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YucaLandia

Aug 6, 2012, 2:43 PM

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Planning Vera Cruz, Tabasco, Campeche, Q Roo, or Yucatan Travel?

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Monday Afternoon, August 6'th Ernesto Update:
Tropical Storm Ernesto has been gaining strength today. At 4 PM Monday, Ernesto has 65 mph sustained winds with gusts up to 75 mph. It's current most likely path takes the storm center south of Yucatan State, with the computer models of the center-of-storm paths converging on Chetumal, Quintana Roo, with the center of the storm making landfall at 2 AM Wednesday.

This likely means rain, rain, rain for Merida / Progreso on Wed - Fri. Ernesto should pop out into the Bay of Campeche and if it regains strength after moving off-shore, it could dump a lot of rain on Campeche, Tabasco, and Vera Cruz later this week. If Ernesto gains strength (as expected) in the Gulf of Mexico, then people planning car travel later this week across Tabasco or Vera Cruz may find some roads washed out where they cross arroyos.

Details at http://yucalandia.wordpress.com/...tos-potential-paths/

Weather Underground Map

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YucaLandia

Aug 7, 2012, 4:55 PM

Post #2 of 6 (1807 views)

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Re: [YucaLandia] Planning Vera Cruz, Tabasco, Campeche, Q Roo, or Yucatan Travel?

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Ongoing Updated Most Recent Ernesto Plot

Current NWS Ernesto Plot: Showing the Current US NWS Natl. Hurricane Center’s Storm-Center Path Projections
Tuesday 7 PM, August 7′th Ernesto Update:
As predicted, the storm center has strengthened into a Cat 1 hurricane, with a small central core of 80 mph Maximum velocity winds, and gusts to 100 mph. This core area of hurricane strength winds is at most only 40 miles across ~ aimed a little north of Mahaul. The surrounding area of Tropical Storm force winds between 40-73 mph, is only 200 miles wide (ranging from Cozumel to about 1/3 of the way down Belize).
Ernesto will lose a lot of strength as it moves over land, so, Merida and Progresso should only experience 30-60 mph winds.
Based on Ernesto’s current speed, the heavy consistent rains should start at about 10 PM tonight for Merida and Progreso, and last for 6-8 hours until about 6-8 AM Wed. morning. Since Ernesto is a fairly disorganized storm with only a relatively small center, then it is spinning out arms of rain storms like a big pinwheel, with areas of only weak clouds between the arms. This will make for intermittent rain storms passing over Merida and Progreso through the daytime on Wednesday, as the bands of storms pass overhead, followed by the gaps of low intensity clouds.
The color satellite map on Weather Underground tells the whole picture.

Tuesday Evening Satellite Foto of Ernesto
Check out where the white dot in the center will make landfall on Q.Roo’s coast.
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Sunnyvmx

Aug 8, 2012, 2:12 AM

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Re: [YucaLandia] Planning Vera Cruz, Tabasco, Campeche, Q Roo, or Yucatan Travel?

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My ex has flown in to drive the RV back to Houston for his kids. I'm through with a vehicle in Mexico. Except for my scooter which I dearly love. We had planned to leave Friday morning early, but instead we will step up our efforts to leave tomorrow, Thursday morning and get far enough north to avoid most of the storm and aftermath debri and flooding. We will be watching the path of the storm carefully today, hopefully it won't build up to hurricane strength again. Still, I'll be moving all the container plants in the garden to sheltered areas to avoid the heavy downpours.

I'll let you know how the trip goes next week when I return from shopping Wal-Mart, PetCo and Radio Shack. This won't be the first Hurricane I've run from and it's always exciting. Wish us luck.

http://dementias-daughter.com. Now over 25,000 hits.

YucaLandia

Aug 9, 2012, 6:06 AM

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Re: [Sunnyvmx] Planning Vera Cruz, Tabasco, Campeche, Q Roo, or Yucatan Travel?

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Sunny,
Best of luck with your travels.

Since the storm center is tracking almost over land as Ernesto crosses the Bay of Campeche, hopefully the rainfall won't be so heavy as to wash out roadways.

As we predicted, Ernesto took a route south of Yucatan State. The satellite fotos gave us reliable data to make the estimates. In Merida, we had some rain starting at about 11:30 AM Tuesday and continued sporadically until about 4 PM, our winds did kick up at 11 PM Tuesday night, followed by light rain through the night until about 8 AM Wednesday. We had cloud cover throughout Wed, but no daytime rain, and had sunny skies after 4:00 PM.

Ernesto did strengthen as the center reached the Bay of Campeche, and it is predicted to continue to strengthen until about 11 AM Thursday (today). It still packs a punch with heavy rains and 45-75 mph winds near the coast, diminishing to 45 mph inland. The center should move WSW across Mexico, and move into the Pacific exiting Guerro by about 9 AM Friday. This means rain for Vera Cruz and Tabasco can continue until Friday AM.
steve
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joaquinx

Aug 9, 2012, 6:38 AM

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Re: [YucaLandia] Planning Vera Cruz, Tabasco, Campeche, Q Roo, or Yucatan Travel?

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Here in Xalapa, we got a lot of rain last night along with high winds. Yesterday, a friend in Minatitlan said that they were experiencing heavy rains. I expect the only flooding to be in the low areas of Veracruz, el puerto, and the towns and villages in the Papaloapan basin especially Tlacotalpan. And in the Coatzcoalcos river area.
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My desire to be well-informed is currently at odds with my desire to remain sane.

(This post was edited by joaquinx on Aug 9, 2012, 6:40 AM)

Sunnyvmx

Aug 15, 2012, 3:15 AM

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Re: [YucaLandia] Planning Vera Cruz, Tabasco, Campeche, Q Roo, or Yucatan Travel?

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I'm baaaaack. We left Thursday morning at 8am with Ernesto in the rear view mirror. The rain and some wind battered us all the way north to Tampico. The crashing waves offshore were fantastic in Alvarado and Costa Esmeralda. We arrived at the bridge in Tampico after dark as traveling was slow all day and we pulled over to sleep until 5am. With little traffic at that hour we soon left Tampico and made the final run for the border. At the border crossing toll booth, the RV quit running. My novio said it refused to leave Mexico and maybe he was right. If it hadn't been frustrating, it would have been funny. We suspected it was the fuel pump and after cooling down it started and ran all the way to Corpus Christie where the mechanic confirmed our suspicions. Larry's son's drove down to pick us up and now it's their problem and no longer mine.

On the flight back I saw pastures and waterways flooded, but no damage and except for the thorough search by agents and dog on the U.S. side at the border it was an easy trip. The roads were in much better condition than they have been in previous trips. I came back with a suitcase full of purchased supplies and got the green light so all is well.

http://dementias-daughter.com. Now over 25,000 hits.