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jennifer rose

Apr 1, 2007, 8:34 PM

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Prognostications

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Mexico has seen tremendous changes during the ten, twenty years last past. What changes in this country do you foresee in the next decade and the one after that?



Jerry@Ajijic

Apr 3, 2007, 7:41 AM

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Re: [jennifer rose] Prognostications

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For one thing it's going to keep getting more expensive.


Marlene


Apr 3, 2007, 3:58 PM

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Re: [jennifer rose] Prognostications

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I believe more attention will be paid to environmental issues and concerns than in the past.


(This post was edited by Marlene on Apr 3, 2007, 3:58 PM)


Anonimo

Apr 3, 2007, 3:59 PM

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Re: [jennifer rose] Prognostications

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The Mexican currency will be the US dollar.



Saludos,
Anonimo


wendy devlin

Apr 3, 2007, 4:24 PM

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Re: [Anonimo] Prognostications

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"The Mexican currency will be the US dollar."

Maybe.

However, economics pundits,
how many MEXUS $ will it cost to buy 1 Canadian $ ?


(This post was edited by wendy devlin on Apr 3, 2007, 4:29 PM)


drmike

Apr 3, 2007, 4:29 PM

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Re: [wendy devlin] Prognostications

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From what I'm reading there is a coming alliance called the North American Union (NAU) which will bring the political and economic relationship of Canada, the US and Mexico into sync. Sort of like the European Union. NAFTA was the first step. The currency that is being talked about will be the Amero...for all three countries.

Google in "North American Union" and see what you think.

Hopefully, it's simply rumor and conjecture, but who knows?
Dr. Mike

http://www.smarthealthchoices.blogspot.com

There are hundreds of paths up the mountain,
all leading in the same direction,
so it doesn't matter which path you take.
The only one wasting time is the one
who runs around and around the mountain,
telling everyone that his or her path is wrong.


Hindu teaching



(This post was edited by drmike on Apr 3, 2007, 5:20 PM)


Bloviator

Apr 4, 2007, 6:48 AM

Post #7 of 67 (14250 views)

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Re: [jennifer rose] Prognostications

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Probably most major cities will have totally gridlocked traffic and a crumpling infrastructure - with the possible exception of Guad where they are trying to keep up with the growth.

Water problems will become acute throughout Mexico if the Mexican government doesn't do something to alleviate the problem. This includes Ajijic.

The population, already probably 110 million, will swell immensely unless something changes attitudes toward having numerous children. This population explosion will cause massive social and economic problems.

If by some insane means, the US manages to relocate all the 10 or so million Mexicans in the US back to Mexico, the economy of both countries will have a serious meltdown. On the other hand, an intelligent partnership between the two nations can have great implications for progress.

I hope none of the things above eventuate - except for the possible partnership. Mexico has made huge strides in recent years and, therefore, there is hope that the nation will confront its problems. At least they don't have to worry about important things like Anna Nichole Smith and Scooter Libby as those NoB do.

If somehow Mexico's wealthy and powerful can overcome the problems of coruption and their sense of superiority over the rest of their fellow Mexicans, progress is likely.


(This post was edited by dlyman6500 on Apr 4, 2007, 7:01 AM)


Georgia


Apr 4, 2007, 7:47 AM

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Re: [dlyman6500] Prognostications

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Population: as the economy improves, the previously impoverished will have fewer children. This may seem like backwards thinking, but when you are really poor, having more children to work and provide for elderly parents is the norm. The more upscale you are, the fewer children you tend to have. Then, too, among the really impoverished there is the problem of infant mortality. In parts of Brasil they do not even name their children until about the age of 2 or 3 because they want to wait and make sure they survive.

People from developed nations look at the large families of the impovershed in developing countries and think of the cost involved in raising a child. People in developing countries who are impoverished consider their children to be their wealth.

While my husband and I have ten children, it's because most of them are adopted ... they had been abandoned by their mother in Colombia. Because she had no husband, the new man in her life would not support another man's children once she had his baby. That is not an unusual occurrence.


Bloviator

Apr 4, 2007, 8:26 AM

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Re: [Georgia] Prognostications

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Fortunately or unfortunately - obviously fortunately for the families involved - the death rate for Mexican children has dropped considerably in recent years. Also, the longevity has increased. The result is a spike in the population.

