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esperanza

Apr 8, 2007, 8:11 AM

Post #51 of 67 (9639 views)

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Re: [Georgia] Prognostications

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Not to mention no English-speaking community. Geez, how can you survive?

http://www.mexicocooks.typepad.com









Georgia


Apr 8, 2007, 10:00 AM

Post #52 of 67 (9620 views)

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Re: [esperanza] Prognostications

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I don't. It's just miserable here. Hehe


Gringal

Apr 8, 2007, 10:06 AM

Post #53 of 67 (9619 views)

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Re: [Georgia] Prognostications

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Wipe that smug grin off your face and stop gloating, already.


jennifer rose

Apr 8, 2007, 10:21 AM

Post #54 of 67 (9613 views)

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Re: [Gringal] Prognostications

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Let's get back to predictions instead of chit-chat. Or else the lock may follow.


caroljruby

Apr 8, 2007, 4:27 PM

Post #55 of 67 (9568 views)

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Re: [jennifer rose] Prognostications

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Mexico will get more and more expensive as the baby boomers from the U.S. retire there. I've seen a big difference (in prices, in traffic) since the last time I was there (10 years ago) and now (January/February). The traffic is so much worse than years ago. As the population increases, this will become a big problem (same as in the U.S.). I spent one day in San Miguel. I happened to walk into a restaurant full of Texans wearing cowboy hats. I left quickly. I would love to live closer to Mexico (now live in New York City) but I'd never live in Texas. I just don't know where to go...Morelia, Patzcuaro, San Cristobal, Savannah, Georgia. I have to make a decision this year...getting out of New York.


Bubba

Apr 9, 2007, 6:38 AM

Post #56 of 67 (9521 views)

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Re: [caroljruby] Prognostications

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I would love to live closer to Mexico (now live in New York City) but I'd never live in Texas. I just don't know where to go...Morelia, Patzcuaro, San Cristobal, Savannah, Georgia. I have to make a decision this year...getting out of New York.

Well Carol:

That is one diverse grouping of choices. I don´t know how Savannah got in there but it is very far from Mexico geographically and socially. I was raised near Mobile and can tell you that Mobile, Savannah, Charleston and such places, while beautiful and, at first at least, charming, are insufferable places where you will never be accepted unless you have a great deal of money and/or a French accent. The summertime climate in those places (starting in April and ending in October) is unbearable and the winters can be cold. They exist in a time warp.

Forget the United States and move to Mexico. Once you have been out of the U.S. for a few years you will wonder why you didn´t leave sooner.

The Mexican places you listed are all high altitude places (6,400 to over 7,000 feet) with brisk, often overcast and rainy climates. Since you currently live at sea level, are you prepared for high altitude living? You really need to be able to cope with Spanish in these places unless you want to be totally cut off from the local culture.

Whatever. Good luck in your search. See you in San Cristóbal if you visit there.

Actually, I recommend Georgia´s Jocotepec (actually, suburban El Chante). Not only is the climate really nice there at 5,000 feet but if you have an IQ of at least 70, you can join the local Mensa Society.


(This post was edited by Bubba on Apr 9, 2007, 7:19 AM)


roni_smith


Apr 9, 2007, 7:13 PM

Post #57 of 67 (9459 views)

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Re: [dlyman6500] Prognostications

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According to Shannon O'Neil (Council on Foreign Relations), the birth rate in Mexico has already dropped dramatically, to about population replacement rates. Here is what she wrote for an April 5 opinion piece in the LA Times

Mexico is undergoing a demographic transition. According to the Mexican census bureau, long gone are the days of families with six, seven or 10 kids. Instead, Mexican women now average 2.2 births—only slightly above the average 2.1 births that occur in the United States and that are considered the “replacement rate,” the level needed to maintain a stable population over time. Life expectancy in Mexico has increased to 75 years, compared to 77 in the United States. With fewer births and longer lives, by 2050, Mexico will become as old as the United States. In short, Mexico is about to age dramatically.


