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YucaLandia


Mar 12, 2012, 3:19 PM

Post #1 of 24 (2663 views)

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Australia Murder Rate for Canadian Tourists higher than Mexico at #5

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CBC reports the following order for nations with the highest murder rates for Canadian tourists:
Jamaica
China
Dominican Republic
AUSTRALIA
and
Mexico.

http://www.cbc.ca/...ence-statistics.html
CBC reports that Mexico is #5, just behind Australia for murder rates for Canadian tourists, but checks of past CBC reports show very very different styles of reporting. Violent Canadian tourist deaths in Australia are reported in bland factual terms vs. lurid reports with appeals from family members on Mexican deaths and bold headlines and graphic pictures.

http://www.cbc.ca/...ence-statistics.html
vs.
http://www.cbc.ca/...ple.html?cmp=rss and
http://www.cbc.ca/...-killed.html?cmp=rss

For people considering visiting Mexico: Official Murder rates for Canadian tourists are higher in 4 other tourist destinations, including Australia and China - than Mexico: http://www.cbc.ca/...ence-statistics.html
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Read-on MacDuff
E-visit at http://yucalandia.com

(This post was edited by YucaLandia on Mar 12, 2012, 3:43 PM)

chinagringo


Mar 12, 2012, 3:42 PM

Post #2 of 24 (2645 views)

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Re: [YucaLandia] Australia Murder Rate for Canadian Tourists higher than Mexico at #5

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Why this constant need to attempt to rationalize by pointing out statistics from other countries? It means zero!

On a more positive note, the ex CIA guy in this video has a far better grasp:

http://video.msnbc.msn.com/...v/46691956/#46691956
Regards,
Neil
Albuquerque, NM


YucaLandia


Mar 12, 2012, 3:49 PM

Post #3 of 24 (2641 views)

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Re: [chinagringo] Australia Murder Rate for Canadian Tourists higher than Mexico at #5

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The point for me is to document the strange negative bias that the CBC and Canadian bloggers and public comments by Canadians on the internet use when they report Canadian tourist risks in other countries vs. their reporting of actual risks for tourists in Mexico.

A number of past Mexconnect posts have also claimed unusually high murder rates for Mexico versus other travel destinations.

Do we tend to think that Australia has equal or higher tourist murder rates than Mexico?
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Read-on MacDuff
E-visit at http://yucalandia.com

tonyburton


Mar 12, 2012, 5:07 PM

Post #4 of 24 (2614 views)

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Thread title is misleading

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Perhaps a minor point, but while I support the idea that there is some value in making international comparisons, the numbers simply do not match the title you gave this thread.
The Canada rate quoted in the article is 0.268 / 100,000 overnight Cnd visitors.
The Australia rate is quoted as 0.269 / 100,000.
In statistical terms, with or without any error margin being included, the difference is clearly insignificant.
In my view, these two rates are statistically IDENTICAL.

YucaLandia


Mar 12, 2012, 5:21 PM

Post #5 of 24 (2597 views)

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Re: [YucaLandia] Australia Murder Rate for Canadian Tourists higher than Mexico at #5

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In Reply To
The point for me is to document the strange negative bias that the CBC and Canadian bloggers and public comments by Canadians on the internet use when they report Canadian tourist risks in other countries vs. their reporting of actual risks for tourists in Mexico.

A number of past Mexconnect posts have also claimed unusually high murder rates for Mexico versus other travel destinations.

Do we tend to think that Australia has equal or higher tourist murder rates than Mexico?

Good point Tony.

As a professional geographer, before you read the thread, did you think that Australia has equal or higher tourist murder rates than Mexico?
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Read-on MacDuff
E-visit at http://yucalandia.com

chinagringo


Mar 12, 2012, 5:24 PM

Post #6 of 24 (2594 views)

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Re: [YucaLandia] Australia Murder Rate for Canadian Tourists higher than Mexico at #5

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And just how accurate do you figure the numbers they are using for Mexico are?
Regards,
Neil
Albuquerque, NM


YucaLandia


Mar 12, 2012, 5:48 PM

Post #7 of 24 (2582 views)

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Re: [chinagringo] Australia Murder Rate for Canadian Tourists higher than Mexico at #5

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Based on CBC Canada's lurid portrayals and since they regularly issue family member's reports as factual news, Canadian media and the Canadian Govt. closely track every suspected attack on Canadians and every suspected murder of Canadians in Mexico.


