Mar 12, 2012, 8:14 PM
Post #16 of 24
Re: [chinagringo] Australia Murder Rate for Canadian Tourists higher than Mexico at #5
Can't Post | Private Reply
From Wikipedia: "
"Lies, damned lies, and statistics
" is a phrase describing the persuasive power of numbers, particularly the use of statistics
to bolster weak arguments
. It is also sometimes colloquially used to doubt statistics used to prove an opponent's point."
When planning a trip to Mexico and determining where we choose to travel, we ignore NOB media, we ignore the travel warnings, we ignore comparison studies with other countries or cities and pay attention to the one thing that means something - actual "on the ground reports" from where we wish to go. The rest is totally meaningless!
Seeing a comparison study about the probability of a Canadian having a problem in Mexico versus Australia is BS
and the NOB press knows that but they are in the business to sell the news.
Again, I am perplexed by the repeated misrepresentations.
The data presented are simple counts of the numbers of Canadians who have actually been reported injured or murdered by the Canadian Govt. They are not :
... probabilit(ies) of a Canadian having a problem in Mexico versus Australia...
It is yet another red.herring to falsely label actual data rates as probabilities or as statistics.
If I count 100 cars that went past my home last week, and 20 of them are Fords, then it is accurate and precise to report that: 20% of the vehicles that I saw going past my house last week were Fords. Reporting "20% Fords" is neither statistics nor probabilities.
The Canadian Govt. report has nothing to do with probabilities.
This report has nothing to do with visitors to Canada.
This report has nothing to do with how the Mex. Gob. calculates or reports their statistics.
This report has nothing to do with crime statistics from Canada, Vancouver, Detroit, et al
This report has nothing to do with statistically massaged data.
As simple Rates, calculated based on millions of data points, the data should be meaningful.
By spinning the report results with artificial and inapplicable and false interpretations, and false labels, and misdirections, the criticisms are actually the parts of this thread that contain the distortions.
This report describes simple numbers of Canadian visitors to other countries over an 11 year period and the numbers of Canadians reporting assaults and murders to their government. The authors then do a simple division of the number of Canadians murdered over 11 years in each country divided by the total number of Canadian visits to that country during that period. That actual rate of # of murders per visitor is then multiplied by 100,000 to get a rate for 100,000 people-
If the critics think it is unreasonable to calculate actual rates, and then to multiply by 100,000 to get figures that apply to cities and countries, then you likely think that all rate calculations are supposedly BS.
e.g. If you divide your weekly pay figure by 40 hours and then multiply by 2200 hours per year, you get your annual salary of $$ per year. Is that rate somehow also BS? By confusing rates with probabilities, it creates a false distorted impression, and it makes a false charge - which does exactly what you accuse me of ~~ creating false impressions by misusing data ~~.
Which approach is actually "meaningless" ? False labeling? Raising inapplicable things that do not exist in the report?
I suspect that the critics have a bias towards what they imagine Australia to be. I note that none of them were willing to report whether they previously believed that Mexico had higher murder rates for Canadian visitors than Australia.
Me? I personally thought that there would be a much lower murder rate for Canadians visiting Australia - so, I was surprised that "that Mexico is #5, just behind Australia for (11 years of) murder rates for Canadian tourists" .
Critics might also notice that I described exactly these 3 items in my first post: " just behind Australia " and "rates" and "Canadian tourists" .
E-visit at http://yucalandia.com
(This post was edited by YucaLandia on Mar 12, 2012, 8:51 PM)