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johninajijic

Jun 17, 2011, 2:56 PM

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MEXICO Is Statistically Safer Than The US

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A friend sent this to me.

Mexico is statistically much safer than the United States.
So why is the U.S. State Dept. sending out Travel Alerts, calling Mexico "A Failed State", and saying that ALL parts of the country (including popular tourist resorts like Puerto Vallarta and Cancun) are now unsafe for travel ? I will answer this: Because the US is so messed up with their economy, they want to keep US citizens home to spend $$$ in the US.

There’s been a lot of news coverage about violence in Mexico. But very little of it notes that Mexico is a HUGE country with thirty-one states (+ the Distrito Federal). They also fail to mention that most of that violence is drug traffic-related, or that you could count the number of tourists who are affected by it on one hand.

Did you know that, according to the FBI, “An estimated 15,241 persons were murdered in the U.S. in 2009″ ? 111 U.S. citizens were killed in Mexico last year, and almost all of them were involved in illicit drug trafficking, gun-running, or smuggling people across the border to/from the U.S.

Imagine....111 people out of the nearly 8 million visitors (about 1 million of whom make Mexico their full-time home).

You know who else had 111 murders in one year? Well, Boston for starters. Then there was Las Vegas. And Orlando. And Indianapolis. Is the State Dept. advising tourists to stay away from those places? Meanwhile, nearly 1,000 U.S. citizens died in Puerto Rico, but did anybody raise a red flag about that ?

Then there’s the U.S. proper, which the State Department can't issue a Travel Warning on, because it’s, well, not a foreign country. But just look at the numbers....

How’s your own city doing when compared to Mexico ? Here are the annual numbers of MURDERS, given by MSA (or Metropolitan Statistical Area)

NOTE FROM PERRY: I HAVE ADDED ANOTHER COLUMN FROM A FBI WEBSITE SHOWING THE 2009 NUMBER OF ANNUAL MURDERS PER 100,000 POPULATION PER YEAR:

--MURDERS/YEAR----MURDERS/100,000 POPULATION

Atlanta - 325 MSA-----------------34.9

Baltimore – 298 MSA
Boston – 111 MSA
Dallas/Ft. Worth – 310 MSA-----DALLAS 15..8
-------------------------------------------FORT WORTH 5.8
Detroit – 447 MSA-------------------41.8
Houston – 462 MSA-----------------12.5
Indianapolis – 111 MSA
Jacksonville, FL – 120 MSA
Kansas City – 163 MSA
Las Vegas – 133 MSA
Los Angeles – 68 MSA---------------17.1
Miami-Boca Raton - 377 MSA
New Orleans – 252 MSA-------------53.1
New York City – 778 MSA-------------7.3
Orlando – 111 MSA
Philadelphia – 436 MSA
Phoenix – 302 MSA
San Francisco – 392 MSA
St. Louis – 210 MSA
Washington, DC – 325 MSA----------46.3

Chicago---------------------------------------22..8

San Antonio-------------------------------------8.3

Guadalajara (5,000,000 population)----5.0

To put things in perspective, consider that tthe murder rate in Mexico's Yucatan State is 2 per 100,000. That’s about the same as Fond du Lac, Wisconsin. Or Evansville, Indiana.

Mexico City’s murder rate is 8 per 100,000, despite being the second-largest city on the planet. That’s on par with Albuquerque.

And how often do we feel scared in Albuquerque....?!?!?!

(This post was edited by johninajijic on Jun 17, 2011, 3:02 PM)

chinagringo

Jun 17, 2011, 3:06 PM

Post #2 of 28 (3255 views)

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Re: [johninajijic] MEXICO Is Statistically Safer Than The US

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BS! When someone plays with statistics to prove a point and doesn't provide links, it is immediately suspect and heads for the trash bin!

Figures don't lie, but liars figure. - Samuel Clemens (alias Mark Twain)
Regards,
Neil
Albuquerque, NM

joaquinx

Jun 17, 2011, 4:42 PM

Post #3 of 28 (3239 views)

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Re: [chinagringo] MEXICO Is Statistically Safer Than The US

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In Reply To

BS! When someone plays with statistics to prove a point and doesn't provide links, it is immediately suspect and heads for the trash bin!

You just hit the statistical nail on the head.
_______
My desire to be well-informed is currently at odds with my desire to remain sane.