The murder numbers reported by the CBC for Mexico are Canadian data, by CBC and the Canadian Department of Foreign Affairs.

You propose that the Canadian media and Canadian Govt intentionally under-reports violence against Canadians.
Why should we think that Canadian media under-report suspected murders and suspected violence on their tourists in Mexico?

Past Canadian media bias has been to over-report suspected harm: e.g. Even when Canadian lab results show clean urine and clean drinks for the urine samples for 4 Canadians and their drinks, the story reported by the Canadian press focuses on the unsubstantiated claims of the Canadians and basically says almost nothing about the fact that roughly 36 different lab tests on the 4 urine samples all came back negative/clean. http://www.metronews.ca/...ples-urine-in-mexico

In this case, we are left with a "who to trust" / "who to believe" issue:
Do you trust the perceptions of 4 tourists doing hours of tequila shooters, then cut-off by the bartender?
or
Do you believe Canadian lab results that there were no drugs, no cannabanoids, no amphetimines, no GHB, no narcotics and no evidence of poisoning based on urine samples and drinks from all 4 complainants?

Do you believe Canadian media and Canadian Govt. figures?
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Read-on MacDuff
E-visit at http://yucalandia.com

(This post was edited by YucaLandia on Mar 12, 2012, 6:13 PM)

norteño

Mar 12, 2012, 5:55 PM

Post #8 of 24 (2577 views)

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Re: [YucaLandia] Australia Murder Rate for Canadian Tourists higher than Mexico at #5

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Until someone comes up with an accurate calculation of the number of man-years spent by Canadians in each of these countries per year these numbers are meaningless.

tonyburton


Mar 12, 2012, 5:57 PM

Post #9 of 24 (2576 views)

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Re: [YucaLandia] Australia Murder Rate for Canadian Tourists higher than Mexico at #5

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I admit I would have needed to think about that ~ for several reasons!
There are too many variables to read too much into the data as presented by CBC, such as are the figures for "murders" really for just murders or for all homicides? [see my piece on Geo-Mexico.com about definitions].
I would also have liked to know the absolute numbers (not rates) for overnight Canadian visitors and for "murders" in each country, to see what the relationship is between them.
As pointed out in the article, there is also a MASSIVE difference in the types of tourist visiting Australia and Mexico, and in the likely nature of the trips.


(This post was edited by tonyburton on Mar 12, 2012, 6:56 PM)

tonyburton


Mar 12, 2012, 5:59 PM

Post #10 of 24 (2570 views)

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Re: [norteño] Australia Murder Rate for Canadian Tourists higher than Mexico at #5

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Although I haven't seen the raw data used by CBC, the article and CBC's use of "overnight Canadians" strongly suggests that they undertook this calculation, and were comparing "murders" to "visitor-nights" (=visitors x average length of stay).

Later edit:
Having now read through some of the dozens of comments, maybe CBC didn't actually work out "visitor nights" as I suggested. Certainly the graph at the end of the article shows rates / 100,000 visitors [rather than / 100,000 visitor-nights]. It's a shame the CBC don't define their terms more clearly!!


(This post was edited by tonyburton on Mar 12, 2012, 6:17 PM)

chinagringo


Mar 12, 2012, 6:04 PM

Post #11 of 24 (2564 views)

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Re: [YucaLandia] Australia Murder Rate for Canadian Tourists higher than Mexico at #5

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Steve:

I don't dispute that both the Canadian and United States media sensationalize their reporting when it comes to Mexico. But the constant use of rationalizations to equate Mexican crime statistics with those in Vancouver, Toronto, Detroit, Houston, Miami, etc is total BS! Every city or every country stands on their own statistic wise and comparisons mean absolutely nothing.

When it comes to Americans or Canadians killed in Mexico, how many do you think might just be in an discovered grave somewhere and are not part of the statistics? Given the number of citizens from both countries that are involved in the drug trade or tourists with unknown plans, my estimate is that the undiscovered deaths probably equal or exceed the number of known deaths each year.
Regards,
Neil
Albuquerque, NM


YucaLandia


Mar 12, 2012, 6:28 PM

Post #12 of 24 (2548 views)

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Re: [norteño] Australia Murder Rate for Canadian Tourists higher than Mexico at #5

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Until someone comes up with an accurate calculation of the number of man-years spent by Canadians in each of these countries per year these numbers are meaningless.

Do you believe that the average lengths of Canadian visitor stays in Australia are somehow longer than Canadian visitors to Mexico? That is the only way that the Mexican data could be skewed lower than the Australian data due to stay-lengths.

