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Moisheh

Oct 18, 2007, 6:53 PM

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Repatriation

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Because we live near the USA border I try to follow all the news about illegal immigration. USA Today, CNN and the AZ papers have been carrying stories about Mexicans ( illegals) returning to Mexico out of fear of being arrested. Many communities have passed laws that impact the illegals. These include: making it illegal to rent a home to an undocumented person, arresting those with no DL and denying any services for those without proper status. According to CNN 14,000 persons have returned to Mexico in the last 90 days. This # is for those who have used the help of an organization that helps them resettle and does not include those who did so with no assistance. In the interviews the "experts" are predicting that thousands more will be returning due to the lack of construction jobs. Do you think that the deportees( apologies to Woody Guthrie) will negatively impact the economy in Mexico. Where will they work? Will they work fo the meager wages that are paid in Mexico after living high off the hog? What will happen to all the dependants that were receiving billions of dollars from the illegal workers in the USA? And the big question: If a significant amount of people return will the Mexican government make life difficult for expats and tourists?

Moisheh



Rolly


Oct 18, 2007, 8:29 PM

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Re: [Moisheh] Repatriation

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I think it is likely to have a very big impact. I have seen reports that remittances are way down. This is already causing hardships on many families.

I think it very unlikely that the Mexican government will retaliate against expats or tourists -- we are a cash cow.

Rolly Pirate


windknot

Nov 7, 2007, 12:58 PM

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Re: [Rolly] Repatriation

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I don't necessarily worry about the government either. But I do worry a little, about reprisal from the general public. I live far from the border, but it is very likely that people in my town have relatives that might be going through some of those problems at the border. Families in Mexico are (in general) much closely-knit than in the States, and I wonder if some day I might see (for example) something spray-painted on the wall outside my house.....which at least in this area, is a very popular method of dissent.


sandykayak


Nov 7, 2007, 1:12 PM

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Re: [Rolly] Repatriation

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IMO, the lack of money from the returnees as well as those no longer getting remittances is likely to reflect in an increase in break-ins and other crimes. Unfortunately, the expats are "known" to have more money and stuff worth stealing.

This, in turn, could be an incentive for expats to voluntarily return their countries of origin for safety reasons.
Sandy Kramer
Miami, Fla & El Parque


esperanza

Nov 7, 2007, 3:17 PM

Post #5 of 8 (5213 views)

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Re: [Moisheh] Repatriation

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Information in Spanish about 2007 remittances sent from Mexicans in the USA to Mexico:

http://www.informador.com.mx/informador/modules/xfsection/article.php?page=1&articleid=98096

Information in English from which the Spanish article was taken:

http://www.nytimes.com/2007/10/26/business/worldbusiness/26remit.html

Please note that neither newspaper writes that remittances are LOWER than they were in 2006. Both articles state that the rate of increase in remittances has slowed substantially. Remittances hit a high in 2006 of more than $24 billion (yes, billion) US dollars sent from Mexicans working in the USA to Mexico. In 2007, the increase in remittances has slowed to 2% above that amount.

http://www.mexicocooks.typepad.com









JohnnyBoy

Nov 8, 2007, 8:16 AM

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Re: [Moisheh] Repatriation

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I sort of follow this topic in the Tucson newspaper, for much the same reasons as Moisheh. I think I have also recently heard mention of this phenomenon on the national (USA) news. My ears perked up, though, because it seemed to bear out the opinion and theory I have that if communities (whether they be towns, cities, counties, states, or the entire country) were serious about ridding themselves of illegal immigrants about all they would need to do would be to remove the incentive those illegals have for coming to those communities: jobs. The illegals are, after all, breaking the law, but the people who facilitate that illegality seem complicite to me.

