Sep 1, 2011, 10:19 AM
Post #2 of 16
"Go ahead, talk me out of this recent insanity of mine!"
I don't know the acronyms. If possible, I would choose a route that does not stop in Monterrey.
In terms of relative risks Drug war related deaths have been reported at 30,000 for the past 5 years. For Mexico's population of 125 million, this equates to 73,000 deaths for the US population of 305 million. How do the Drug War related deaths compare to typical avoidable deaths in the US?
Reported US driving accidents kill between 31,000 and 38,000 people a year. These 180,000 US deaths translates to 73,000 US highway deaths for 125 million Mexicans vs the 30,000 Mexican drug war deaths during the period of Calderon's war with the Narco-Trafficantes - so, you are roughly 2.4X more likely to be killed on the US roads during your trip. (according to official US DOT figures and assuming roughly equal travel distances).
Research studies report that US Physician and Hospital errors unnecessarily kill 125,000 Americans per year. This translates to 625,00 unnecessary US deaths during the 5 year Drug War. If you ratio the Physician and Hospital death rate down to Mexico's population, you get 256,000 unnecessary US deaths vs 30,000 Mexican drug war deaths, or an 8.6X higher likelyhood of being killed by US Physician and Hospital error vs living in Mexico.
The US homicide rate (according to CDC) is 18,361 per year, which translates to 92,000 US homicide deaths during the drug war, which ratios down to 38,000 homicide deaths for Mexico's population vs. only 30,000 actual drug war homicides in Mexico, which means you are 1.25X more likely to be murdered in the USA than in Mexico's war on drugs...
So, if you're actually concerned about the real risks of traveling in Mexico, rational people would also want to stay off US roads, stay out of US doctors offices, and not be in US cities. 5 years of data indicate that the US is a more risky place to live, when compared to the issues and risks around Mexico's Drug War.
It seems rational to not want to hang around in New Orleans, Juarez, Detroit, Monterrey, New York City, Tijuana, Washington DC, or Nuevo Laredo, unless you happen to live there.
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