For every 1 Canadian that stays in Mexico for 6 months, (25 weeks), to avoid winters and save money, it would take 8 Canadian tourists visiting Australia for 3 weeks to equalize the numbers.

Since many many Canadians come to stay for months in Mexico (giving many more opportunities to supposedly experience violence), and Canadians stay shorter times in Australia, then the Australian numbers would naturally be much lower due to the shorter average stays.

This indicates that correcting the data for length of stay would increase the rates for violence against Canadians in Australia.

==================================================
The official Statistics Canada presented are about Canadian visitors to other countries - not some :

"MASSIVE difference in the types of tourist visiting Australia and Canada,"

Visits to Canada do not seem to be part of the data - so visits to Canada have nothing to do with the results.
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Read-on MacDuff
E-visit at http://yucalandia.com

(This post was edited by YucaLandia on Mar 12, 2012, 6:55 PM)

YucaLandia


Mar 12, 2012, 6:35 PM

Post #13 of 24 (2540 views)

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Re: [chinagringo] Australia Murder Rate for Canadian Tourists higher than Mexico at #5

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In Reply To
Steve:

I don't dispute that both the Canadian and United States media sensationalize their reporting when it comes to Mexico. But the constant use of rationalizations to equate Mexican crime statistics with those in Vancouver, Toronto, Detroit, Houston, Miami, etc is total BS! Every city or every country stands on their own statistic wise and comparisons mean absolutely nothing.

When it comes to Americans or Canadians killed in Mexico, how many do you think might just be in an discovered grave somewhere and are not part of the statistics? Given the number of citizens from both countries that are involved in the drug trade or tourists with unknown plans, my estimate is that the undiscovered deaths probably equal or exceed the number of known deaths each year.

I'll try to explain the Statistics Canada reports one more time.

The data used by the Canadian government and the CBC for this report are CANADIAN accumulations and CANADIAN counts.

I know that there are problems with some Mexican Govt. counts, but Mexican accounting issues have no role in this report.

Why are we muddying the water by suggesting that the Mexican government has somehow affected Canadian counting of reports by their own citizens to their own Canadian government?

There is no: rationalizations to equate Mexican crime statistics with those in Vancouver, Toronto, Detroit, Houston, Miami, etc ---

There is nothing in this report or in my comments that have anything to do with Vancouver, Toronto etc
There are no comparisons between crime rates in Canada or the US with rates in Mexico.

Again, Why muddy the water by making complaints about things that are not present?
-
Read-on MacDuff
E-visit at http://yucalandia.com

(This post was edited by YucaLandia on Mar 12, 2012, 6:40 PM)

chinagringo


Mar 12, 2012, 7:10 PM

Post #14 of 24 (2522 views)

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Re: [YucaLandia] Australia Murder Rate for Canadian Tourists higher than Mexico at #5

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From Wikipedia:
""Lies, damned lies, and statistics" is a phrase describing the persuasive power of numbers, particularly the use of statistics to bolster weak arguments. It is also sometimes colloquially used to doubt statistics used to prove an opponent's point."

When planning a trip to Mexico and determining where we choose to travel, we ignore NOB media, we ignore the travel warnings, we ignore comparison studies with other countries or cities and pay attention to the one thing that means something - actual "on the ground reports" from where we wish to go. The rest is totally meaningless! Seeing a comparison study about the probability of a Canadian having a problem in Mexico versus Australia is BS and the NOB press knows that but they are in the business to sell the news.
Regards,
Neil
Albuquerque, NM


tonyburton


Mar 12, 2012, 7:37 PM

Post #15 of 24 (2512 views)

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Re: [chinagringo] Australia Murder Rate for Canadian Tourists higher than Mexico at #5

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Quote: "When planning a trip to Mexico and determining where we choose to travel, we ignore NOB media, we ignore the travel warnings, we ignore comparison studies with other countries or cities and pay attention to the one thing that means something - actual "on the ground reports" from where we wish to go."

That's fine and that is clearly your choice, based on your opinion. There is absolutely no problem with that.
However, other people are equally entitled to have their own (different) opinion and make their own (different) choice.

YucaLandia


Mar 12, 2012, 8:14 PM

Post #16 of 24 (2493 views)

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Re: [chinagringo] Australia Murder Rate for Canadian Tourists higher than Mexico at #5

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From Wikipedia:
""Lies, damned lies, and statistics" is a phrase describing the persuasive power of numbers, particularly the use of statistics to bolster weak arguments. It is also sometimes colloquially used to doubt statistics used to prove an opponent's point."