Fortunately, the government since the 1980s has promoted smaller families. There has been some progress, but just as you noted. Poor families think that more children will promote their economic circumstances. That is particularly true of farm families. Then, when they are forced off the farms, they are in a world of hurt and have lots of kids to support. Further, if they keep the farm, they have to divide it among the large family and small plots result that are not viable.

Again, I agree with you. As prosperity increases, family size goes down. This seems to be universal. Unfortunately, the prognosis for prosperity in Mexico is somewhat - or a lot - shaky unless the government gives up corruption, etc.


(This post was edited by dlyman6500 on Apr 4, 2007, 11:27 AM)


Septiembre


Apr 4, 2007, 10:50 AM

Post #10 of 67 (14200 views)

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Re: [dlyman6500] Prognostications

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Interesting thread. I seriously doubt we'll see a common currency in our lifetimes but freer trade is already in the cards. There's no way the U.S. can or would send the 10 million Mexicans NOB back--it would shut down many parts of the economy. I expect to see a continued movement NOB of younger SOB folks and a smaller but economically significant migration of older NOB folks to the south.

I would agree that corruption and socialistic thinking are definitely holding Mexico back. For example, look at the mismanagement of the government owned oil and electricity monopolies. Calderon has identified sky high electrical costs as one of the big drags on economic growth. The excessive tariffs at the border deter greater prosperity as well, not to mention the Texmex monopoly.

One of the things that no one takes into account is the impact that having millions of Mexicans exposed to a freer and less monopolistic society NOB and taking that exposure home with them. Although most keep a low profile, the growing expat community adds to that exposure as well. Their influence is often subtle (for example groups like Ajijic Limpio, Amigos del Lago) but there is going to be a rub off effect.

Dlyman is right on target when he states that both countries have much to gain from close cooperation. Without Mexico, the baby-busted NOB countries (Canada too) are going to face increasing labor shortages. Mexico badly needs the superior infrastructure technology of the NOB countries.


sfmacaws


Apr 4, 2007, 10:54 AM

Post #11 of 67 (14198 views)

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Re: [dlyman6500] Prognostications

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The main prognosis for reduced family size is the education and economic independence of women. Education for women has an enormous positive effect on societies, the drop in birth rate is one.


Jonna - Mérida, Yucatán




Septiembre


Apr 4, 2007, 11:02 AM

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Re: [sfmacaws] Prognostications

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Maybe but I sure hope the Mexicans can somehow avoid the breakdown in family structure that has occurred with "progress" NOB. One of the most refreshing things about the Mexican people is their love of family and their faith.


Bloviator

Apr 4, 2007, 11:45 AM

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Re: [Septiembre] Prognostications

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While you may be correct, you obviously haven't seen the young ladies who seem to have been turned over to Brittany Speers, etc. by their families to be raised - judging by their clothing and some of the attitudes displayed. It's probably too late to hope that they don't become polluted by US pop culture.

Unfortunately, also, part of the "love of family" is the beatings that macho Mexican men give their wives in the lower classes and the mistresses that are standard for those in the upper classes. Please, when you come to Mexico come without your rose colored glasses.

Also, the religion is not religion as you know it. It contributes to keeping the lower classes down, contributes to an unsustainable population growth, and prevents a lot of Mexicans from attaining any sort of savings or accumulation of wealth that could be used to better their lot in life.

It is admirable that they love their God (or Gods probably if one really analyzes what happens here in Mexico), but don't think it is any sort of religion with which you are familiar.


(This post was edited by dlyman6500 on Apr 4, 2007, 11:53 AM)


sfmacaws


Apr 4, 2007, 11:59 AM

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Re: [Septiembre] Prognostications

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Quote
Maybe but I sure hope the Mexicans can somehow avoid the breakdown in family structure that has occurred with "progress" NOB. One of the most refreshing things about the Mexican people is their love of family and their faith.


I'm sure this isn't what you meant but sometimes that sentiment is a way to disapprove of the increased equality, education and rights of women. If you have a virtual slave in the house who can't read and is completely dependent on you to survive along with being pregnant every year, it's nice to call it a "strong family environment". It's also common to bemoan the "loss of family values" as a euphemism for "women just don't know their place anymore".

