Forums  > Areas > Jalisco's Lake Chapala Region
Lake Level?




RickS


Aug 2, 2010, 7:05 PM

Views: 15455

Lake Level?

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So how are this summer's rains affecting the level of the lake?



tonyburton


Aug 2, 2010, 8:07 PM

Views: 15423

Re: [RickS] Lake Level?

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The lake is currently at cota (level) 95.65.
This puts it at about 69.19% of capacity, with a volume of 5.464 millions cubic meters.
It is still rising, and is expected by National Water Commission officials to exceed cota 96, and possibly get close to 97 before the rainy season is over.



stevebrtx

Aug 3, 2010, 5:04 AM

Views: 15394

Re: [tonyburton] Lake Level?

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You can track the weather at http://chapalaweather.net/ and there is also a CEA link on the page.



johanson


Aug 3, 2010, 6:02 AM

Views: 15387

Re: [tonyburton] Lake Level?

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Tony, you will be happy to learn that it's even higher. As of yesterday using the CONAQUA link provided on the weather link above, the level is all the way up to 65.95 . We are some 32 days ahead of where we were when it went so high two years ago. Things look really great for a high lake level.

Check out the following link http://ceajalisco.gob.mx/...amiento/Chapala.html The government experts who are the first to admit that their projections could be off suggest we may see a high of 67.8 (cota)


(This post was edited by johanson on Aug 3, 2010, 8:26 AM)



RickS


Aug 3, 2010, 10:45 AM

Views: 15335

Re: [johanson] Lake Level?

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"...the level is all the way up to 65.95."

Should that be 95.95?

And par favor give me a 'visual' reference.... like about where is it around the Ajijic pier?



tashby


Aug 3, 2010, 11:29 AM

Views: 15325

Re: [RickS] Lake Level?

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Near the Ajijic pier, it's advanced quite a bit in the last couple of weeks. I've been watching. It's getting pretty close to halfway between the Tequila Republic restaurant on the pier, and the Old Posada.

The water isn't as high as it was a couple of years ago when it was lapping at what was then Roberto's Restaurant (now Yve's).....but it's on its way!


(This post was edited by tashby on Aug 3, 2010, 2:12 PM)



johanson


Aug 3, 2010, 12:57 PM

Views: 15304

Re: [RickS] Lake Level?

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Rick, you are so right. The # is not 65.9 but 95.9 , with a possible high in the high 97s sorry about that



RickS


Aug 3, 2010, 3:12 PM

Views: 15287

Re: [tonyburton] Lake Level?

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I realize that the lake level conversations may be 'old hat', but....

Recalling that a couple of years ago (2008) the lake got 'real high'. And, according to the chart that Pete posted, the highest point was 'only' cota 96.72. It 'may' get to 97 this rainy season some are saying.

My question is this: if 95.65 is about 69.19% capacity (how can 'about' be taken to 2 decimal points!?!) then cota 96.72 two years ago would be about 70% (if in fact level and capacity are linear). If 70% two years ago was lapping more or less at the steps of the Old Posada at the pier, then 'where will we put the remaining 30% of capacity'?

What is the 'capacity' figure based on and is it a antiquated measurement (because obviously 100% might put the waterfront somewhere around Ocampo!)?

I'm just saying Jim Bentien might like to know....



chinagringo


Aug 3, 2010, 3:30 PM

Views: 15281

Re: [RickS] Lake Level?

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As long as you are speculating - what will happen if the following proves to be true:

"Informador.com.mx published an article on the 23rd saying CONAGUA is predicting
the Lake may reach 97.80M, a level not seen since 1978. If this happens, it will
be 1.08M (42") over the 2008 high, or 1.8M (71") over current level. As some of you
remember in 2008 the water was at the edge of downtown, 3' more would put it "in" town."

Just how much infringement on the lakeshore has occurred in the 32 years since 1978?

Regards,
Neil
Albuquerque, NM




tonyburton


Aug 3, 2010, 4:18 PM

Views: 15266

Re: [RickS] Lake Level?

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Over the years, yes, there have been several different values of "full".
The current definition is based on a cota of 97.8; the highest level ever recorded was 99.38.
As an aside, when the lake was low during the 1980s and 1990s, the National Water Commission arbitrarily changed "full" to cota 94.9 (volume of about 4,500 million cubic meters). Coincidentally, this change was made only a matter of weeks before a meeting in Guadalajara of the Heads of State of most countries in the Americas, and authorities were able to boast about a lake at 70%+ of its capacity. I remember this period well (shows how old I am) because I was the first to point out in the press the manipulation of statistics involved.
Finally, yes, if the lake reaches even close to the modern definition of "full", considerable areas of several lakeside settlements will be under water. There's a reason why older houses were built with a big step up from the road...



mexliving

Aug 3, 2010, 4:21 PM

Views: 15261

Re: [tonyburton] Lake Level?

