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YucaLandia

Aug 5, 2012, 5:50 PM

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Tropical Storm Ernesto's Potential Path(s)

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We have been holding our breath the past few days, watching the US NWS Natl. Hurricane Center's projections for Tropical Storm Ernesto. The simplest plot of the range of likely storm center paths looked like it was aimed right at Merida and Progreso.

Ironically, none of the models actually projected such a path. Instead the models actually predicted southern routes and northern routes, such that when you ignored the metereological data, and instead took the overly simplistic numerical average of the individual models to show a path through Merida.

We reported on this at Yucalandia (http://yucalandia.wordpress.com/...tos-potential-paths/), running counter to the other Yucateco gringo predictions for Ernesto. The data models showed relatively equal likelihood paths for landfall at the southern tip of Belize as for landfall at western Cuba. The data models have also shown that they really don't diverge until Monday morning.

We have been hoping for a southern route, which saves Cozumel, Cancun, and Merida from heavy storm damage, so it was a relief to see the storm tracking along the more southern route. Still, the current models again do not diverge until Monday, so, we will have to wait until tomorrow to get a sense of whether the storm center will make landfall in southern Belize ... or at Chetumal ... or along a northern path around Akumal/Cozumel, but the latest data shows a southern path to be more likely.

One consequence of Ernesto maybe heavy rains for the Yucatan Peninsula, but if it pops out into the Bay of Campeche and regains strength, it could dump on Tabasco and Vera Cruz later this week (?)

We'll keep tracking it at Yucalandia, for those with travel plans in or out of Cancun, or driving through the Villa Hermosa - Vera Cruz corridor.

Keeping our fingers crossed for good news on Monday.
Dr. Steven Fry
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YucaLandia

Aug 6, 2012, 6:24 AM

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Re: [YucaLandia] Tropical Storm Ernesto's Potential Path(s)

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Monday, August 6'th Ernesto Update:
Tropical Storm Ernesto has been losing strength due to becoming disorganized. It's current most likely path takes the storm center well south of Yucatan, possibly over Honduras, which will likely diminish its strength from going over land. Current Monday models are converging (as we predicted) to show storm center landfall midway up Belize, which likely means rain, rain, rain for Merida / Progreso on Wed - Fri. If Ernesto pops out into the Bay of Campeche and regains strength, it could dump a lot of rain on Campeche, Tabasco, and Vera Cruz later this week. If Ernesto gains strength in the Gulf of Mexico, then people planning car travel later this week across Tabasco or Vera Cruz may find some roads washed out where they cross arroyos.
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YucaLandia

Aug 6, 2012, 2:41 PM

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Re: [YucaLandia] Tropical Storm Ernesto's Potential Path(s)

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Monday Afternoon, August 6'th Ernesto Update:
Tropical Storm Ernesto has been gaining strength today. At 4 PM Monday, Ernesto has 65 mph sustained winds with gusts up to 75 mph. It's current most likely path takes the storm center south of Yucatan State, with the computer models of the center-of-storm paths converging on Chetumal, Quintana Roo, with the center of the storm making landfall at 2 AM Wednesday.

This likely means rain, rain, rain for Merida / Progreso on Wed - Fri. Ernesto should pop out into the Bay of Campeche and if it regains strength after moving off-shore, it could dump a lot of rain on Campeche, Tabasco, and Vera Cruz later this week. If Ernesto gains strength (as expected) in the Gulf of Mexico, then people planning car travel later this week across Tabasco or Vera Cruz may find some roads washed out where they cross arroyos.

http://yucalandia.wordpress.com/...tos-potential-paths/

Weather Underground Map

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Papirex

Aug 7, 2012, 9:42 AM

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Re: [YucaLandia] Tropical Storm Ernesto's Potential Path(s)

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Maybe we have been getting a little bit of Ernesto here in Morelos State lately. We have been having trueno and rayos (thunder and lightening) accompanied by rain most nights lately. Last night the rain started after dark, The thunder and lightening started after 11 PM. It was a heavy, heavy rain. I could hear it on the roof and windows after I went to bed. It is a sunny day this morning with no sign of rain. I think that Ernesto is probably up around Queretaro by now (that's a guess).

On the rare occasions when a hurricane from the Gulf comes ashore, and passes through México City, and México State, it usually heads straight for us, but I think the mountain between us divides it, so it goes on either side of us, and we usually only get high winds, but no rain. Not lately though. It does only rain at night here usually though.

The two Mexican dogs that adopted me sleep right through the racket and flashes though, the only accommodation that they make for the weather here, is that they don't want to go outside before they go to bed if it is raining, They are super ready to go outside in the morning though.

If there is such a thing, we have close to the ideal climate in Cuernavaca and Morelos State, It is never hot, or cold, and it usually only rains at night here. It is much less cold in the winter than in our former home in México (City).

Rex
"The supreme happiness of life is the conviction that we are loved" - Victor Hugo

YucaLandia

Aug 7, 2012, 4:57 PM

Post #5 of 6 (2386 views)

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Re: [YucaLandia] Tropical Storm Ernesto's Potential Path(s)

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Ongoing Weather Undergrounde Most Recent Ernesto Plot

Current NWS Ernesto Plot: Showing the Current US NWS Natl. Hurricane Center’s Storm-Center Path Projections
Tuesday 7 PM, August 7′th Ernesto Update:
As predicted, the storm center has strengthened into a Cat 1 hurricane, with a small central core of 80 mph Maximum velocity winds, and gusts to 100 mph. This core area of hurricane strength winds is at most only 40 miles across ~ aimed a little north of Mahaul. The surrounding area of Tropical Storm force winds between 40-73 mph, is only 200 miles wide (ranging from Cozumel to about 1/3 of the way down Belize).

Ernesto will lose a lot of strength as it moves over land, so, Merida and Progresso should only experience 30-60 mph winds.

Based on Ernesto’s current speed, the heavy consistent rains should start at about 10 PM tonight for Merida and Progreso, and last for 6-8 hours until about 6-8 AM Wed. morning. Since Ernesto is a fairly disorganized storm with only a relatively small center, then it is spinning out arms of rain storms like a big pinwheel, with areas of only weak clouds between the arms. This will make for intermittent rain storms passing over Merida and Progreso through the daytime on Wednesday, as the bands of storms pass overhead, followed by the gaps of low intensity clouds.

The color satellite map on Weather Underground tells the whole picture.

Tuesday Evening Satellite Foto of Ernesto
Check out where the white dot in the center will make landfall on Q.Roo’s coast.
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YucaLandia

Aug 9, 2012, 6:08 AM

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Re: [Papirex] Tropical Storm Ernesto's Potential Path(s)

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See the map in the previous post.

As we predicted, Ernesto took a route south of Yucatan State. The satellite fotos gave us reliable data to make the estimates. In Merida, we had some rain starting at about 11:30 AM Tuesday and continued sporadically until about 4 PM, our winds did kick up at 11 PM Tuesday night, followed by light rain through the night until about 8 AM Wednesday. We had cloud cover throughout Wed, but no daytime rain, and had sunny skies after 4:00 PM.

Ernesto did strengthen as the center reached the Bay of Campeche, and it is predicted to continue to strengthen until about 11 AM Thursday (today). It still packs a punch with heavy rains and 45-75 mph winds near the coast, diminishing to 45 mph inland. The center should move WSW across Mexico, and move into the Pacific exiting Guerro by about 9 AM Friday. This means rain for Vera Cruz and Tabasco can continue until Friday AM.
steve
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