I too like the committment to family that is part of Mexican culture but it certainly has its down sides as well. Domestic violence is astronomically high here and is not "only" men beating women, but kids as well. Rape and sexual abuse of children is also high, the meanings of what is acceptable are changing but they are still quite different than we are used to. I sometimes think that a "commitment to family" for uneducated women is often really the fact that they see zero other options.


Jonna - Mérida, Yucatán




Bubba

Apr 4, 2007, 12:20 PM

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Re: [sfmacaws] Prognostications

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Rape and violence against women is of epidemic proportions in Chiapas. It is accepted. It is expected. It is especially bad among the indigenous as is rampant alcoholism and alcohol related violence among the men toward each other and toward their women in the most cowardly fashion. They also severely beat those kids you see selling chiclets on the street if they don´t sell their quota.

Women in the south are encouraged by their families as well as their boyfriends and spouses to remain ignorant and pregnant and to toil at endless tasks. They are discouraged from even thinking about birth control techniques and, among the poorer classes, often get pregnant as soon physically possible.

Sort of reminds me of The Sopranos episode where one goon warns another whose girlfriend is his sister, " If you ever beat my sister again, I´ll kill you. You want to beat her, give her your name first."

I don´t think we need to idealize the Mexican family environment.


(This post was edited by Bubba on Apr 4, 2007, 12:21 PM)


bunny

Apr 4, 2007, 12:39 PM

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Re: [sfmacaws] Prognostications

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When I moved to Mexico as a single mother, with two small children, I had trepidations about how we would be accepted in such a "strong family environment." I was a bit worried about how I might be forced to account for myself. And it's true, the first question people seem to ask is "Where is your husband?" But when the person asking the question is a woman, and I answer "Soy una mama soltera," I'd say 9 times out of 10 the woman (especially if it's an older woman) responds with a conspiratorial look and says something like, "Que bueno!"

That said, I should also add that the young dads at my kids' (private) school are enthusiastic and thoughtful parents, very involved, and not as macho as perhaps their fathers might have been. I would like to think that they are the future.

Gretchen


Papirex


Apr 4, 2007, 1:02 PM

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Re: [dlyman6500] Prognostications

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“Also, the religion is not religion as you know it. It contributes to keeping the lower classes down, contributes to an unsustainable population growth, and prevents a lot of Mexicans from attaining any sort of savings or accumulation of wealth that could be used to better their lot in life.

It is admirable that they love their God (or Gods probably if one really analyzes what happens here in Mexico), but don't think it is any sort of religion with which you are familiar.”
*******************************************************************
Where did you get these goofy ideas at Dick? The Catholic Church does not take any position on temporal matters. It does not hold anyone back from improving his or her lot in life. It does not tithe or extract any money in any way from the parishioners; all donations are voluntary. Accumulating wealth and savings are a personal matter, and not a responsibility of the Church.

It is refreshing to learn that lower class American men do not beat their wives, and that wealthy upper class American men do not keep mistresses.

The Catholic Church in México is the same faith that I pledged my fealty to as an adult 51 years ago. To become a convert as an adult, you do not simply walk into a Catholic Church and sign up. You must attend classes for several months to learn about the religion you are about to embrace, and our relationship with other faiths.

Before, and after I became a Catholic, I have heard many non-Catholics tell me many terrible, and untrue things about the things I supposedly believe in, or practice. People that have never set foot in a Catholic Church or talked to a priest or that have any real knowledge of my faith always say them.

I have also heard Catholics say terrible things about other faiths, Mormons, Jews, Baptists, Islam, etc. They too, are so ill informed that they don’t realize that they are our brothers too.

People all find God in their own way. Non-Catholic churches are all over México now. The members of those denominations call themselves “Christians.” They do not usually name their denominations. If a person identifies himself or herself as a Christian in México, they are saying that they are not a Catholic.

I’m not calling you a bigot, Dick, but I think the information you posted is flawed. If it isn’t flawed, then I think some in depth explanations and attributions are in order.