Having lived for a number of years in California within a 15 minute walk of a large Hispanic barrio where I loved to buy cheap, fresh vegetables and fruit, get my hair cut for under $10, and find wonderful authentic Mexican food, I knew that most of the other visitors and customers of those businesses, most of whom could not speak English, and certainly the majority of the people working there, were illegal. I went down there on a few occasions to hire day laborers to help me with my several moves. Elsewhere throughout the Bay Area, in virtually every restaurant I could get a peek, be it Vietnamese, Italian, Mexican, hamburger joint, virtually all the low level employees (cooks, servers, dishwashers) appeared to be Hispanic, and sorry, I assume they were illegals. And I know these same conditions exist throughout the Bay Area, all of California, to a very significant decree, and that if all of a sudden they were all magically removed and transported via magic wand back to their points of origin that much in California would come to a screeching halt.

Whether or not we, as individuals, think these people should be there or not, doesn't matter. Whether or not they have broken the law, which they obviously have, doesn't matter anymore. There are just too many of them. But any community that wants them gone ought to know how to do it and the community had better be ready to live without them and the services they render.

I think some smaller communities and some of the more radicalized communities (like those in Arizona) will do exactly what they are said to be doing now: drying up the jobs, apartments, and other aspects of living that make it possible and attractive to be in those communities. I doubt that large communities like LA and the Bay Area are ever going to do it. Partly because the powers that be there are too liberal minded to do it, but mostly because it would devastate the economy and disrupt the lives of the people who have come to depend on this source of cheap labor. Smalltown, AZ will get what it wants and so will LA. Most politicians in Washington, even those in Sacramento or Phoenix, don't care unless or until it begins to affect their re-electability.

I understand and appreciate what is at the bottom of Moisheh's question and comments. Who knows if any of this will come back to bite any of us living here in Mexico! Where will they all go and what will they do and how will that affect us? In my mind I imagine it will have little impact on us, but it certainly does increase the possibility of real disenchantment with things and persons gringo and there are almost certainly a few wingnuts among those returning who could react against any one of us. I think the chances of that are probably similar to those among illegals who get deported and then decide to take it out of the first gringo they see back here. Remote.


robrt8

Nov 9, 2007, 8:39 AM

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Re: [JohnBleazard] Repatriation

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In spite of the few, albeit well publicized, deportations in the news lately, this will not be the way things play out in the future. Once the politicians can convince the public that the border is under control (whatever that may be), they can deal with the millions who will never be deported.
I imagine there are two reasons the remittances are down. First, there aren't as many of the type of jobs around now NOB that provide these remittances. Second, the cost of living, especially for those immigrants caught up in the consumer culture, is too much.


carlw

Nov 9, 2007, 9:12 AM

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Re: [Moisheh] Repatriation

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I think the total impact of returnees is going to be minimal. WHat is happening now is a combination of several factors at one time. The Fed gov't is performing a crackdown that attracts a lot of media attention but doesn't amount to much in numbers. It sends a message to get papers in order and for employers to check validity of documents. It is very random and more PR than anything else. The construction and associated industries have slowed down in many areas and illegals who have worked sleadily now have no jobs; some think it is time to return to Mexico to enjoy the fruit of their labors. And there is a real effort in many communities to deport illegals who break the law, as part of continuing trends to reduce crime. I think there will not be much repercussion against Americans from returnees, most of whom will be going to towns where no Americans live anyway. The problem will be that many returnees have ben incarcerated at some time, or part of gangs, and will bring the culture of those associations back to Mexico with them. Look at Guatemala and Honduras. I know many Mexican people in Dallas/FW who do not have papers, and not a single one of them have any intention of returning to Mexico unless forced to do so. THose who face problems in some communities just relocate to more friendly areas within the USA.

As for remissions, there ar several factors at work there, too. An awful lot of these people have been here so long that those they left behind, especially parents, are dead and gone, or they have lost touch with other family. In those cases, remissions stop and they use the money to build nice houses, buy nice cars and trucks, put kids through college and save up for retirement. Remissions that went South to build houses stop when the houses are done. And those who are facing unemployment in the USA due to current economic trends are hanging on to the money untill things get better or don't have money to send because they need whatever they can get to live on.

No need to panic yet.
 
 
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