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RickS


Aug 2, 2010, 7:05 PM

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Lake Level?

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So how are this summer's rains affecting the level of the lake?



tonyburton


Aug 2, 2010, 8:07 PM

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Re: [RickS] Lake Level?

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The lake is currently at cota (level) 95.65.
This puts it at about 69.19% of capacity, with a volume of 5.464 millions cubic meters.
It is still rising, and is expected by National Water Commission officials to exceed cota 96, and possibly get close to 97 before the rainy season is over.


stevebrtx

Aug 3, 2010, 5:04 AM

Post #3 of 45 (12639 views)

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Re: [tonyburton] Lake Level?

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You can track the weather at http://chapalaweather.net/ and there is also a CEA link on the page.
http://www.chapalaweather.net


johanson


Aug 3, 2010, 6:02 AM

Post #4 of 45 (12632 views)

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Re: [tonyburton] Lake Level?

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Tony, you will be happy to learn that it's even higher. As of yesterday using the CONAQUA link provided on the weather link above, the level is all the way up to 65.95 . We are some 32 days ahead of where we were when it went so high two years ago. Things look really great for a high lake level.

Check out the following link http://ceajalisco.gob.mx/...amiento/Chapala.html The government experts who are the first to admit that their projections could be off suggest we may see a high of 67.8 (cota)


(This post was edited by johanson on Aug 3, 2010, 8:26 AM)


RickS


Aug 3, 2010, 10:45 AM

Post #5 of 45 (12580 views)

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Re: [johanson] Lake Level?

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"...the level is all the way up to 65.95."

Should that be 95.95?

And par favor give me a 'visual' reference.... like about where is it around the Ajijic pier?


tashby


Aug 3, 2010, 11:29 AM

Post #6 of 45 (12570 views)

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Re: [RickS] Lake Level?

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Near the Ajijic pier, it's advanced quite a bit in the last couple of weeks. I've been watching. It's getting pretty close to halfway between the Tequila Republic restaurant on the pier, and the Old Posada.

The water isn't as high as it was a couple of years ago when it was lapping at what was then Roberto's Restaurant (now Yve's).....but it's on its way!


(This post was edited by tashby on Aug 3, 2010, 2:12 PM)


johanson


Aug 3, 2010, 12:57 PM

Post #7 of 45 (12549 views)

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Re: [RickS] Lake Level?

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Rick, you are so right. The # is not 65.9 but 95.9 , with a possible high in the high 97s sorry about that


RickS


Aug 3, 2010, 3:12 PM

Post #8 of 45 (12532 views)

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Re: [tonyburton] Lake Level?

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I realize that the lake level conversations may be 'old hat', but....

Recalling that a couple of years ago (2008) the lake got 'real high'. And, according to the chart that Pete posted, the highest point was 'only' cota 96.72. It 'may' get to 97 this rainy season some are saying.

My question is this: if 95.65 is about 69.19% capacity (how can 'about' be taken to 2 decimal points!?!) then cota 96.72 two years ago would be about 70% (if in fact level and capacity are linear). If 70% two years ago was lapping more or less at the steps of the Old Posada at the pier, then 'where will we put the remaining 30% of capacity'?

What is the 'capacity' figure based on and is it a antiquated measurement (because obviously 100% might put the waterfront somewhere around Ocampo!)?

I'm just saying Jim Bentien might like to know....


chinagringo


Aug 3, 2010, 3:30 PM

Post #9 of 45 (12526 views)

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Re: [RickS] Lake Level?

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As long as you are speculating - what will happen if the following proves to be true:

"Informador.com.mx published an article on the 23rd saying CONAGUA is predicting
the Lake may reach 97.80M, a level not seen since 1978. If this happens, it will
be 1.08M (42") over the 2008 high, or 1.8M (71") over current level. As some of you
remember in 2008 the water was at the edge of downtown, 3' more would put it "in" town."

Just how much infringement on the lakeshore has occurred in the 32 years since 1978?

Regards,
Neil
Albuquerque, NM



tonyburton


Aug 3, 2010, 4:18 PM

Post #10 of 45 (12511 views)

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Re: [RickS] Lake Level?

