Sep 1, 2011, 10:52 AM
Post #13 of 37
"Mexico City – Violent crime has become a problem of national security in Mexico, where half of the territory is outside of state control and "we're in the hands of the narcos," an intelligence expert and author of a new book on Mexico's public safety woes, said. "
Re: [Yacatecuhtli] Expert: Drug gangs control half of Mexico
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Do the reader's of this quote have any sense of how the "problem of national security in Mexico" compares to US sources of death?
In terms of relative risks: Mexico's drug war related deaths have been reported at 30,000 for the past 5 years. For Mexico's population of 125 million, this equates to 73,000 deaths for the US population of 305 million. How do these Drug War related deaths compare to typical avoidable deaths in the US?
Reported US driving accidents kill between 31,000 and 38,000 people a year. These 180,000 US deaths over 5 years, translate to 74,000 comparable US highway deaths for 125 million Mexicans vs the 30,000 Mexican drug war deaths during the period of Calderon's war with the Narco-Trafficantes - so, you are roughly 2.5X more likely to be killed while on the US roads vs. being killed in the Mexican Drug war while living in Mexico. (according to official US DOT figures and assuming roughly equal travel distances).
Research studies report that US Physician and Hospital errors unnecessarily kill 125,000 Americans per year. This translates to 625,00 unnecessary US deaths during the 5 year Drug War. If you ratio the Physician and Hospital death rate down to Mexico's population, you get 256,000 unnecessary US deaths vs 30,000 Mexican drug war deaths, or an 8.6X higher likelyhood of being killed by US Physician and Hospital error vs dying due to the drug war while living in Mexico.
The US homicide rate (according to CDC) is 18,361 per year, which translates to 92,000 US homicide deaths during the drug war, which ratios down to 38,000 homicide deaths for Mexico's population vs. only 30,000 actual drug war homicides in Mexico, which means you are 1.25X more likely to be murdered in the USA than from living in Mexico, due to the war on drugs...
So, if you're actually concerned about the real risks of traveling or living in Mexico, rational people would also want to stay off US roads, stay out of US doctors offices and hospitals, and not be in US cities. 5 years of data indicate that the US is a more risky place to live, when compared to the risks around Mexico's Drug War.
In case Canadians are feeling that travel to Mexico is unnecessarily risky:
Roughly 3,000 Canadians are killed in driving accidents per year, which translates to 15,000 Canadians killed during Mexico's drug war. Canada has 33.8 million people, which ratios the driving Canadian deaths up to 55,500 Canadian driving deaths vs. the 30,000 killed in Mexico's drug war per 125 million of population.
By ratio-ing Canada's traffic deaths up to match Mexico's population, shows 1.85X higher death rates from Canadian driving vs. deaths in Mexico's drug war.
So, the deaths in Mexico's drug war are shocking, but they are still less than common risks that Canadians and US citizens accept on a daily basis. It also seems rational to not want to hang around in New Orleans, Juarez, Detroit, Monterrey, New York City, Tijuana, Washington DC, or Nuevo Laredo, unless you happen to live there.
Hopefully, this helps put the real average risks into perspective.
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(This post was edited by YucaLandia on Sep 1, 2011, 12:00 PM)