You can read the whole article here:

http://www.cfr.org/publication/12995/not_enough_immigrants.html
------
Planning for Mexico Move Blog



(This post was edited by roni_smith on Apr 9, 2007, 7:13 PM)


jreboll

Apr 9, 2007, 11:10 PM

Post #58 of 67 (9429 views)

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Re: [roni_smith] Prognostications

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We may see birth rates lowering but I am also seeing a migration from rural areas to the cities. This growth has put a strain on city services and without adequate planning even the old established sections are affected. Our home is on a narrow street just walking distance to downtown. Now the foot traffic, cars parking on sidewalks, and trash left behind, has dramatically changed the neighborhood.


Bloviator

Apr 10, 2007, 6:22 AM

Post #59 of 67 (9406 views)

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Re: [roni_smith] Prognostications

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See the discussion of that very article below.


(This post was edited by dlyman6500 on Apr 10, 2007, 6:23 AM)


bfwpdx

Apr 10, 2007, 6:24 AM

Post #60 of 67 (9405 views)

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Re: [jennifer rose] Prognostications

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I see a trend for the incoming hordes of baby boomers....I see a growing diaspora into smaller towns and villages and even more remote areas until every area of Mexico will have it's resident english speaking expatriate.These expatriates will be a very different sort from the ones we have now, as they won't form "expatriate ghettos" but will integrate better into the smaller Mexican locales of which they are a part...they will have functional Spanish for one thing....

A girl can dream can't she?


sparks


Apr 10, 2007, 6:52 AM

Post #61 of 67 (9394 views)

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Re: [Bubba] Prognostications

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Lowering the standards for the Mensa Society in Mexico ... now that's progress !!

Sparks Mexico Blog - Sparks Costalegre


roni_smith


Apr 10, 2007, 7:00 AM

Post #62 of 67 (9389 views)

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Re: [dlyman6500] Prognostications

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I don't see the discussion.....
------
Planning for Mexico Move Blog



Ron Pickering W3FJW


Apr 10, 2007, 2:31 PM

Post #63 of 67 (9339 views)

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Re: [bfwpdx] Prognostications

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I see the next 50 years as Mexico being the same as the US is now. More people moving south, except legally to Mexico.

I heard a remark on the news a few days ago from an illegal Mexican young girl (twenties?) that,

"There are so many of us up here (US) that it is our country now. Why shouldn't we be treated and have the benefits like everyone else."

If that's the case, shouldn't the Expats should have the same rights as well.

OH Well............................................
Getting older and still not down here.


wendy devlin

Apr 10, 2007, 3:10 PM

Post #64 of 67 (9327 views)

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Re: [Ron Pickering W3FJW] Prognostications

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Well, Ron, what can 'un boomer' say:)

even if ALL the baby boomers migrated south...they still wouldn't be in the majority.

The future has ALWAYS belonged to the kids...


cristalhombre


Apr 11, 2007, 12:17 AM

Post #65 of 67 (9282 views)

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Re: [jennifer rose] Prognostications

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While visiting Mexico this past week, I read a fascinating book, "As the Future Catches You", written by Juan Enriquez, a Mexican. He is an outspoken critic of the need to reform Mexico's economic and political structure.

The book received a McKinsey Award from the Harvard Business Review (tops on my reading lists) which simply tells me that the foremost economists in the world "blessed it", in other words it is NOT whimsical theory.

Anyway, after you read this (an easy - non technical and captivating script) you might start another thread with this question: "What is Mexico NOT doing as compared to the rest of the developing world".

Personally I like Mexico just the way it is....................... a burro with firewood 'clip clopping down the cobblestones'....... I find this charming! Refreshingly simple.

What this author points out is that the LACK of education and focus on technology will severely limit the Latin Countries in just a few short years. Prices will increase with inflation but incomes will stagnate, challenging the people of Mexico and the latin regions. If you think the "upside down" economics of Mexico today compared to the other countries is out of balance, just wait a couple of years. The peso (linked to the USD) will continue to struggle as stronger nations "flex their global muscles".

