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Bloviator

Apr 5, 2007, 6:26 AM

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Very Interesting Population Article

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Yesterday in making predictions for Mexico's future, I suggested that the population would soon be out of control if Mexicans didn't control the number of children per family. Evidently the whole of Mexico read my article and responded resoundingly and prior to my comment.

The following article appeared in the LA Times this morning.

http://www.latimes.com/news/opinion/commentary/la-oe-oneil5apr05,0,4836246.story?coll=la-home-commentary

The most interesting point in the article for me was that the birth rate in Mexico is down to 2.2 per woman - just barely above the replacement rate. With immigration to the US factored in, evidently Mexico will not have the population problem that so concerned me.

(This post was edited by jennifer rose on Apr 5, 2007, 8:20 AM)

Septiembre

Apr 5, 2007, 6:48 AM

Post #2 of 15 (3522 views)

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Re: [dlyman6500] Very Interesting Population Article

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WOW! If these numbers are true, things are going to change drastically. We already know about the baby bust NOB but the drop in the Mexican birth rate to 2.2 is really dramatic.

This article should be read by all, particularly the anti-immigration crowd NOB who do not appreciate what the impact of aging population will be there.

Thanks for putting this up!

Georgia

Apr 5, 2007, 7:11 AM

Post #3 of 15 (3516 views)

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Re: [dlyman6500] Very Interesting Population Article

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I couldn't log on to the site, but I'm wondering if the rise of a middle class in Mexico was cited as a factor in the drop in the birthrate?

jreboll

Apr 5, 2007, 10:03 AM

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Re: [Georgia] Very Interesting Population Article

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When I first arrived in Michoacan in the 70's I saw families with 4-5 kids on average. I did see a lot of single older men and women and many couples marrying in their late 20's.
Now I see that the following generation is mostly averaging about 2 kids.

margojean

Apr 5, 2007, 10:43 AM

Post #5 of 15 (3463 views)

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Re: [Georgia] Very Interesting Population Article

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Easy access to birth control methods is one factor. So is prosperity. Looking at the individual country reports in the Economists' annual handbook, you can see that the fertility ratio(birthrate) drops in EVERY country as incomes rise and as women enter the work force. It also seems to drop as restrictions are lifted on all aspects of life - as in the former Soviet Union countries, now in a population crash that will open the door to Chinese and Islamic immigration waves. Italy, Ireland and Quebec are interesting examples - down to about 1.2 after centuries of rigid Catholic control. China on the other hand has dropped for the opposite reason - rigid controls limiting families to one child.
margojean

Georgia

Apr 5, 2007, 11:32 AM

Post #6 of 15 (3453 views)

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Re: [margojean] Very Interesting Population Article

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Interesting corollary here: as birthrates decline, so will the economy. An increasing population is necessary for the growth of gnp and future economic stability. A dilemma. Immigration changes the nature of the present population, which is found to be threatening. Look at the Pope's recent statements about the European Union's failure to mention its historical ties to christianity. Immigration is viewed as a threat because people fear change.

geri

Apr 5, 2007, 11:51 AM

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Re: [Georgia] Very Interesting Population Article

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About 6 years ago when I broke my ankle in Chiapas (Lagos de Montebello), after having it set (perfectly) by a huesero in a remote village, we noticed a crowd gathered in the pueblo square, listening to someone talk. All the listeners were women, most carrying a baby with a child in tow. Even with the pain I was in, I just HAD to know what the subject was. The speaker on the platform was giving information about birth control!!! The Mexicans in my group told me that many people in remote villages don't even know how they get pregnant, nevermind about how to prevent it. I know this post probably belongs in the Southern Mexico forum, but I get sarcastic, negative comments when I post there. So just delete this, if it's not appropriate.

I also have been told by middle class Mexican women that they take birth control pills and don't tell their husbands. So maybe progress is being made re population explosion in Mexico....other than moving to El Norte, which many do not want to do. Only time will tell, I guess.

Gringal

Apr 5, 2007, 12:26 PM

Post #8 of 15 (3439 views)

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Re: [geri] Very Interesting Population Article

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Good comment. I don't want to step on anyone's religious toes, but when women get information about family planning, they usually act to limit the size of same.

The problem with population growth in rural areas is a simple matter of arithmetic:
A farm that can support a family of six cannot be subdivided into six portions for the next generation and support 36 people if they reproduce at the same rate at the original farmer.
And impoverished group of 36 people will not help the overall economy.

In a developed country like the U.S., the prosperity of the fifties resulted in a huge population surge. That blip in family prosperity came to an end, and now, both parents in the average family must work in order to support the lifestyle they enjoyed in the good old days. Besides that, we now have a huge generation of boomers about to reach retirement age in an era when there are not enough younger workers to support the social security and health care systems. Had the boomers parents limited their families to "replacement" numbers, the problem would not exist. However, the large corporations thought only of the profits to be made as the populace produced more and more "consumers"; aka, humans.