Casa

Jun 17, 2011, 6:46 PM

Post #4 of 28 (3210 views)

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Re: [johninajijic] MEXICO Is Statistically Safer Than The US

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RE:
Mexico is statistically much safer than the United States.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Interesting that the OECD paints a very different picture.

Mexico has the lowest overall safety ranking in all of the OECD, with both the highest assult rate and the highest homicide rate in the OECD.

Mexico also ranks last in the area of education but that would be a topic for a different thread or maybe not since…. “Education plays a key role in providing individuals with the knowledge, skills and competences needed to participate effectively in society and in the economy. In addition, education may improve people’s lives in such social areas as health, civic participation, political interest and happiness. Studies show that educated individuals live longer lives, participate more actively in politics and in the community where they live, commit fewer crimes and rely less on social assistance.”

But we are talking about safety ......
Key Findings: Safety
Personal security is a core element for the well-being of individuals, and largely reflects the risks of people being physically assaulted or falling victim to other types of crime. Across the OECD, victimisation rates for conventional crime (theft, robbery, assault) have declined in the new millennium. In Mexico, 15% of people reported falling victim to assault over the previous 12 months, much higher than the OECD average of 4% and the highest rate in the OECD. 34% of people feel unsafe on the street after dark, higher than the OECD average of 26%.

The homicide rate (the number of murders per 100,000 inhabitants) is a more reliable measure of a country’s safety level because, unlike other crimes, murders are usually always reported to the police. According to the latest OECD data, Mexico’s homicide rate has increased from 7 in 2002 to 11.6, much higher than the OECD average and the highest in the OECD.

(Emphasis added is theirs not mine)

Hmm… data sent “from a friend” or a study done by an international organisation with 50 years of experience and whose mission is to to promote policies that will improve the economic and social well-being of people around the world? Not a hard call IMHO. …….

The OECD’s core values

Objective: Our analyses and recommendations are independent and evidence-based.
Open: We encourage debate and a shared understanding of critical global issues.
Bold: We dare to challenge conventional wisdom starting with our own.
Pioneering: We identify and address emerging and long term challenges.
Ethical: Our credibility is built on trust, integrity and transparency.

PS maybe the mod could move this to General instead of Lake Chapala Region

johninajijic

Jun 17, 2011, 7:06 PM

Post #5 of 28 (3208 views)

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Re: [johninajijic] MEXICO Is Statistically Safer Than The US

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The poster needs to give a link to the OECD to back up his info.

chinagringo

Jun 17, 2011, 7:10 PM

Post #6 of 28 (3207 views)

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Re: [johninajijic] MEXICO Is Statistically Safer Than The US

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Why should the poster provide a link when you provided none?

Besides, what do the numbers in Mexico mean in comparison to numbers NOB?
Regards,
Neil
Albuquerque, NM

Casa

Jun 17, 2011, 7:33 PM

Post #7 of 28 (3205 views)

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Re: [johninajijic] MEXICO Is Statistically Safer Than The US

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RE:
The poster needs to give a link to the OECD to back up his info.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

LOL all the hyperlinks are there and should work when one clicks on the quoted text..... (Did you try ?)
If one of the links is not working please let me know and I will fix it.

(This post was edited by Casa on Jun 17, 2011, 7:34 PM)

chinagringo

Jun 17, 2011, 7:38 PM

Post #8 of 28 (3198 views)

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Re: [Casa] MEXICO Is Statistically Safer Than The US

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When John says that he received this info from a friend, it immediately becomes suspect based upon his previous track record. Besides, who knows whether the "friend" knows WTF they are talking about?
Regards,
Neil
Albuquerque, NM

johninajijic

Jun 17, 2011, 8:35 PM

Post #9 of 28 (3185 views)

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Re: [Casa] MEXICO Is Statistically Safer Than The US

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UNITED STATES from OECD website - In the United States, 2% of people reported falling victim to assault over the previous 12 months, lower than the OECD average of 4%. 19% of people feel unsafe on the street after dark, also lower than the OECD average of 26%.

According to the latest OECD data, the United States’ homicide rate is 5.2, higher than the OECD average and one of the highest in the OECD.