Rex
"The supreme happiness of life is the conviction that we are loved" - Victor Hugo


Bubba

Apr 4, 2007, 2:01 PM

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Re: [RexC] Prognostications

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The Catholic Church does not take any position on temporal matters

Rex is not living in the same Mexico Bubba is living in and Dick has some good points. However, I have, upon reflection, decided not to comment further and have erased most of my post on the subject . I do, however, predict further civil strife in Southern Mexico arising from land disputes which, in turn, arise from religious strife between catholics and protestants. So be it.


(This post was edited by Bubba on Apr 4, 2007, 2:19 PM)


Georgia


Apr 4, 2007, 2:32 PM

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Re: [sfmacaws] Hold on there....

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... about the women thing. Yeah, just like in the good ole US of A men beat their wives. (I used to be one of those attorneys who showered two times daily because I had to appear a lot in family court.) But, let me tell you, in the small towns of Mexico, etc. it is the WOMEN whol hold the purse strings, and they hold them very tight.

There is a cultural background thing to the mistress among higher classes, all wrapped up with the BVM (Blessed Virgin Mary for those who are uninitiated) and semi-arranged marriages. Some women prefer it that way. Others loathe it. We all make the beds we lie in. The same mentality holds true for two very prosperous nations, Italy and Spain. In the US they do serial monogamy, which breaks up families. Is that better or worse? Who will be the judge here? Not I. Do I like it? No But I do understand it.


Georgia


Apr 4, 2007, 2:39 PM

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Re: [RexC] Prognostications

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I don't think dlyman's comment had to do with giving money to the church, but instead the church's opposition to birth control and the encourage for the propogation of the faith through the maintenance of many children.

And I definitely, as a Catholic, do find the practice of catholicism in Mexico to be very intermingled with the precolombian religions, which I sometimes find inspiring, sometimes appalling, and sometimes amusing.

But whatever you do, don't mess with my Virgin of Guadalupe. Taboo.


Papirex


Apr 4, 2007, 3:06 PM

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Re: [Bubba] Prognostications

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Bubba, The fact that some priests and even some Bishops have tolerated the practices you describe does not mean that those practices are a part of Catholic dogma. I am aware that those things do exist. Those practices are tolerated, not encouraged, and they are not accepted by The Vatican.

If you read the international press, you will see that some bishops in México have been dismissed from their posts for tolerating them.

IMHO Chiapas is a basket case. It won’t get any better until The Mexican Army goes in and does what it should have done in 1994. The conflict there was not started about religion, but it started as a move for indigenous rights. The man under the hood has managed to muck things up pretty thoroughly. (Rafael Guillen)

http://www.guardian.co.uk/international/story/0,3604,859047,00.html

You are right that we live in different Méxicos. As the saying goes, all news is local. Several members of my wife’s family have left the Catholic Church and become Christians. Nobody is being persecuted for that where we live. One of my suegra's life long friends is a very nice Jewish lady. No one gives a thought to her religion. She is just a nice person.

One of my daughters in California left The Catholic faith a few years ago and joined a protestant sect. I am happy for her; she has a good faith that she believes in. Contrary to popular “stories” the doctrine of the Catholic Church does not dictate that a good person must be a Catholic, or a Christian to enter Heaven when life is finished.

Land is another matter. Crimes are being committed all over the Republic over land all the time. You may need those deadbolts.

Rex


"The supreme happiness of life is the conviction that we are loved" - Victor Hugo


wendy devlin

Apr 4, 2007, 3:53 PM

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Re: [RexC] Prognostications

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Mexico has often been called, among the most 'Catholic' of countries in the world today.

To my way of thinking, a prognostication would be that this state will generally continue. Especially if you spot a 'el hogar es catholico' sticker on the door:)

However every faith that is anywhere, is also in México.
Even Muslims in Chiapas. And I've seen at least one large 'New Age' Temple.

Personally would hope that the nation in general practices religious tolerance as have a perception that there is a tradition of tolerance in many places/people.

However have found over time, that generally the same kinds of people exist everywhere.

If perhaps we saw each other as brother(sister:) instead of 'other' in the hateful negative context...

