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Rolly


Jun 10, 2014, 11:51 AM

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How Safe is México

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http://www.banderasnews.com/...w-safe-is-mexico.htm

Rolly Pirate



cbviajero

Jun 10, 2014, 12:59 PM

Post #2 of 24 (10504 views)

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Re: [Rolly] How Safe is México

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Hmmm.I find the kidnapping rates for Mexico vs Canada particularly hard to believe,but who knows?


DavidMcL


Jun 10, 2014, 2:52 PM

Post #3 of 24 (10481 views)

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Re: [cbviajero] How Safe is México

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Kidnapping for ransom rates 2013:
1. Mexico
2. India
3. Nigeria
4. Pakistan
5. Venezuela
6. Lebanon
7. Philippines
8. Afghanistan
9. Colombia
10. Iraq
11. Syria
12. Guatemala
13. Yemen
14. Libya
15. Egypt
16. Brazil
16. Kenya (tied)
18. Nepal
19. Malaysia
19. South Africa (tied)

Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/top-20-countries-by-kidnapping-2013-12#ixzz34H9l5eo8

However, if we look at absolute rates including child abduction (marital), then a different story emerges:
Number of kidnappings recorded by police in that country per 100,000 population: (varying years of record)
1 Turkey 14.84 2006
2 Canada 13.82 2006
3 Kuwait 11.52 2006
4 Swaziland 8.61 2006
5 Scotland 7.45 2004
6 South Africa 6.65 2004
7 Tunisia 5.77 2006
8 Portugal 5.25 2006
9 Luxembourg 5.14 2006
10 Sri Lanka 4.48 2006
11 Australia 3.81 2006
12 Belgium 3.68 2006
13 Switzerland 3.66 2004
14 France 3.53 2006
15 Northern Ireland 3.1 2006
16 Bahrain 2.82 2004
17 Belize 2.77 2002
18 Turkmenistan 2.66 2006
19 Bulgaria 2.46 2002
20 India 2.09 2006
21 United Arab Emirates 1.94 2006
22 Ireland 1.87 2006
23 Cyprus 1.78 2006
24 Lithuania 1.77 2006
25 Zimbabwe 1.58 2006
26 Romania 1.34 2006
27 New Zealand 0.91 2006
28 Lebanon 0.9 2004
29 Nepal 0.89 2006
30 Armenia 0.85 2006
31 Georgia 0.77 2003
32 Qatar 0.75 2004
33 Bangladesh 0.72 2006
34 Chile 0.71 2006
35 Iceland 0.7 2006
36 Jordan 0.59 2005
37 Mexico 0.56 2006
David McL
WebJefe

(This post was edited by RickS on Jun 11, 2014, 5:52 AM)


cbviajero

Jun 10, 2014, 3:41 PM

Post #4 of 24 (10470 views)

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Re: [DavidMcL] How Safe is México

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Well you have to consider the source of the article.
The disturbing statistic is Mexico's #1 ranking in ransom kidnappings and just from personal experience I don't doubt that it's true.Another disturbing thing is how often police are involved in the kidnappings..


(This post was edited by cbviajero on Jun 10, 2014, 4:04 PM)


Sonia Diaz


Jun 14, 2014, 12:48 PM

Post #5 of 24 (10299 views)

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Re: [cbviajero] How Safe is México

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It is estimated 88% of Mexican crime is not reported and I suspect that applies to kidnappings. Few Mexicans turn to the police for help.

Sonia
https://www.facebook.com/pages/Sonia/252211011634302


Musicman

Jul 2, 2014, 12:42 PM

Post #6 of 24 (9910 views)

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Re: [Rolly] How Safe is México

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Kidnappings aside, is it safe to travel from Arizona to Guadalajara by car? It has been ten years since I last made the trip and am curious to know if there have been any reported incidents in recent months.


citlali

Jul 2, 2014, 1:24 PM

Post #7 of 24 (9896 views)

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Re: [Sonia Diaz] How Safe is México

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I wonder if most kidnappings are reported or not. I know quite a few people who had relatives kidnapped and they all went tot he MP. It was kept very quiet but the MP was in the loop. None of these people went to the police.


