its exports and we all can see where the U.S. economy is going.<p>2. I believe the U.S. is headed for a douple dip recession, if not worse. Some bearish economists are suggesting the U.S. may be headed for a Japanese-type malaise, where the economy enters a deflationary, no growth cycle for years. That can't be good for Mexico.<p>3. Canada, the other major trading partner of the U.S. has actually faired reasonably well through this downturn, but by letting its currency decline relative to the U.S. dollar. That hurts Canadians overseas (met a Canuck lately who hasn't complained about their low currency?) but props up the domestic economy. By contrast, largely under pressure from international lenders (although the Fox government won't admit that) the Mexican government has artificially propped up the peso. That only works for so long.<p>4. Latin America's problems will spread to Mexico. Argentina is bankrupt, Venezuela is close and Brazil may be headed there. Yes, Mexico is different, because so much of its trade is with the U.S., but it can't escape that damage completely.<p>5. Mexico is overly reliant on petroleum revenues, with little to fall back on. Only about 12 per cent of the federal and state governments revenues come from personal taxes. Pemex generates as much as 35-40% of the federal government's dollars. That well will start to run dry, particularly after the Iraq situation is dealt with (however that occurs). Oil and gas prices will start to fall next year, post-Iraq. That can't be good for Mexico.<p>6. An important source of income for many Mexicans, dollars earned fro working in the U.S., will start to dry up. As the U.S. economy further deteriorates (and I'm on the side of the bears here) the illegals will lose their jobs, replaced by unemployeed Americans who wouldn't even look at those jobs before. Tourism, another source of dollars for the Mexican economy, will suffer in a prolonged recession.<p>If I were a betting man I'd say we're looking at 14-1 pesos to the dollar by this time next year. However, I've been surprised it has taken this long for the world to discover the emperor has clay feet. If you can convince anyone to take a long position on pesos, I'd say "slam-bam, thank you Mam".<p>Luego


Wondering

Nov 30, 1919, 12:00 AM

Post #5 of 41 (4094 views)

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Canadian Behavior in Mexico

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Why do many Canadians constantly seem to harp about their money? Brits, for example, are on average a lot poorer than Canadians but you don't hear them constantly complaining. <p>It's almost as if they are in a poor-mouthing contest.<p>Americans who can't afford something, generally will just budget accordingly. For example, they will order chicken instead of steak and not make a an issue of it.<p>I am truly curious about why this pecular phenomenon exists. No other nationality seems to do this the extent that Canadians do.


sean stephens

Nov 30, 1919, 12:00 AM

Post #6 of 41 (4092 views)

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Canadian Behavior in Mexico

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:
Why do many Canadians constantly seem to harp about their money? Brits, for example, are on average a lot poorer than Canadians but you don't hear them constantly complaining. <p>: It's almost as if they are in a poor-mouthing contest.<p>: Americans who can't afford something, generally will just budget accordingly. For example, they will order chicken instead of steak and not make a an issue of it.<p>: I am truly curious about why this pecular phenomenon exists. No other nationality seems to do this the extent that Canadians do.<p> As you are obviously an American, you've proven your point that the whole world already knows, but you "Americans" can't seem to understand.
I am Canadian and I don't care what my money is worth anywhere, I'm just there for the experience, yet I must say that throughout my world travels it is constantly "Americans" who are complaining about pretty much anything you can think of. Not all but the majority are rude, self-centered, clueless about the world, that being there only knowledge is about the states itself. I'd like to see others opinions about this, as I only say this because I have spent the last 8 years working in resorts all around the world.


Deanna

Nov 30, 1919, 12:00 AM

Post #7 of 41 (4092 views)

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in defense of CURIOUS

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I'm from the US and I can tell you that as a resident and experienced service industry and tourist industry worker, the AVERAGE American tourist IS loud, obnoxious and insensitive. That same tourist behaves the same way at home when he/she goes to restaurants, theaters, etc.
They treat people that way because they can get away with it and i reckon that they have no idea how offensive their behavior is.<p>On the other hand, some of the nicest, most open, friendly, easygoing folks I have met in Mexico have been from- you guessed it- the USA.<p><p>: You wrote:<p>: : Why do many Canadians constantly seem to harp about their money?<p>: I would like to know what so many Americans constantly gripe and grumble about Mexico. Why they are rude and obnoxious and loud. Why they treat people, be they Mexican, Canadian or British as if they are below them and that only they know the right way to do something.<p>: I have seen this behavior time and time again in restaurants and supermarkets and hairdressers and various organizations they join.<p>: Just curious.<p>: I hope the moderator lets this post stand, just as he let the post about Canadians stand.
: <p>