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Over the years, yes, there have been several different values of "full".
The current definition is based on a cota of 97.8; the highest level ever recorded was 99.38.
As an aside, when the lake was low during the 1980s and 1990s, the National Water Commission arbitrarily changed "full" to cota 94.9 (volume of about 4,500 million cubic meters). Coincidentally, this change was made only a matter of weeks before a meeting in Guadalajara of the Heads of State of most countries in the Americas, and authorities were able to boast about a lake at 70%+ of its capacity. I remember this period well (shows how old I am) because I was the first to point out in the press the manipulation of statistics involved.
Finally, yes, if the lake reaches even close to the modern definition of "full", considerable areas of several lakeside settlements will be under water. There's a reason why older houses were built with a big step up from the road...


mexliving

Aug 3, 2010, 4:21 PM

Post #11 of 45 (12506 views)

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Re: [tonyburton] Lake Level?

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i am placing some sand bags as you read this on my front yard...... just kidding....


arbon

Aug 3, 2010, 6:54 PM

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Re: [tonyburton] Lake Level?

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Tony, what are the elevations at the pumped outlet at St Nicolas and the natural river outlet at Ocotlan?

The outlet at Ocotlan into the Rio Grande de Santiago would control the Max' lake level, Eh?
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~



Datarecoverysoftware

Aug 4, 2010, 5:47 AM

Post #13 of 45 (12462 views)

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Re: [RickS] Lake Level?

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It should be 96%. We need to stop taken water from the lake.


Antwan
Data recovery services


tonyburton


Aug 4, 2010, 7:32 AM

Post #14 of 45 (12446 views)

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Re: [arbon] Lake Level?

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The outlet at San Nicolas is well under current lake level (otherwise they wouldn't be able to pump any water!); this was true for almost the entire time, even when the lake level was low.
The natural river outlet at Ocotlan no longer fully controls the outlet (along the River Santiago) since that river is dammed a relatively short distance downstream from the lake (and height of the dam therefore is a partial control as well).
Bear in mind also, that the Santiago does not have a very large channel cross-section, so discharge along the Santiago would necessarily be limited.
Given that the lake level has reached cota 99.38 previously, it certainly has the potential to do so again.
Finally, cota levels have only been recorded since the early part of the 20th century, and we know from oral and written accounts that the lake has certainly reached higher levels on several previous occasions.


tonyburton


Aug 4, 2010, 7:42 AM

Post #15 of 45 (12440 views)

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Re: [RickS] Lake Level?

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RockS; sorry, I missed your question about height/volume relationship.
It is not a linear relationship, since the lake area increases (and not in an entirely regular fashion) as lake level increases. The area occupied depends on the land heights, and for example, the huge area at the eastern end of the lake which was amputated at the start of the 20th century is flooded very rapidly compared with areas like the "north shore".
The volume at the highest level recorded (cota 99.38) was about 9.721 million cubic meters.
By a lucky coincidence, cota 90.00 marks the point where the lake is essentially empty, with an estimated volume of only 0.000475 million cubic meters of water.
At any point in time, it is easy to work out the approximate average depth. It will always be slightly less than the difference between cota 90.00 and the actual cota. Hence, right now, it is approximately 6.5 meters.


Gringal

Aug 4, 2010, 9:03 AM

Post #16 of 45 (12414 views)

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Re: [tonyburton] Lake Level?

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This morning's eyeball report from Ajijic pier:

Piles of lirio blown in last night: truck with workers came in collecting it.
Level nearly to pitiful boat floating, if it floats.
Outer wall below walkway covered; birds walking on it.
Lower pier at end of Tequila joint almost inundated.

Big clouds: beautiful morning. Ole !


chinagringo


Aug 15, 2010, 9:03 AM

Post #17 of 45 (12155 views)

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Re: [RickS] Lake Level?

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Rick:

You asked for recent photos and I found these taken this past week in Ajijic:
http://expatsmexico.setbb.com/...-malecone-t2549.html
Regards,
Neil
Albuquerque, NM



Georgia


Aug 18, 2010, 7:52 AM

Post #18 of 45 (11982 views)

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Re: [Gringal] Lake Level?

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I am at the west end of the lake, in the municipality of Jocotepec. Two years ago the lake went past the new malecon and flooded the picnic area behind the malecon for months. It also flooded the sewage treatment plant and CETAC, the technical high school near the plant. If, indeed, we do get to the levels of 1978 that area will be entirely under water. At one point in 1978 thewaves were splashing the back walls of my house. Our back yard is about 2.5 meters above the lake floor here at the west end. So, when they report that this year's levels may reach those of 1978 it worries me. Time to raise the sea wall behind our house and get out the sandbags!