Sonia Diaz


Jul 2, 2014, 1:32 PM

Post #8 of 24 (9889 views)

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Re: [citlali] How Safe is México

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http://www.huffingtonpost.com/...pings_n_4036902.html
https://www.facebook.com/pages/Sonia/252211011634302

(This post was edited by Rolly on Jul 2, 2014, 2:23 PM)


Rolly


Jul 2, 2014, 2:25 PM

Post #9 of 24 (9868 views)

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Re: [Sonia Diaz] How Safe is México

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Note that Sonia's link reports numbers from 2012.

Rolly Pirate


YucaLandia


Jul 2, 2014, 4:17 PM

Post #10 of 24 (9845 views)

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Re: [Musicman] How Safe is México

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For the past 7 years, we have tracked personal posts on 6 expat Mexican webforums, including the 2 big webboards for Guadalajara and Lake Chalapa area. The net conclusions are to stay out of Tamaulipas, Tampico, and Vera Cruz which are the Gulf Coast route.

There have really been no verified nor first person reports of serious problems for American or Canadians transiting Arizona to the Guadalajara area. There have been some cocktail-party 3'rd hand reports of problems for Americans or Canadians on that route - but to the best of our knowledge, 10,000's of people make the trip safely, with zero or near zero violent or kidnapping events for American and Canadian foreigners transiting that route.

We really do welcome people to present documented evidence of serious problems of violence, extortion, or kidnappings experienced by Americans or Canadians transiting from Arizona to Guadalajara over the past 2 years. It would be a big help.

In contrast, there are recent documented and first hand reports of violence, threatened violence, extortion attempts, and kidnappings for Americans and Canadians transiting the Tamaulipas - Vera Cruz state routes.
steve
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E-visit at http://yucalandia.com


richmx2


Jul 3, 2014, 6:02 PM

Post #11 of 24 (9726 views)

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Re: [Sonia Diaz] How Safe is México

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Not to be snarky, and I'm not trying to be a smarty... but how can one estimate unreported crimes? And come up with a specific percentage figure?


http://mexfiles.net
http://mexicobookpublishers.com


AlanMexicali


Jul 3, 2014, 11:19 PM

Post #12 of 24 (9677 views)

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Re: [richmx2] How Safe is México

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Not to be snarky, and I'm not trying to be a smarty... but how can one estimate unreported crimes? And come up with a specific percentage figure?


Instituto Nacional de Estadística y Geografía (INEGI) takes a yearly poll in municipal centers of 100,000 population or more and El DF and polls 300 people in each center. [only 300 people polled in El DF] It asks these people if they would report a crime. If 80% say no on average they take a crime statistic and state if 100 reported crimes for a specific type of crime is reported then total crimes of this type per year is 500.

The polls are sometimes 3 or 4 pages long with many questions and most people who are busy would possibly not bother to take one of these surveys. Possibly people with nothing to do might. They might be getting the major portion of opinions from people with the least information to give answers that have any valuable input. Who knows?


(This post was edited by AlanMexicali on Jul 3, 2014, 11:44 PM)


YucaLandia


Jul 4, 2014, 7:20 AM

Post #13 of 24 (9637 views)

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Re: [AlanMexicali] How Safe is México

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Cool explanation. I answered those INEGI questions Alan describes - saying: "Yes, we report some crimes, but no, we do not report all crimes." The INEGI interviewer probed for us to say exactly which crimes (and how many) we reported, and which ones (and how many) we did not report.

We reported express secuestro attempts (phone kidnappings), and a stolen computer - because we felt it important that police know what/how was happening and track the levels of crime in our neighborhood. We have not reported minor thefts by workers.