(This post was edited by johninajijic on Jun 17, 2011, 8:37 PM)

norteño

Jun 17, 2011, 8:53 PM

Post #10 of 28 (3182 views)

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Re: [johninajijic] MEXICO Is Statistically Safer Than The US

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How’s your own city doing when compared to Mexico ? Here are the annual numbers of MURDERS, given by MSA (or Metropolitan Statistical Area)

NOTE FROM PERRY: I HAVE ADDED ANOTHER COLUMN FROM A FBI WEBSITE SHOWING THE 2009 NUMBER OF ANNUAL MURDERS PER 100,000 POPULATION PER YEAR:

--MURDERS/YEAR----MURDERS/100,000 POPULATION

Atlanta - 325 MSA-----------------34.9 --- 5.9

Baltimore – 298 MSA
Boston – 111 MSA
Dallas/Ft. Worth – 310 MSA-----DALLAS 15..8 --- 5.4
-------------------------------------------FORT WORTH 5.8 --- 3.5
Detroit – 447 MSA-------------------41.8 --- 10.1
Houston – 462 MSA-----------------12.5 --- 7.9
Indianapolis – 111 MSA
Jacksonville, FL – 120 MSA
Kansas City – 163 MSA
Las Vegas – 133 MSA
Los Angeles – 68 MSA---------------17.1 --- 6.1
Miami-Boca Raton - 377 MSA
New Orleans – 252 MSA-------------53.1--- 21.4
New York City – 778 MSA-------------7.3 --- 4.1
Orlando – 111 MSA ---
Philadelphia – 436 MSA ---
Phoenix – 302 MSA ---
San Francisco – 392 MSA ---
St. Louis – 210 MSA ---
Washington, DC – 325 MSA----------46.3 --- 6.3

Chicago---------------------------------------22..8

San Antonio-------------------------------------8.3 --- 6.3

Guadalajara (5,000,000 population)----5.0

To put things in perspective, consider that tthe murder rate in Mexico's Yucatan State is 2 per 100,000. That’s about the same as Fond du Lac, Wisconsin. Or Evansville, Indiana.

Mexico City’s murder rate is 8 per 100,000, despite being the second-largest city on the planet. That’s on par with Albuquerque.

And how often do we feel scared in Albuquerque....?!?!?!

The numbers I have added above are the true number of murders per 100,000 in 2009 for the Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs) listed according to the FBI at this link, which also gives the murder rates for all other MSAs in that year:

http://www2.fbi.gov/ucr/cius2009/data/table_06.html

The person who wrote the text in the original post used the old tired trick of claiming that the murder rate in the central city of the MSA, which is always higher than for the metro area as a whole and whose population is only a small fraction of the total, was the rate for the entire MSA.

As for the Guadalajara metro area and its murder rate, the population of the city of Guadalajara and the seven other municipios that make up metro Guadalajara as defined by the federal government was 4,328,584 in 2009, again according to the Mexican federal government.

That would mean that a rate of 5/100,000 would be about 225 murders per year. If you believe that I challenge you to keep track just of the murders in the metropolitan area that are reported in the on-line Guadalajara newspapers over an extended period. I believe an average of two per day is a conservative estimate, and anyone knows that not all murders known to police even make the news.

There are no reliable official crime figures in Mexico, and the only way to get any idea of the true situation is from the news, but this is complicated by the fact that cartel violence is not even reported in large areas of the country.

norteño

Jun 17, 2011, 9:11 PM

Post #11 of 28 (3177 views)

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Re: [norteño] MEXICO Is Statistically Safer Than The US

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Upon reviewing the O. P. I see that many of its figures are bogus even for the central cities. The rates for the cities of Washington and Los Angeles, for instance, were less than half what is shown and the rate for Atlanta not much more than a third.

(This post was edited by norteño on Jun 17, 2011, 9:20 PM)

Casa

Jun 17, 2011, 10:23 PM

Post #12 of 28 (3156 views)

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Re: [johninajijic] MEXICO Is Statistically Safer Than The US

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---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RE: UNITED STATES from OECD website - In the United States, 2% of people reported falling victim to assault over the previous 12 months, lower than the OECD average of 4%. 19% of people feel unsafe on the street after dark, also lower than the OECD average of 26%.