Curious

Nov 30, 1919, 12:00 AM

Post #8 of 41 (4092 views)

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American Behavior In Mexico

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You wrote:<p>: Why do many Canadians constantly seem to harp about their money?<p>I would like to know what so many Americans constantly gripe and grumble about Mexico. Why they are rude and obnoxious and loud. Why they treat people, be they Mexican, Canadian or British as if they are below them and that only they know the right way to do something.<p>I have seen this behavior time and time again in restaurants and supermarkets and hairdressers and various organizations they join.<p>Just curious.<p>I hope the moderator lets this post stand, just as he let the post about Canadians stand.


Jim Bentein

Nov 30, 1919, 12:00 AM

Post #9 of 41 (4092 views)

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Canadian Behavior in Mexico

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I normally wouldn't bother to react to such an absurd comment, but I have a few seconds. I wasn't "harping" about how much money I or other Canadians have. I was making what I thought were generalized comments about the precarious economic situation faced by all of us - Americans, Canadians, Mexicans, Germans, ect. What on earth does it matter where I come from? I happen to be a Canuck by birth but my university education was in the U.S. and now I live in Mexico. In fact, most of my net worth happens to be in U.S. dollars. If you can add something meaningful to the discussion, please do so.


Jim Bentein

Nov 30, 1919, 12:00 AM

Post #10 of 41 (4092 views)

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Great way to support your country's economy, buy US dlls.---nfm

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I wish we had bought Swiss francs. When I invest I invest - it's not about being a patriot. I also happen to own the shares of several South African gold producers. Does that mean I should move to South Africa?


oracledba

Nov 30, 1919, 12:00 AM

Post #11 of 41 (4094 views)

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Canadian Behavior in Mexico

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: I normally wouldn't bother to react to such an absurd comment, but I have a few seconds. I wasn't "harping" about how much money I or other Canadians have. I was making what I thought were generalized comments about the precarious economic situation faced by all of us - Americans, Canadians, Mexicans, Germans, ect. What on earth does it matter where I come from? I happen to be a Canuck by birth but my university education was in the U.S. and now I live in Mexico. In fact, most of my net worth happens to be in U.S. dollars. If you can add something meaningful to the discussion, please do so.<p>Canadians are aways seeing their currency (also called the "Dollar" compared to the U.S. currency. Every night the TV news tells how much the Canadian Dollar was worth that day - not in Euros, Pounds, Pesos, Deutschmarks, etc., but U.S. Dollars.<p>Not so long ago, within the memory of many people, the two currencies were practically at par, but within the last fwe decades, the Canadian Dollar has sunk against the U.S. one. Many Canadians resent this, and feel that perhaps business interests in Canada have pressured the government into creating this situation, making it easier for business to export, but at the expense of the average Canadian.<p>Thus, when a Canadian in Mexico wants to buy something priced at, say, 1000 Pesos or $100 U.S., and realizes that he will need about 150 or 155 of his Dollars, he naturally gets annoyed - not at the Mexican who determined the price (it's not his fault), nor at the American who can buy it with the stronger currency (not his fault either), but at the financial institutions in his own country.<p>


Patriot

Nov 30, 1919, 12:00 AM

Post #12 of 41 (4092 views)

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Great way to support your country's economy, buy US dlls.---nfm

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: I normally wouldn't bother to react to such an absurd comment, but I have a few seconds. I wasn't "harping" about how much money I or other Canadians have. I was making what I thought were generalized comments about the precarious economic situation faced by all of us - Americans, Canadians, Mexicans, Germans, ect. What on earth does it matter where I come from? I happen to be a Canuck by birth but my university education was in the U.S. and now I live in Mexico. In fact, most of my net worth happens to be in U.S. dollars. If you can add something meaningful to the discussion, please do so.<p>


Juan

Nov 30, 1919, 12:00 AM

Post #13 of 41 (4093 views)