If other homeowners are similarly diligent and honest in their reporting to INEGI, then the system Alan describes works.
Thanks Alan.
steve
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Read-on MacDuff
E-visit at http://yucalandia.com


chris cooper

Jul 4, 2014, 7:33 AM

Post #14 of 24 (9631 views)

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Re: [YucaLandia] How Safe is México

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Cool explanation. I answered those INEGI questions Alan describes - saying: "Yes, we report some crimes, but no, we do not report all crimes." The INEGI interviewer probed for us to say exactly which crimes (and how many) we reported, and which ones (and how many) we did not report.

We reported express secuestro attempts (phone kidnappings), and a stolen computer - because we felt it important that police know what/how was happening and track the levels of crime in our neighborhood. We have not reported minor thefts by workers.

If other homeowners are similarly diligent and honest in their reporting to INEGI, then the system Alan describes works.
Thanks Alan.
steve


A slight nitpick. Secuestro expres are not the phony extortions over the phone. They grab the victim and take them to an ATM and make them withdraw the maximum amount possible or sometimes extract a ransom from the family in a short time frame, usually resolved in less than 48 hours.


AlanMexicali


Jul 4, 2014, 8:22 AM

Post #15 of 24 (9612 views)

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Re: [YucaLandia] How Safe is México

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Cool explanation. I answered those INEGI questions Alan describes - saying: "Yes, we report some crimes, but no, we do not report all crimes." The INEGI interviewer probed for us to say exactly which crimes (and how many) we reported, and which ones (and how many) we did not report.

We reported express secuestro attempts (phone kidnappings), and a stolen computer - because we felt it important that police know what/how was happening and track the levels of crime in our neighborhood. We have not reported minor thefts by workers.

If other homeowners are similarly diligent and honest in their reporting to INEGI, then the system Alan describes works.
Thanks Alan.
steve



They poll people 18 years old and older. I have a problem with the demographics of these people that they poll and their ability to be unbiased and unprejudiced enough to influence their opinions.

1/2 the cities are in places where possibly the MP and pólice are incompetent by reputation and in practice and larger sophisticated cities only get a 300 share including the 8 to 9 million in El DF.

Also where are the majority of pollers in the socioeconomic class and of what educational classification? Do most pollers use hearsay, rumors and gossip to come to an opinión or actual experiences from themselves and reliable associates?

The methodology of the INEGI has been critized sharply by many experts around the globe and IMO rightfully so.

Cities over 100,000:

http://es.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anexo:Ciudades_de_M%C3%A9xico_m%C3%A1s_pobladas


YucaLandia


Jul 4, 2014, 8:26 AM

Post #16 of 24 (9607 views)

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Re: [AlanMexicali] How Safe is México

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Dandy stuff.
It's fun to see what's really going on, if you know how and where to scratch through the veneer. Thanks!
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E-visit at http://yucalandia.com


cbviajero

Jul 4, 2014, 10:15 AM

Post #17 of 24 (9573 views)

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Re: [chris cooper] How Safe is México

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A slight nitpick. Secuestro expres are not the phony extortions over the phone. They grab the victim and take them to an ATM and make them withdraw the maximum amount possible or sometimes extract a ransom from the family in a short time frame, usually resolved in less than 48 hours.

That's not nitpicking,there's a huge difference between a secuestro expres, which involves a physical abduction,and a phone extortion scam.


(This post was edited by cbviajero on Jul 4, 2014, 10:17 AM)


YucaLandia


Jul 4, 2014, 12:03 PM

Post #18 of 24 (9539 views)

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Re: [cbviajero] How Safe is México

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Yep. secuestros expres... I can't imagine the stress of being car-jacked, taken under gun-point to ATMs, to drain my accounts...

Background: We went through a cycle of various phone scammers calling from DF, pretending to be "prima Maria"**, begging that we pay to have her released, and then another version with a woman crying "papi, papi, rescateme..." in the background, as a threatening male voice demands $pesos. A third group of extortionists pretended they knew where we lived, speaking English, and that they were "watching our car and home"... I laughed and tortured them with lots of fake details.... and fake offers of payments with questions of where and how to meet and pay them. ... When they realized their tonteria was exposed, they cursed me and hung up... And yes, I did report these phone extortions to the policía. Our police were grateful for the updates.