Hound Dog

Aug 18, 2010, 12:01 PM

Post #19 of 45 (11937 views)

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Re: [Georgia] Lake Level?

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Our back yard is about 2.5 meters above the lake floor here at the west end. So, when they report that this year's levels may reach those of 1978 it worries me. Time to raise the sea wall behind our house and get out the sandbags!

Well, Georgia, mi amiga:

Does this mean that, if the lake intrudes upon your property, your digs become federal land and Dawg and his bride, as newly christened "inmigrados" can move in to your upper floors and settle in there until our home in Ajijic, which has no second floor and is also getting awfully near the lake front, is no longer inundated? I was just down to the beach at the Ajijic malecon and noted that the beach paths upon which I only recently walked my princess daily is now underwater and the lake is lapping at the base of the earth berm upon which the malecon is constructed.

If you end up residing in your mirador before this is all over, keep an eye out for our makeshift raft sailing in from Ajijic with two geezers and three dogs on board. We´ll bring along a case of tuna fish tins, Saltines and a supply of Tabasco to see us through for a few months. Thanks in advance for your hospitality.


Hound Dog

Aug 18, 2010, 12:07 PM

Post #20 of 45 (11934 views)

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Re: [Datarecoverysoftware] Lake Level?

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It should be 96%. We need to stop taken water from the lake.

As a Lakeside homeowner living quite close to today´s lakefront even at the current level and with about six weeks of rainy season to go, allow me to paraphrase the late, great Henny Youngman:

"Take my water, please."


Georgia


Aug 18, 2010, 12:26 PM

Post #21 of 45 (11927 views)

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Re: [Hound Dog] Lake Level?

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Forget the tuna. Bring rum and tequila. Also lots of happy pills for the dogs. We have acquired, in addition to our two Golden Retrievers, what appears to be a dog who escaped from a traveling circus. He is small, but takes on all manner of four legged creatures as if they were invading Huns. He is also quite agile and can scale cement and/or brick walls and leap across our swimming pool, climb trees, and jump up onto my husband's shoulders, clear five foot fences from a dead start and generally create mayhem. You're on your own where this dog is concerned, other than that c'mon down.

Two years ago I was standing on our wall at the back of the property looking at the lake when I was splashed by a wave that crested over the wall. Considering that when we purchased our property there was no lake behind us, this was all very amazing. We haven't seen our federal zone concession in years. Used to have horses, pigs, chickens, ducks, etc. plus fields of alfalfa back there. Beyond that was a dirt road that farm vehicles used to get to their fields.

Now, as to the raft: is it up to Mexican building codes for rafts? We can have any riff raff rafts around here in exclusive downtown El Chante.


esperanza

Aug 18, 2010, 4:12 PM

Post #22 of 45 (11881 views)

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Re: [Georgia] Lake Level?

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"Look, we're passing Martinique
Regularly once a week,
Like Kon Tiki we
Sail over the sea
The riff raff refugee..."
--lyric from a Leonard Sillman song, New Faces

http://www.mexicocooks.typepad.com









tashby


Aug 18, 2010, 4:45 PM

Post #23 of 45 (11877 views)

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Re: [Gringal] Lake Level?

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Quote
Level nearly to pitiful boat floating, if it floats.


I'm not going to guarantee that thing floats....but there's definitely water underneath it as of today.

Could be re-barred into the earth from underneath for all I know. In fact, just yesterday I came across an old photo from 2008 when the water was so high, and there was that boat. Same boat same spot but the water had adjusted its position, slightly. Inferior rebar, perhaps.


Georgia


Aug 18, 2010, 4:53 PM

Post #24 of 45 (11871 views)

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Re: [esperanza] Lake Level?

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And to think I sold my kayak before moving here. My only option had been to put it on our defunct dock and title it "Esperanza" .... but it went at the yard sale!!


Gringal

Aug 18, 2010, 7:42 PM

Post #25 of 45 (11837 views)

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Re: [Georgia] Lake Level?

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As of today, if it could float, it would.

The thing is..............we have a serious lake here and one must remember that at one time, the mountains were its only limit. Scary? a little.
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