When planning a trip to Mexico and determining where we choose to travel, we ignore NOB media, we ignore the travel warnings, we ignore comparison studies with other countries or cities and pay attention to the one thing that means something - actual "on the ground reports" from where we wish to go. The rest is totally meaningless! Seeing a comparison study about the probability of a Canadian having a problem in Mexico versus Australia is BS and the NOB press knows that but they are in the business to sell the news.

Again, I am perplexed by the repeated misrepresentations.

The data presented are simple counts of the numbers of Canadians who have actually been reported injured or murdered by the Canadian Govt. They are not :

... probabilit(ies) of a Canadian having a problem in Mexico versus Australia...

It is yet another red.herring to falsely label actual data rates as probabilities or as statistics.

If I count 100 cars that went past my home last week, and 20 of them are Fords, then it is accurate and precise to report that: 20% of the vehicles that I saw going past my house last week were Fords. Reporting "20% Fords" is neither statistics nor probabilities.

The Canadian Govt. report has nothing to do with probabilities.
This report has nothing to do with visitors to Canada.
This report has nothing to do with how the Mex. Gob. calculates or reports their statistics.
This report has nothing to do with crime statistics from Canada, Vancouver, Detroit, et al
This report has nothing to do with statistically massaged data.
As simple Rates, calculated based on millions of data points, the data should be meaningful.

By spinning the report results with artificial and inapplicable and false interpretations, and false labels, and misdirections, the criticisms are actually the parts of this thread that contain the distortions.

This report describes simple numbers of Canadian visitors to other countries over an 11 year period and the numbers of Canadians reporting assaults and murders to their government. The authors then do a simple division of the number of Canadians murdered over 11 years in each country divided by the total number of Canadian visits to that country during that period. That actual rate of # of murders per visitor is then multiplied by 100,000 to get a rate for 100,000 people-

Simple.

If the critics think it is unreasonable to calculate actual rates, and then to multiply by 100,000 to get figures that apply to cities and countries, then you likely think that all rate calculations are supposedly BS.

e.g. If you divide your weekly pay figure by 40 hours and then multiply by 2200 hours per year, you get your annual salary of $$ per year. Is that rate somehow also BS? By confusing rates with probabilities, it creates a false distorted impression, and it makes a false charge - which does exactly what you accuse me of ~~ creating false impressions by misusing data ~~.

Which approach is actually "meaningless" ? False labeling? Raising inapplicable things that do not exist in the report?

I suspect that the critics have a bias towards what they imagine Australia to be. I note that none of them were willing to report whether they previously believed that Mexico had higher murder rates for Canadian visitors than Australia.

Me? I personally thought that there would be a much lower murder rate for Canadians visiting Australia - so, I was surprised that "that Mexico is #5, just behind Australia for (11 years of) murder rates for Canadian tourists" .

Critics might also notice that I described exactly these 3 items in my first post: " just behind Australia " and "rates" and "Canadian tourists" .
steve
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Read-on MacDuff
E-visit at http://yucalandia.com

(This post was edited by YucaLandia on Mar 12, 2012, 8:51 PM)

YucaLandia


Mar 12, 2012, 8:23 PM

Post #17 of 24 (2486 views)

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Re: [chinagringo] Australia Murder Rate for Canadian Tourists higher than Mexico at #5

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To Summarize:
I think that the RATE results reported by the CANADIAN government on CANADIAN visitors to OTHER countries are quite interesting - and they are worth considering - especially since they are the opposite of my own personal biases.

I further admit that I am a peculiar fellow: I love it when I find evidence that shows that some previous bias I had ... was incorrect. I realize that I am unusual, because when I am shown results or data or facts that are contrary to my beliefs, I happily re-consider my beliefs. I find life easier when I adjust my beliefs and perceptions and expectations to better fit reality.

Since roughly 1.5 million Canadians visit Mexico every year, according to both Canadian and Mexican figures, then the data sets are sufficiently large for the calculated rates to actually be meaningful.
steve
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Read-on MacDuff
E-visit at http://yucalandia.com

(This post was edited by YucaLandia on Mar 12, 2012, 9:53 PM)

Reefhound


Mar 13, 2012, 7:23 AM

Post #18 of 24 (2428 views)

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Re: [YucaLandia] Australia Murder Rate for Canadian Tourists higher than Mexico at #5

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In Reply To
Since roughly 1.5 million Canadians visit Mexico every year, according to both Canadian and Mexican figures, then the data sets are sufficiently large for the calculated rates to actually be meaningful.
steve

How many visit Australia? I would think the media is going to play to the widest audience so could that be a reason they hype the risk of Mexico and ignore Australia?