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Canadian Behavior in Mexico

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: Jim,
: Maybe I read the comment by "Wondering" wrong, but I think it was in response to your statement in your previous post "(met a Canuck lately who hasn't complained about their low currency?)"<p>: I didn't read it as questioning you or where you are from, or saying you were harping. I read it as just taking your statement, now that it's out there in an open forum, and asking the question generally, hoping perhaps you can shed some light on it since you raised the issue.
---------------------------------------------------------------------<p>Hey Jim, I have to agree with LJ, I don't think "wondering" is addressing his question specifically to you. Have you ever heard the song "I bet you think this song is about you, don't you"? <p>The question and statements made by "wondering" are valid, in my opinion. There have been numerous posts by persons stating they were Canadians and complaining about the value of the Canadian dollar and comparing it to the US dollar. Also, there have been many responses to these posts. Can you tell us why Canadians, as a group, appear to be more concerned with the exchange rate than some other groups? Not saying that they are, just the impression I get from reading this board.<p>PS: I am not inquiring about you or any other specific person.


LJ

Nov 30, 1919, 12:00 AM

Post #14 of 41 (4095 views)

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Canadian Behavior in Mexico

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Jim,
Maybe I read the comment by "Wondering" wrong, but I think it was in response to your statement in your previous post "(met a Canuck lately who hasn't complained about their low currency?)"<p>I didn't read it as questioning you or where you are from, or saying you were harping. I read it as just taking your statement, now that it's out there in an open forum, and asking the question generally, hoping perhaps you can shed some light on it since you raised the issue.<p>


Scott

Nov 30, 1919, 12:00 AM

Post #15 of 41 (4093 views)

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Canadian Behavior in Mexico

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We are probably concerned because our money doesn't go very far outside of our own country. What one dollar would buy in Canada, would buy a whole lot less here in Mexico. This is why we are concerned. What we pay for a loaf of sliced white bread here would buy two loafs at any grocery store at home.


Jim Bentein

Nov 30, 1919, 12:00 AM

Post #16 of 41 (4093 views)

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Canadian Behavior in Mexico

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Simple. Canadians are so obsessed with the exchange rate because they compare themselves consistently to Americans. They're obsessed by it. They also travel (snowbirding, etc) frequently to the U.S., so a strong U.S. dollar does have a direct impact on them. And because they think of themselves as a First World nation, it's more than an economic blow to see how weak their currency is relative to the U.S. dollar. Mexicans, by contrast, are accustomed to seeing the peso as a weak sister, given its (almost) steady downward spiral over the last 30 years. Most Canadians 35 years and older can remember when the Canuck buck was actually worth more than the U.S. greenback. In fact, they shouldn't fret as much about the exchange rate as they do. That's because within Canada the Canadian dollar's Parity Purchasing Power is actually very close to what a U.S. dollar is within the U.S. So, as long as they mostly stay within their own country, they're currency buys a decent lifestyle (as long as they earn enough of them). It's when they go outside the country (Mexico included) you hear them bitch.


Uncle Donnie

Nov 30, 1919, 12:00 AM

Post #17 of 41 (4093 views)

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Thanks Jim...

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for the comment about the Parity Purchasing Power. I don't know enough about economics to have asked the question but that's something I've wondered about. Makes sense now. I think. Is there a short explanation of the process?<p>Thanks<p><p><p><p>: Simple. Canadians are so obsessed with the exchange rate because they compare themselves consistently to Americans. They're obsessed by it. They also travel (snowbirding, etc) frequently to the U.S., so a strong U.S. dollar does have a direct impact on them. And because they think of themselves as a First World nation, it's more than an economic blow to see how weak their currency is relative to the U.S. dollar. Mexicans, by contrast, are accustomed to seeing the peso as a weak sister, given its (almost) steady downward spiral over the last 30 years. Most Canadians 35 years and older can remember when the Canuck buck was actually worth more than the U.S. greenback. In fact, they shouldn't fret as much about the exchange rate as they do. That's because within Canada the Canadian dollar's Parity Purchasing Power is actually very close to what a U.S. dollar is within the U.S. So, as long as they mostly stay within their own country, they're currency buys a decent lifestyle (as long as they earn enough of them). It's when they go outside the country (Mexico included) you hear them bitch.<p>


oracledba

Nov 30, 1919, 12:00 AM

Post #18 of 41 (4092 views)

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Thanks Jim...

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: for the comment about the Parity Purchasing Power. I don't know enough about economics to have asked the question but that's something I've wondered about. Makes sense now. I think. Is there a short explanation of the process?<p>The Canadian Dollar is being kept artifically low. Its real value is about 85 to 90 cents U.S., not 63 cents. Prices tend to reflect the real value of the currency in which they are denominated.


Jim Bentein

Nov 30, 1919, 12:00 AM

Post #19 of 41 (4093 views)

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Thanks Jim...