According to the latest OECD data, the United States’ homicide rate is 5.2, higher than the OECD average and one of the highest in the OECD.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

I see you were able to click on the links and find the information. Perhaps you could share it with your friend so that they do not continue to misspeak, because as you have seen according to the OECD Mexico is NOT safer that the USA (or Canada for that matter). Mexico has the worst safety rating in the OECD for both Homicide 11.6% and Assault 15% and 34% feeling unsafe after dark……

whynotwrite

Jun 18, 2011, 8:19 AM

Post #13 of 28 (3079 views)

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Re: [johninajijic] MEXICO Is Statistically Safer Than The US

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Sorry John, This is the wrong forum (if there is such a forum) to try and tell people that Mexico is safer and better for the average person. 90% of the people who respond to any posting will have a negitive view of anything. How many positive posting have you seen here? "I can´t buy this or that". "I can not bring 150 pounds of pet food", " I got a fine", .... it goes on and on.
I know without a doubt that it is safer here in Mexico for the average person, you can buy nearly everything (at a cost) here that you can buy NOB, That I can order my pet food from a vet and get what I want (for a price). Do not cross here or there or you will die a painful death, the Zetas will get you no matter what!
Wrong place to post something positive about Mexico, sorry.

chinagringo

Jun 18, 2011, 10:02 AM

Post #14 of 28 (3043 views)

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Re: [whynotwrite] MEXICO Is Statistically Safer Than The US

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whynotwrite:

I don't think this is about posting a positive article about Mexico and getting slammed but rather about posting a pathetic and inaccurate piece.

There is a real irony when John chooses to post with a statement as follows: "And how often do we feel scared in Albuquerque....?!?!?!" As a resident of Albuquerque, I have received numerous slams by John for our choice of living here. Never bothered me as Albuquerque has more than it's share of problems! Just like the wisdom of not driving at night, there are parts of this city where I wouldn't drive at night and some areas where I choose not to drive during the day.

While Mexico has it's share of problems, there are so many positives to be experienced that we choose not to eliminate the Country as a place to travel. It is mostly a matter of revising past habits and being a bit more selective about where we go. Two months from today, we will begin a two week driving trip covering about 1000 miles in a loop out of Guadalajara through the Central Highlands. If there weren't positives to be realized and enjoyed, we certainly wouldn't be making the time and monetary commitment!
Regards,
Neil
Albuquerque, NM

richmx2

Jun 18, 2011, 10:55 AM

Post #15 of 28 (3026 views)

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Re: [chinagringo] MEXICO Is Statistically Safer Than The US

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The number of dead U.S. citizens isn't all that meaningful... tourism is a somewhat dangerous past-time (people do stupid things, or are out of their element which can be stressful enough to kill off a few people). Even if you look just at homicides, they are usually "normal" ones -- domestic or business disputes. The statistic we'd need for any meaningful comparison would be the number of foreign victims of homicide per ten thousand foreign residents and/or visitors in other countries before we made assumptions about the relative danger of travel in Mexico, or foreign residency.

Everyone knows there are lies, damned lies and statistics, but what it comes down to is perception. Do I FEEL safer in Mexico than in the U.S.? Damned straight! Are murders in Mexico random — is one likely to get shot at a convenience store, or supermarket or school in Mexico? No. Are foreign visitors likely to be victims of random violence here? Very, very unlikely. Anyway, I didn't move here to be safe... I moved here to live my life.

http://mexfiles.net
http://voiceofmexico.com
http://editorialmazatlan.com

Gringal

Jun 18, 2011, 11:46 AM

Post #16 of 28 (3013 views)

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Re: [richmx2] MEXICO Is Statistically Safer Than The US

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"Anyway, I didn't move here to be safe... I moved here to live my life." You betcha.

Having lived in large and small cities as well as in the country NOB, I learned to use the "sixth sense" in choosing where to go and where to NOT go, day or night. Especially at night. Before moving to MX, I lived in a nice college town with one of those pedestrian downtowns.....trees, benches and all that. During the day, it was a delightful place to walk, browse the stores and have a coffee al fresco. After darkness fell, the creeps crept out and there was drug dealing, knife fights, drunk and stoned fools..... and all the stuff ordinary citizens don't want to be involved in. It would have been interesting to know the "statistics" of how much chaos happened after nightfall as opposed to daytime.

If you use your brain, odds are better that you won't wind up as a negative statistic....anywhere.

RickS

Jun 18, 2011, 12:36 PM

Post #17 of 28 (2994 views)

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Re: [Gringal] MEXICO Is Statistically Safer Than The US

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Well, I wasn't going to get into this 'safe where I live' discussion, but.....