Where it goes from here, who knows?

bournemouth

Apr 5, 2007, 1:06 PM

Post #9 of 15 (3427 views)

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Re: [geri] Very Interesting Population Article

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Geri - not to detract from this overall thread - but please continue to post wherever you feel your comment needs to go - do not be deterred by one "curmudgeon" - I for one miss you posts.

jerezano

Apr 6, 2007, 9:18 AM

Post #10 of 15 (3356 views)

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Re: [geri] Very Interesting Population Article

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Hello,

Birth control here in México.

Here in México since way back in the 1970's the Federal Government has had active and sometimes oppressive programs of birth control.

As was pointed out above they run education programs. They distribute condoms. They also run sterilization programs which as I say sometimes become opressive. When a woman gives birth in a clinic or hospital she is usually offered a free sterilization at the same time. Sometimes, and this has been a real matter of controversary, she is sterilized without her consent, or if with consent, she had signed a permission she wasn't aware of.

Other times devices are inserted without permission, which have also resulted in many reported cases of unrequested sterilization, or of infection or allergic reaction. Even now in century 21 I see a few such cases reported each year in the newspapers where the "victims", usually of poor or illiterate backgrounds, complain about "malpractice" from these causes.

Nevertheless, the birth control programs have had excellent results among women for the nation as a whole. No longer does one run into families with 24 children "all from the same woman" as was boasted to me by a peón at that time living in a village yet without electricity.Also the incidence of Downs Syndrome has dropped drastically.

The same cannot be said about the free vasectomy programs offered the men. Because of the "macho" attitude of most Mexican men those programs have very few takers.

The Federal Government is quite satisfied with the results which are very evident in the statistical decline in the birth rate. They are still trying to get it below 2 which is the desired reproduction rate for each couple.

Will they stop their programs when that rate is finally reached? Probably not, as the goal seems now to be tied more to the economic well-being of the family. Too, there are a lot of beaurocratic jobs and dollars tied to those programs and beaurocrats hate to lose jobs and programs.

In sum, the results have so far been good for México, at the cost of some individual pain but economic gain for most.

Adiós. jerezano

jennifer rose

Apr 6, 2007, 9:26 AM

Post #11 of 15 (3350 views)

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Re: [jerezano] Very Interesting Population Article

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But let’s talk about abortion now. Legislation is afloat in Mexico City and Congress to legalize abortions up to the 14th week. Right now, abortion is available only under very limited circumstances, e.g. rape, mortal danger to the mother and incest. Obviously, this has the Catholic Church hitting the panic button, and the faithful are rallying the troops. As Roe v. Wade is chipped away in the U.S., will Mexico’s liberalized abortion laws change the social landscape? http://www.staringatstrangers.com

Bloviator

Apr 10, 2007, 6:18 AM

Post #12 of 15 (3229 views)

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Re: [dlyman6500] Very Interesting Population Article

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Roni Smith - We've had a discussion of the article. You might be interested in the postings.

The one that most intrigued me is Georgia's post that reduced population will result in reduced gnp. I think that ultimately she is correct. On the other hand, with the lack of useful land, modern infrastructure and lack of jobs in Mexico, I think the short term result of reducing the Mexican birth rate is positive.

(This post was edited by dlyman6500 on Apr 10, 2007, 6:20 AM)

jerezano

Apr 10, 2007, 7:53 AM

Post #13 of 15 (3213 views)

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Re: [jennifer rose] Very Interesting Population Article

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Hello,

Jennifer rose said:>> But let’s talk about abortion now.<<

True, legal abortion is now being debated and protested in México City. It is forecast that for the District Federal, such abortion will indeed be legalized despite the threat of the Catholic Church to excommunicate any legislator who votes in favor. As one legislator has been quoted: No me importa. Soy atéo.

But that legalization will apply only for the District Federal. No other locations. And the possibility for legalizing of abortions for the rest of México appears absolutely nil at this time.

That appears to be the status from what I can glean from the media. Is there anything more to add or correct?

Adiós. jerezano.

roni_smith

Apr 10, 2007, 8:38 AM

Post #14 of 15 (3199 views)

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Re: [dlyman6500] Very Interesting Population Article

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Thanks dlyman6500
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Planning for Mexico Move Blog

roni_smith

Apr 10, 2007, 10:33 AM

Post #15 of 15 (3173 views)

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Re: [Georgia] Very Interesting Population Article

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Georgia wrote: Interesting corollary here: as birthrates decline, so will the economy. An increasing population is necessary for the growth of gnp and future economic stability.

There are many factors leading to growth in economic activity and stability. Generally, in modern history, prosperity has increased as birthrates have declined. This has much more to do with increased productivity due to the mechanization of agriculture and industy, followed by more and more powerful tools (computers, etc) and improved infrastructure (physical and intellectual) than it does with the birth rate - it seems to me.

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Planning for Mexico Move Blog