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Most economists I talk to (and I talk to a bunch of them in my part-time work as a freelance journalist) would disagree with the assertion the Canadian dollar is being kept "artificially low". It's where it is for a variety of good reasons - relatively low worker productivity in Canada, the fact that it is a small consumer market, etc. than the U.S. - but it is probably true the governments are in no great rush to see it rise much. That's because Canada is so reliant on exports for its economic health, and obviously it's easier to sell into the (mostly U.S.) markets if the currency exchange rate is low. As for Uncle Donnie's question, there actually is a so called Big Mac measure economist have used, which looks at the price of a Big Mac in various parts of the world. Of course, it varies in different countries and cities, due to lower rents, labor costs, etc in some, compared to others. In the Canadian case, almost without exception costs for businesses are lower to operate in Canada than in many U.S. (or even Mexican) cities. Commercial real estate tends to cost much less, wages are lower (to some extent because the universal health care system means worker benefits cost companies less) and many other input costs are less. I think one of the reasons the Parity Purchasing Power of Canadians is very favorable, relative to the U.S., is because it is often viewed as a "lost leader" market by U.S. and other retailers. For instance, Walmart's basic costs of operating are covered in the U.S. and it's easy to service its stores in Canada, so it can afford to sell at prices much lower than would otherwise be the case.
Pretty long-winded, but there you are. Excuse the typos, etc.<p>


SPUD2

Nov 30, 1919, 12:00 AM

Post #20 of 41 (4094 views)

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Thanks Jim...

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: Most economists I talk to (and I talk to a bunch of them in my part-time work as a freelance journalist) would disagree with the assertion the Canadian dollar is being kept "artificially low". It's where it is for a variety of good reasons - relatively low worker productivity in Canada, the fact that it is a small consumer market, etc. than the U.S. - but it is probably true the governments are in no great rush to see it rise much. That's because Canada is so reliant on exports for its economic health, and obviously it's easier to sell into the (mostly U.S.) markets if the currency exchange rate is low. As for Uncle Donnie's question, there actually is a so called Big Mac measure economist have used, which looks at the price of a Big Mac in various parts of the world. Of course, it varies in different countries and cities, due to lower rents, labor costs, etc in some, compared to others. In the Canadian case, almost without exception costs for businesses are lower to operate in Canada than in many U.S. (or even Mexican) cities. Commercial real estate tends to cost much less, wages are lower (to some extent because the universal health care system means worker benefits cost companies less) and many other input costs are less. I think one of the reasons the Parity Purchasing Power of Canadians is very favorable, relative to the U.S., is because it is often viewed as a "lost leader" market by U.S. and other retailers. For instance, Walmart's basic costs of operating are covered in the U.S. and it's easy to service its stores in Canada, so it can afford to sell at prices much lower than would otherwise be the case.
: Pretty long-winded, but there you are. Excuse the typos, etc.<p>: Perhaps you would ask your economist friends to explain the following :-
Given that "real GDP per capita " when compared over time,describes the level of growth in PRODUCTIVITY and output levels.
Since the Fall of 1997 (according to the IMF world economic outlook Oct 2001 ) the %growth of real GDP per capita in Canada has outpreformed that of the U.S.A.
How come the Can $ has lost so much ground to the U.S.A. $ ???
I really appreciate Walmart's generousity in dumping their goods on us poor Northerners.


brad

Nov 30, 1919, 12:00 AM

Post #21 of 41 (4093 views)

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peso?

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Do you have a site or cite for the following statement? What smoke and mirrors is Fox using? <p>: By contrast, largely under pressure from international lenders (although the Fox government won't admit that) the Mexican government has artificially propped up the peso. That only works for so long.<p>
:


oracledba

Nov 30, 1919, 12:00 AM

Post #22 of 41 (4092 views)

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Canadian Behavior in Mexico

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That's because within Canada the Canadian dollar's Parity Purchasing Power is actually very close to what a U.S. dollar is within the U.S. So, as long as they mostly stay within their own country, they're currency buys a decent lifestyle (as long as they earn enough of them).<p>Sometimes even more than that. Some food items are just plain cheap, even by U.S. or even Mexican standards. For instance, in a Toronto supermarket yesterday, frozen orange juice was 79 cents Canadian for a 12 oz. can, a 28 oz. can of tomatoes was 59 cents Canadian, and six 900 gram packages of spaghetti (very good quality) were $2.97 Canadian.<p>That's about 49 cents U.S. for the orange juice and 37 cents U.S. for the tomatoes. The pasta works out to about 16 cents U.S. a pound.
These prices are low, but not uncommon.