I guess that I just live in a NOB mecca (I do!). Small college city of 140,000 in Colorado. I would NOT hesitate to walk downtown day or night with my grandson in tow. That's also true of about everywhere else around here that I can think of including Denver. (Yes, of course there are neighborhoods in Denver where I would not knowingly walk in the wee hours of the night, but otherwise I would and do.)

I travel around quite a bit up here (mostly in the West) and I just haven't run into those areas where I start wondering if my life or property is in danger. And no, I don't wear rose colored glasses....

Having said that, I would also say that in my many travels in Mexico over the last 15 years I also have the same opinion.... I have always felt safe. Been in some large cities and in the boonies a lot. Out at night also (but not after 11pm or so and never in an area that I probably should not be in to begin with!). I just don't feel like my life is in peril. I have had personal belongings stolen in a break-in and that wasn't pleasant, but I also had my bike stolen from my house in a Denver suburb in broad daylight several years ago too.

This last Spring I did but my visit to Mexico a little short. My plans were to travel in Oaxaca and Veracruz where I have not been before, but when the time came decided to not this year. This decision was mostly because (older) relatives NOB were having a fit that we might be killed or worse, and 2) I would 'have' to leave Mexico out through the state of Tamaulipas, something that I was not willing to do based on widespread violence in that state. Too many black beans in that jar for me at the time!

Altahabana

Jun 18, 2011, 5:32 PM

Post #18 of 28 (2942 views)

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Re: [whynotwrite] MEXICO Is Statistically Safer Than The US

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There is negative international media coverage--which is what provokes these safer than the US threads--because several areas of the country are in the midst of a bloody and increasingly barbaric civil insurgency. That is what prompts the concerns over safety/security, not muggers, burglars or traditional sociopaths. Anyone who thinks the things that are happening in 12 or so Mexican states are even remotely comparable to any situation anywhere in the US doesn't have a good hold on reality or much understanding about contemporary events in Mexico.

(This post was edited by Altahabana on Jun 18, 2011, 5:41 PM)

esperanza

Jun 18, 2011, 5:37 PM

Post #19 of 28 (2938 views)

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Re: [Altahabana] MEXICO Is Statistically Safer Than The US

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Amen, brother.

http://www.mexicocooks.typepad.com

Vichil

Jun 18, 2011, 6:40 PM

Post #20 of 28 (2914 views)

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Re: [Altahabana] MEXICO Is Statistically Safer Than The US

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You got that one right. Some people have no clue.

whynotwrite

Jun 19, 2011, 5:23 AM

Post #21 of 28 (2871 views)

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Re: [Altahabana] MEXICO Is Statistically Safer Than The US

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"bloody and increasingly barbaric civil insurgency"
A wordsmith if I ever read one. You must write for boarderline beat.

Altahabana

Jun 19, 2011, 7:06 AM

Post #22 of 28 (2849 views)

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Re: [whynotwrite] MEXICO Is Statistically Safer Than The US

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And your response answers the question your user name asks.

arbon

Jun 19, 2011, 8:02 AM

Post #23 of 28 (2826 views)

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Re: [Altahabana] MEXICO Is Statistically Safer Than The US

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The Op just spent a week in May on vacation in Southern California, looking at property to buy.

I think he has obtained the info he was looking for, from this thread.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

norteño

Jun 19, 2011, 8:33 AM

Post #24 of 28 (2815 views)

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Re: [whynotwrite] MEXICO Is Statistically Safer Than The US

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In Reply To

"bloody and increasingly barbaric civil insurgency"
A wordsmith if I ever read one. You must write for boarderline beat.

How else would you describe a situation where what is reported at the link below could happen (the day before yesterday), with minimal note being taken at the national level?

http://revistaemet.net/...nt=1&id=2105[/u]

Eleven presumed organized crime members died Friday night in a confrontation with Mexican soldiers on a highway in the state of Veracruz, Governor Javier Duarte confirmed this Saturday...

(This post was edited by esperanza on Jun 20, 2011, 7:50 AM)

dongringo_catemaco

Jun 19, 2011, 10:17 AM

Post #25 of 28 (2789 views)

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Re: [johninajijic] MEXICO Is Statistically Safer Than The US

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Genuine bullshit.
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