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surebought

Sep 21, 2011, 8:06 AM

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What happens if the PRI wins in 2012?

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I first should disclose that I have been through three serous devaluations: 1984 -1988 - 1994. As you can see these devaluations corresponded with Mexico's Presidential Elections. In 2000 the PAN party with Fox won the Presidency and with that victory came real Peso Stability. This may be the result of the PRI, before they lost, installing Ortiz in the position of the equivalent of Mexico's Federal Reserve Chairman. I think he was a very good choice for this job and he still holds it today. Except for a minor devaluation in Sept 08, which did not lead to inflation, the Peso has been relatively stable ever since. Are we heading back into the good old days if there is a PRI victory in 2012? Will the Cartels disappear back into the undercurrent and become a non issue? The problem with the PRI was that there is so many factions. But I think for the interest of this post they can be divided into two main factions. The Technocrats which tend to be College educated and entirely capable and the imbeciles which tend to be corrupt and stupid. The corrupt and stupid get their power from the public employee's Unions like the Seguro Social and the Commision Federal de Electricidad. The Technocrats are all about business. The imbecile's hero was the late Carlos Hank Gonzales. In Mexico, the imbeciles are sometimes refereed to as Dinosaurs. I hope the PRI will run their best and brightest in 2012. So far no central figure has emerged as a possible candidate. It will be someone that nobody has heard of yet. Some bounce around the current Governor of the State of Mexico. But really - does it matter that much? You could change in one day, all the Mayors, Governors, Senators, Congressmen, and the President and Mexico will still have all the same problems. There has been a lot of change since I have been in Mexico, but I don't think this change has taken place because of one Politician or another.

bournemouth

Sep 21, 2011, 8:48 AM

Post #2 of 9 (2531 views)

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Re: [surebought] What happens if the PRI wins in 2012?

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There is some difference in that the three devaluations you cite occurred when the peso was trading at a fixed rate. Now it, ostensibly, floats. We lived through those too and luckily had very little money in pesos. But I can remember people losing their retirements and having to return to the US to work again after the first one.

dongringo_catemaco

Sep 21, 2011, 1:48 PM

Post #3 of 9 (2471 views)

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Re: [bournemouth] What happens if the PRI wins in 2012?

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Believe it or not.
Within a few weeks days of the ascendancy of a new Mexican president, all the federal senators and all the federal deputies, plus an estimated half of Mexico's mayors change office. Great way to run a country.

The PRI (dinosaurs with a blood transfusion) are expected to win. The effect can`t be calculated until the strength of the losing parties is known. I foresee no changes for gringos, but pity the rest of Mexico.
Visit Catemaco News

(This post was edited by dongringo_catemaco on Sep 21, 2011, 1:50 PM)

cookj5

Sep 21, 2011, 2:06 PM

Post #4 of 9 (2460 views)

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Re: [surebought] What happens if the PRI wins in 2012?

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It would appear that the reason that the PRI is the most likely winner in 2012 is that the Mexican public widely perceives the PAN as the corrupt tool of the business elite with little interest in the problems of common people. Also, the perception that Calderon's war against the cartels has been a bloody failure. It may (or may not) be that the PRI is simply the same old dinosaurs in spiffed up lizard suits. It could also be that they have changed with the times and gotten new leadership. Hard to say, but in any case they will probably be the next ruling party.

dongringo_catemaco

Sep 21, 2011, 2:52 PM

Post #5 of 9 (2447 views)

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Re: [cookj5] What happens if the PRI wins in 2012?

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"corrupt tool of the business elite"
I like that quote. Where did you get it?

http://www.google.com/search?gcx=w&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8&q=%22corrupt+tool+of+the+business+elite%22
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YucaLandia

Sep 21, 2011, 5:45 PM

Post #6 of 9 (2423 views)

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Re: [surebought] What happens if the PRI wins in 2012?

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It seems like the key factors that will affect the Mexican economy, MXN Peso exchange rates, Mexican oil production & oil revenues, and the quality of life here, will be determined by the PRI's potential changes in :

Central bank policies and personnel,
Pemex operations,
How Pemex revenues are used, and
The effects of potentially increasing (returning to) corruption that is embedded at many levels of govt. & society.

These four factors seem to be the axles that will determine how the broad trends play out, but I don't know enough about the PRI to get a sense of how they will change things. When the PRI wins elections at the State and Local levels by passing out truck-loads of cement blocks to 10,000's of poor families in Yucatan, and passing out 10,000's of free tinacos in the State of Mexico, etc, etc, etc, then how can we expect things to not change?

On the other hand, the previous pre-PAN PRI leaders in Yucatan brought in 5 major factories (from international deals) using their traditional strategies, which created a lot of jobs, while the PAN period had no similar "accomplishments".

Background info on oil and peso valuations, see another Mexconnect thread: http://www.mexconnect.com/...psed;page=last;#last which describes some of the recent effects of oil prices and oil revenues on MXN Peso values.
steve
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Read-on MacDuff
E-visit at http://yucalandia.com

(This post was edited by YucaLandia on Sep 21, 2011, 5:46 PM)

dongringo_catemaco

Sep 21, 2011, 10:06 PM

Post #7 of 9 (2377 views)

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Re: [YucaLandia] What happens if the PRI wins in 2012?

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Yuck - if you want to keep informed about PEMEX , contact George Baker
at info@energia.com to subscribe to his newsletter.
Else you'll never know what you are talking about.
Visit Catemaco News

richmx2

Sep 22, 2011, 1:36 AM

Post #8 of 9 (2364 views)

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Re: [surebought] What happens if the PRI wins in 2012?

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Well, when you use words like "imbeciles" in reference to one faction in one political party you're spinning your argument... even more than I usually do :-)

At any rate, I don't know if it's really possible to make electoral predictions. Multi-party elections have only been a reality for the past three presidential cycles, and that is not enough to give good predictive data. With the assassination of Colosio in 1994, that election was hardly "regular" and 2000 election may have been less a PAN victory than a vote against the PRI candidates and party structure (if you recall, Vicente Fox was elected on a coalition ticket, making an appeal to the left as a "useful vote" against the PRI). The 2006 PAN candidate might not have been the actual winner — and the "drug war" that seems to have been set off as a way of conferring legitimacy on his tenure has gone extremely badly. The possible 2006 winner has been "locked out" of mainstream media, but has been active "under the radar" in organizing, and may or may not have an effect on the outcome in 2012. There is usually "buyer's remorse" in the last two years of any presidential cycle, although with the backlash against the "drug war", coupled with lingering doubts about Calderón's election, AND the economic situation... the assumption that PRI is going to make a strong comeback isn't wrong... just that the election is still quite a ways off, we don't know the candidates yet, and anything can happen.

http://mexfiles.net
http://voiceofmexico.com
http://editorialmazatlan.com

cbviajero

Sep 22, 2011, 8:07 AM

Post #9 of 9 (2313 views)

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Re: [surebought] What happens if the PRI wins in 2012?

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Peña Nieto the probable winner of the next election isCarlos Salinas de Gotari's godson,what does that tell you?If I had a vote it would be for Marcelo Ebrard,he's done a pretty good job in Mexico City IMO.
Chris

(This post was edited by cbviajero on Sep 22, 2011, 10:23 AM)