Aug 7, 2012, 4:55 PM
Post #2 of 6
Ongoing Updated Most Recent Ernesto Plot
Re: [YucaLandia] Planning Vera Cruz, Tabasco, Campeche, Q Roo, or Yucatan Travel?
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Current NWS Ernesto Plot: Showing the Current US NWS Natl. Hurricane Center’s Storm-Center Path Projections
Tuesday 7 PM, August 7′th Ernesto Update:
As predicted, the storm center has strengthened into a Cat 1 hurricane, with a small central core of 80 mph Maximum velocity winds, and gusts to 100 mph. This core area of hurricane strength winds is at most only 40 miles across ~ aimed a little north of Mahaul. The surrounding area of Tropical Storm force winds between 40-73 mph, is only 200 miles wide (ranging from Cozumel to about 1/3 of the way down Belize).
Ernesto will lose a lot of strength as it moves over land, so, Merida and Progresso should only experience 30-60 mph winds.
Based on Ernesto’s current speed, the heavy consistent rains should start at about 10 PM tonight for Merida and Progreso, and last for 6-8 hours until about 6-8 AM Wed. morning. Since Ernesto is a fairly disorganized storm with only a relatively small center, then it is spinning out arms of rain storms like a big pinwheel, with areas of only weak clouds between the arms. This will make for intermittent rain storms passing over Merida and Progreso through the daytime on Wednesday, as the bands of storms pass overhead, followed by the gaps of low intensity clouds.
The color satellite map on Weather Underground tells the whole picture.
Tuesday Evening Satellite Foto of Ernesto
Check out where the white dot in the center will make landfall on Q.Roo’s coast.
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