Marlene -  Canadian in Mexico

Nov 30, 1919, 12:00 AM

Post #23 of 41 (4094 views)

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Canadian Behavior in Mexico

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I think the sooner Canadians begin to think in pesos here in Mexico, the less painful it is! It has worked for me. I don't compare myself to an American, and I am certainly not obsessed with that or the US/CAD exchange rate. Our CAD currency is just fine when compared against several others on the world market. We get paid in pesos now and we budget and spend pesos. Simple.
Marlene.<p><p>: Simple. Canadians are so obsessed with the exchange rate because they compare themselves consistently to Americans. They're obsessed by it. They also travel (snowbirding, etc) frequently to the U.S., so a strong U.S. dollar does have a direct impact on them. And because they think of themselves as a First World nation, it's more than an economic blow to see how weak their currency is relative to the U.S. dollar. Mexicans, by contrast, are accustomed to seeing the peso as a weak sister, given its (almost) steady downward spiral over the last 30 years. Most Canadians 35 years and older can remember when the Canuck buck was actually worth more than the U.S. greenback. In fact, they shouldn't fret as much about the exchange rate as they do. That's because within Canada the Canadian dollar's Parity Purchasing Power is actually very close to what a U.S. dollar is within the U.S. So, as long as they mostly stay within their own country, they're currency buys a decent lifestyle (as long as they earn enough of them). It's when they go outside the country (Mexico included) you hear them bitch.<p>


Pedro

Nov 30, 1919, 12:00 AM

Post #24 of 41 (4092 views)

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Thanks for your concerns, we need more like you in Mexico--nfm

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: Uncle Donnie is right. If I could definitely tell you what will happen to the peso next year, I'd be a fool not to make a bundle by shorting it. But here are the reasons I think it's headed further down:<p>: 1. The Mexican economy is in far worse shape than the Fox government is indicating. Mexico is reliant on the U.S. for something like 88% of its exports and we all can see where the U.S. economy is going.<p>: 2. I believe the U.S. is headed for a douple dip recession, if not worse. Some bearish economists are suggesting the U.S. may be headed for a Japanese-type malaise, where the economy enters a deflationary, no growth cycle for years. That can't be good for Mexico.<p>: 3. Canada, the other major trading partner of the U.S. has actually faired reasonably well through this downturn, but by letting its currency decline relative to the U.S. dollar. That hurts Canadians overseas (met a Canuck lately who hasn't complained about their low currency?) but props up the domestic economy. By contrast, largely under pressure from international lenders (although the Fox government won't admit that) the Mexican government has artificially propped up the peso. That only works for so long.<p>: 4. Latin America's problems will spread to Mexico. Argentina is bankrupt, Venezuela is close and Brazil may be headed there. Yes, Mexico is different, because so much of its trade is with the U.S., but it can't escape that damage completely.<p>: 5. Mexico is overly reliant on petroleum revenues, with little to fall back on. Only about 12 per cent of the federal and state governments revenues come from personal taxes. Pemex generates as much as 35-40% of the federal government's dollars. That well will start to run dry, particularly after the Iraq situation is dealt with (however that occurs). Oil and gas prices will start to fall next year, post-Iraq. That can't be good for Mexico.<p>: 6. An important source of income for many Mexicans, dollars earned fro working in the U.S., will start to dry up. As the U.S. economy further deteriorates (and I'm on the side of the bears here) the illegals will lose their jobs, replaced by unemployeed Americans who wouldn't even look at those jobs before. Tourism, another source of dollars for the Mexican economy, will suffer in a prolonged recession.<p>: If I were a betting man I'd say we're looking at 14-1 pesos to the dollar by this time next year. However, I've been surprised it has taken this long for the world to discover the emperor has clay feet. If you can convince anyone to take a long position on pesos, I'd say "slam-bam, thank you Mam".<p>: Luego <p>


oracledba

Nov 30, 1919, 12:00 AM

Post #25 of 41 (4092 views)

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peso?

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As a modest suggestion, Mexico (and Canada as well) should try increasing its business ties with the EEC. Both might even eventually apply for membership and adopt the Euro as their currency. This would make both countries less susceptible to both economic conditions in the U.S. and political pressure from it, and stabilize their currencies as well.
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