YucaLandia


Mar 13, 2012, 10:23 AM

Post #19 of 24 (2398 views)

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Re: [Reefhound] Australia Murder Rate for Canadian Tourists higher than Mexico at #5

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Wow, I really like the insight about "playing to the widest audience".
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Read-on MacDuff
E-visit at http://yucalandia.com

Axixic


Mar 13, 2012, 11:15 AM

Post #20 of 24 (2384 views)

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Re: [Reefhound] Australia Murder Rate for Canadian Tourists higher than Mexico at #5

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First, Australia has more balconies for Canadians to fall off of and die, so the statistics aren't fair. It's just one more unfair slam at Mexico being second rate.

The number of Canadian deaths while traveling is reported as X number per 100,000. If it's 2000 people in Mexico and 1500 in Australia, it's still per 100,000.

As far as Canada not knowing the number of Canadian deaths in Mexico, I bet Canada knows exactly how many Canadians are reported dead in Mexico.

Canadians, like all us other foreigners, almost 100% of the time die by accidents or natural causes. It's very rare for foreigners to be involved in criminal violence.

YucaLandia


Mar 13, 2012, 1:00 PM

Post #21 of 24 (2360 views)

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Re: [Axixic] Australia Murder Rate for Canadian Tourists higher than Mexico at #5

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A synopsis to be admired!

As I read the CBC article the first time, a series of fascinating set of questions came up for me - and I was hoping that this thread could lift the lid for just a little peek into other people's processes.... by using the Canadian Dept. of Foreign Affairs study as an introduction into the first simple question I posed in the original post - Are the Canadian study results a surprise?

What did each of us previously think or imagine about the relative murder rates for tourists in Australia vs Mexico?
- and is that a surprise?

continuing...
Does the possibility that Australia might have a higher murder rate for tourists - subsequently change our thinking?

Do we trust Canadian press reporting - or do we & should we instead suspect bias?
I suspect bias by them in some articles. AND I freely acknowledge that I am biased too.

Do we trust Canadian Govt. reporting of statistics and rates?
or US govt or Mex Gob reports ?
and is there a resulting bias in our thinking and how we react to the reports?
... the backlash above seems to confirm some previous biases and emotional reactions


Do our beliefs about Mexico, or beliefs about Mexico-relative-to-other-countries, unrelentingly affect our thinking and reactions?

Do our beliefs about Mexico, or beliefs about Mexico-relative-to-other-countries, unrelentingly affect our planning?

*****
These questions bobbed up while reading the CBC article, and I still think they are worth exploring.
steve
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Read-on MacDuff
E-visit at http://yucalandia.com

Reefhound


Mar 13, 2012, 1:15 PM

Post #22 of 24 (2353 views)

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Re: [YucaLandia] Australia Murder Rate for Canadian Tourists higher than Mexico at #5

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It's probably not wise to totally trust in government stats but if you throw them out altogether what do you have to go on?

Looks like Mexico and Australia are about equal in risk for murder (Mexico a bit higher in assault) but interesting that both are about 6 times higher than the uber dangerous United States.

YucaLandia


Mar 13, 2012, 7:36 PM

Post #23 of 24 (2314 views)

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Re: [Reefhound] Australia Murder Rate for Canadian Tourists higher than Mexico at #5

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I suspect that US thugs respect those embroidered red maple leaf patches. Plus, the Canadians have punted the US military forces back south of the border in several wars - and Americans who've ever seen a hockey game know that every self-respecting Canadian knows how to pull the shirt over your head and start beating you...

http://www.youtube.com/...re=player_detailpage

We also suspect that Canadians carry concealed hockey sticks.
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Read-on MacDuff
E-visit at http://yucalandia.com

CanuckBob


Mar 13, 2012, 8:34 PM

Post #24 of 24 (2298 views)

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Re: [YucaLandia] Australia Murder Rate for Canadian Tourists higher than Mexico at #5

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Jajajaja...................you got that right!!!!

Bob
Inside Lakeside
http://www.insidelakeside.com
 
 
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