Aug 5, 2012, 5:50 PM
Post #1 of 6
We have been holding our breath the past few days, watching the US NWS Natl. Hurricane Center's projections for Tropical Storm Ernesto. The simplest plot of the range of likely storm center paths looked like it was aimed right at Merida and Progreso.
Tropical Storm Ernesto's Potential Path(s)
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Ironically, none of the models actually projected such a path. Instead the models actually predicted southern routes and northern routes, such that when you ignored the metereological data, and instead took the overly simplistic numerical average of the individual models to show a path through Merida.
We reported on this at Yucalandia (http://yucalandia.wordpress.com/...tos-potential-paths/), running counter to the other Yucateco gringo predictions for Ernesto. The data models showed relatively equal likelihood paths for landfall at the southern tip of Belize as for landfall at western Cuba. The data models have also shown that they really don't diverge until Monday morning.
We have been hoping for a southern route, which saves Cozumel, Cancun, and Merida from heavy storm damage, so it was a relief to see the storm tracking along the more southern route. Still, the current models again do not diverge until Monday, so, we will have to wait until tomorrow to get a sense of whether the storm center will make landfall in southern Belize ... or at Chetumal ... or along a northern path around Akumal/Cozumel, but the latest data shows a southern path to be more likely.
One consequence of Ernesto maybe heavy rains for the Yucatan Peninsula, but if it pops out into the Bay of Campeche and regains strength, it could dump on Tabasco and Vera Cruz later this week (?)
We'll keep tracking it at Yucalandia, for those with travel plans in or out of Cancun, or driving through the Villa Hermosa - Vera Cruz corridor.
Keeping our fingers crossed for good news on Monday.
Dr. Steven Fry
E-visit at http://yucalandia.com