**Don't pretty much all Mexicans have a "prima Maria" living somewhere in Mexico?
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(This post was edited by YucaLandia on Jul 4, 2014, 12:09 PM)


La Isla


Jul 4, 2014, 12:19 PM

Post #19 of 24 (9530 views)

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Re: [YucaLandia] How Safe is México

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I get a lot of wrong numbers on my landline phone, so unless I recognize the phone number on the little screen on my telephone, I usually don't pick up and let the call go to voice mail. I wonder if any of these calls were kidnap scams.


AlanMexicali


Jul 4, 2014, 2:12 PM

Post #20 of 24 (9508 views)

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Re: [cbviajero] How Safe is México

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In Reply To

A slight nitpick. Secuestro expres are not the phony extortions over the phone. They grab the victim and take them to an ATM and make them withdraw the maximum amount possible or sometimes extract a ransom from the family in a short time frame, usually resolved in less than 48 hours.

That's not nitpicking,there's a huge difference between a secuestro expres, which involves a physical abduction,and a phone extortion scam.



Actually there has been news reports here of people being scared enough by phone to not contact their families for a given number of hours so extortionists can call the family and demand a ransom for the return of the person or else. It has been reported to the MP and they have verified this as being a problem in some áreas of Mexico.


(This post was edited by AlanMexicali on Jul 4, 2014, 2:13 PM)


citlali

Jul 4, 2014, 2:49 PM

Post #21 of 24 (9495 views)

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Re: [AlanMexicali] How Safe is México

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Frankly people do not know what they will do in the case of a kidnapping. I have see 4 families reactions and they all went to the Procaduria. so I do not believe the statistics. It is easy to say no I will not report it , it is another thing to not do it when it happens to a love one.
The last family who lost their nephew were indigenous and they went to the Ministerio Publoco when indigenous are known not to trust the police or the justice system.
By the way none of the peopke I know got their love ones back. The last one was in April ,the kidnappers asked 10 million pesos from a poor family. The Ministerio
Publico investigated, found out the name of the person who owned the cell phone where the message from the kidnappers was. The family was investigated, all communication stopped and it is now 2 months later and no news from the victim..
Another person that will never be found or returned..

I believe that rapes, robberies, assaults are underreported as far as kidnapping goes I believe they are reported far more often than people admit .
As far as asking people who are not in that situation what they would do is useless.


(This post was edited by citlali on Jul 4, 2014, 2:52 PM)


chris cooper

Jul 4, 2014, 3:12 PM

Post #22 of 24 (9486 views)

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Re: [AlanMexicali] How Safe is México

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In Reply To

In Reply To

A slight nitpick. Secuestro expres are not the phony extortions over the phone. They grab the victim and take them to an ATM and make them withdraw the maximum amount possible or sometimes extract a ransom from the family in a short time frame, usually resolved in less than 48 hours.

That's not nitpicking,there's a huge difference between a secuestro expres, which involves a physical abduction,and a phone extortion scam.





Actually there has been news reports here of people being scared enough by phone to not contact their families for a given number of hours so extortionists can call the family and demand a ransom for the return of the person or else. It has been reported to the MP and they have verified this as being a problem in some áreas of Mexico.


That still isn't a secuestro expres. No one is held against their will or physically assaulted. There is a big difference. The phone call extortion is widespread with many households receiving the bogus threats.


(This post was edited by chris cooper on Jul 4, 2014, 3:16 PM)


richmx2


Jul 4, 2014, 6:34 PM

Post #23 of 24 (9459 views)

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Re: [YucaLandia] How Safe is México

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I have standing orders to pull a "Ransom of Red Chief" response. Demand 10,000 pesos to take me back.


http://mexfiles.net
http://mexicobookpublishers.com


YucaLandia


Jul 5, 2014, 9:00 AM

Post #24 of 24 (9394 views)

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Re: [richmx2] How Safe is México

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LOL....
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E-visit at http://yucalandia.com
 
 
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