As I mentioned, much of the appeal for Gringos is the simple way of this wonderful host country. But for the average Mexican their lives are going to become VERY challenging from an economic point of view.

The backbone of this book is...... "knowledge is Power in the world economy today"

It is a quick read and here are just a couple of the examples he makes:

About patents (technology developments)

In 1985 the US patent office granted the following patents;

Argentina 12
Brazil 30
Mexico 35
South Korea 50

Fast forward to the year 2003 (patents granted)

Argentina 70
Brazil 180
Mexico 92
South Korea 4,132

from this data Juan Enriquez indicates the following analogy (which the book is full of)

..."during 2003, 11,592 Koreans generated enough knowledge to obtain one US patent, it took 1,140,865 Mexicans to do the same task"

continuing on to compare South Korea and Mexico:

Between 1960 and 1990 the real wage of South Koreans multiplied ninefold. In Mexico the real wage stayed the same during that 30 year period, and by 2000 it had actually fallen.

here's another one:

Between 1990 and 1996 the number of new books published in Mexico fell from 21,500 to 11,762.

The point is: when knowledge or the support of learning is limited...................there will be little or NO economic growth or prosperity.

AS THE FUTURE CATCHES YOU.....is a good read and should be a WAKE - UP for the Mexican leadership and it includes interesting discussion of the latest bio-tech "phenome" GENOMICS and it's future.

Yes!!! things are changing rapidly in Mexico, Jennifer is correct!! We now have wireless at the house in Ajijic. I can sit on the terrace, look at the lake and sip on a margarita, while connected to the Web. how cool is that. However after reading this book, now I ask.............where did that technology come from and who benefits from it Mexico...........that is that real question.

What "changes" do I foresee in the next decade for Mexico.............. What ever the developing - proprietary knowledged countries, will produce and sell to the "un-knowledged countries like Mexico, if and only if they have $$ to buy these upgrades".

another factoid from the book.

Approx. 49% of US households own some stocks/mutual funds etc. In Mexico less than 0.5 percent do.

one more.... this one is obscene:

In 1999, GE employed just under 15,000 maquiladora workers who assembled GE products just across the border. During that year the COMBINED wages of ALL these workers was less than the CEO of General Electric.

Bottome line summary:

Latin countries will remain poor and face bleak prospects because they generate and sell very little NEW knowledge!





"NOT ALL WHO WANDER ARE LOST...."



jreboll

Apr 11, 2007, 3:13 AM

Post #66 of 67 (9278 views)

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Re: [cristalhombre] Prognostications

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Add to this the mistrust of the general population to those in power. There is a feeling that if you have a good idea someone will steal it from you.


Septiembre


Apr 11, 2007, 5:03 AM

Post #67 of 67 (9269 views)

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Re: [cristalhombre] Prognostications

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This is exactly why Mexico will continue to export population to NOB and cushion the aging population problem there. The dynamic that is lacking in the book's analysis is the impact of the cross border flow of people, in both directions, on Mexico.

Mexico needs to embrace the free market. It really hurts itself with its nationalized energy industries and their high prices and gross inefficiencies. It absolutely amazes me that Mexico imports refined products from the U.S. because PemMex can't get its act together enough to build its own refinery capacity. Electricity prices in Mexico are obscene and have to be a huge drag on the economy, thanks to another government monopoly.

Mexicans don't put a lot of value on education because it doesn't return a lot of value to the average person for whom most of the available employment is some form of manual labor or in the arts. When you can make 5-6 times the minimum wage as a domestic in Ajijic, why go to school? The expat population has become a major source of jobs for Mexicans, simply reinforcing this trend.

Young people are going to continue to flow north, by one means or another, and old people will continue to flow south. Both countries need to quickly realize how dependent they are on each other and implement policies which establish some fair ground rules.
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