However still harbor an influence, that there is a 'Territorial Imperative', and all that implies, alive and well among so-called 'modern' people.

And we'll be duking it out,(hopefully not 'nuking' it out) for some time to come.


(This post was edited by wendy devlin on Apr 4, 2007, 4:36 PM)


Bloviator

Apr 4, 2007, 4:06 PM

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Re: [RexC] Prognostications

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Rex - I stand behind what I said in my original posting, but do not necessarily stand behind the things you indicate I said that I didn't.

The Catholic Church has been an important influence in Mexico for a long time. Some of it has been very good and some has been unfortunate. Mexicans must agree as they have had major disagreements over the role of the church in national life and their Constitution specifically limits the role of the Church.

I said nothing about the Catholic Church involvement in temporal matters. In fact, I said nothing about the Catholic Church except that it is different in Mexico and not like the Church elsewhere and that being Catholic has held back many in Mexico.

Perhaps the Church nowadays has less involvement in day-to-day life, but one only has to go back to the Christeros wars to point out a very important involvement of the Church in the temporal life of the nation. True, most of the involvement was by individual priests not the organized Church, but it tore the country apart for a long period.

One of the prime reasons I say that religion keeps poor Mexicans down is that poor Mexican Catholics devote much of their income to various celebrations and ceremonies, many of which are only vaguely relating to the Catholic religion. I had not even considered donations, but I'm sure they also contribute to keeping the poor from improving their financial lot in life. Having been to several such celebrations and seen the cost that is involved, I have real concern about how they effect not just the individual, but whole families financially.

I'm sure such contributions and fetes are voluntary (though customs and precedent are powerful instigators that really do limit the voluntary aspect somewhat - look at the power birthdays NoB and how families feel obligated to stage grand extravaganzas for their little dears.) but regardless, they do keep the poor from advancing financially. They may help their spiritual life immensely and therefore may be totally worthwhile, but they do cost a lot for people so poor.

I said nothing about US people beating their wives or having mistresses. I'm sure that happens, but has nothing to do with the topic at hand. It is an unfortunate fact of life in Mexico and has been going on for a long time as mentioned by several other posters and in any history or social commentary of Mexico that you might read.

I really don't want to get into a major discussion about the Catholic faith. I respect your beliefs and am definitely not a bigot. I hope that has come through loud and clear throughout my participation in the forum.

Again, much of your posting refers to your beliefs and how people who don't understand them say things about them that are not true. I did not say anything about the Catholic faith or the beliefs of that faith. I make no claim to expertise in that area.


(This post was edited by dlyman6500 on Apr 4, 2007, 4:20 PM)


Papirex


Apr 4, 2007, 5:15 PM

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Re: [dlyman6500] Prognostications

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Dick, I accept your explanations, and I offer my apologies if it appeared that I thought you were a bigot. I don’t believe that.

At virtually all of the religious festivals I have been to here, they don’t seem to have much to do with my religion to me. They seem to be more about having fun than they do about faith. They usually pass the hat for contributions from the people attending them, or watching the parades, etc. on the sidewalks (if there are any.) I don’t have any idea if those contributions cover the full cost of the festivities.

It is notable to me that many tourists coming to México often ask when carnival (a temporal term) or any festivals will occur. I believe that a lot of the “religious” festivals here are inspired mostly by a desire to increase tourism.

The Cristo wars were started by the government in an effort to stamp out religious practices in México. There might have been some perceived justification for them because of the past practices of the Church as a de facto part of the government, opposition to the revolution, and support of many undesirable things, such as the hacienda system.

I think progress for tolerance is increasing here, although it will be a long journey to achieve full tolerance. When Doris and I were first married, and I made my first trip to meet her family, I was asked by many people what religion I believed in, just as Wendy Devlin was. Even though I am a Catholic, I resented those questions. When I meet someone for the first time now, the subject of religion never comes up.

There is hope.

Rex






"The supreme happiness of life is the conviction that we are loved" - Victor Hugo


Septiembre


Apr 4, 2007, 5:24 PM

Post #25 of 67 (14057 views)

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Re: [dlyman6500] Prognostications

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This thread is exactly why this is my favorite Mexico board, hands down. Fascinating discussion! Thanks to all!!
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