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i am placing some sand bags as you read this on my front yard...... just kidding....



arbon

Aug 3, 2010, 6:54 PM

Views: 15248

Re: [tonyburton] Lake Level?

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Tony, what are the elevations at the pumped outlet at St Nicolas and the natural river outlet at Ocotlan?

The outlet at Ocotlan into the Rio Grande de Santiago would control the Max' lake level, Eh?
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~




Datarecoverysoftware

Aug 4, 2010, 5:47 AM

Views: 15217

Re: [RickS] Lake Level?

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It should be 96%. We need to stop taken water from the lake.


Antwan
Data recovery services



tonyburton


Aug 4, 2010, 7:32 AM

Views: 15201

Re: [arbon] Lake Level?

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The outlet at San Nicolas is well under current lake level (otherwise they wouldn't be able to pump any water!); this was true for almost the entire time, even when the lake level was low.
The natural river outlet at Ocotlan no longer fully controls the outlet (along the River Santiago) since that river is dammed a relatively short distance downstream from the lake (and height of the dam therefore is a partial control as well).
Bear in mind also, that the Santiago does not have a very large channel cross-section, so discharge along the Santiago would necessarily be limited.
Given that the lake level has reached cota 99.38 previously, it certainly has the potential to do so again.
Finally, cota levels have only been recorded since the early part of the 20th century, and we know from oral and written accounts that the lake has certainly reached higher levels on several previous occasions.



tonyburton


Aug 4, 2010, 7:42 AM

Views: 15195

Re: [RickS] Lake Level?

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RockS; sorry, I missed your question about height/volume relationship.
It is not a linear relationship, since the lake area increases (and not in an entirely regular fashion) as lake level increases. The area occupied depends on the land heights, and for example, the huge area at the eastern end of the lake which was amputated at the start of the 20th century is flooded very rapidly compared with areas like the "north shore".
The volume at the highest level recorded (cota 99.38) was about 9.721 million cubic meters.
By a lucky coincidence, cota 90.00 marks the point where the lake is essentially empty, with an estimated volume of only 0.000475 million cubic meters of water.
At any point in time, it is easy to work out the approximate average depth. It will always be slightly less than the difference between cota 90.00 and the actual cota. Hence, right now, it is approximately 6.5 meters.



Gringal

Aug 4, 2010, 9:03 AM

Views: 15169

Re: [tonyburton] Lake Level?

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This morning's eyeball report from Ajijic pier:

Piles of lirio blown in last night: truck with workers came in collecting it.
Level nearly to pitiful boat floating, if it floats.
Outer wall below walkway covered; birds walking on it.
Lower pier at end of Tequila joint almost inundated.

Big clouds: beautiful morning. Ole !



chinagringo


Aug 15, 2010, 9:03 AM

Views: 14910

Re: [RickS] Lake Level?

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Rick:

You asked for recent photos and I found these taken this past week in Ajijic:
http://expatsmexico.setbb.com/...-malecone-t2549.html
Regards,
Neil
Albuquerque, NM




Georgia


Aug 18, 2010, 7:52 AM

Views: 14737

Re: [Gringal] Lake Level?

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I am at the west end of the lake, in the municipality of Jocotepec. Two years ago the lake went past the new malecon and flooded the picnic area behind the malecon for months. It also flooded the sewage treatment plant and CETAC, the technical high school near the plant. If, indeed, we do get to the levels of 1978 that area will be entirely under water. At one point in 1978 thewaves were splashing the back walls of my house. Our back yard is about 2.5 meters above the lake floor here at the west end. So, when they report that this year's levels may reach those of 1978 it worries me. Time to raise the sea wall behind our house and get out the sandbags!



Hound Dog

Aug 18, 2010, 12:01 PM

Views: 14692

Re: [Georgia] Lake Level?

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Our back yard is about 2.5 meters above the lake floor here at the west end. So, when they report that this year's levels may reach those of 1978 it worries me. Time to raise the sea wall behind our house and get out the sandbags!

Well, Georgia, mi amiga:

Does this mean that, if the lake intrudes upon your property, your digs become federal land and Dawg and his bride, as newly christened "inmigrados" can move in to your upper floors and settle in there until our home in Ajijic, which has no second floor and is also getting awfully near the lake front, is no longer inundated? I was just down to the beach at the Ajijic malecon and noted that the beach paths upon which I only recently walked my princess daily is now underwater and the lake is lapping at the base of the earth berm upon which the malecon is constructed.

If you end up residing in your mirador before this is all over, keep an eye out for our makeshift raft sailing in from Ajijic with two geezers and three dogs on board. We´ll bring along a case of tuna fish tins, Saltines and a supply of Tabasco to see us through for a few months. Thanks in advance for your hospitality.



Hound Dog

Aug 18, 2010, 12:07 PM

Views: 14689

Re: [Datarecoverysoftware] Lake Level?

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It should be 96%. We need to stop taken water from the lake.

As a Lakeside homeowner living quite close to today´s lakefront even at the current level and with about six weeks of rainy season to go, allow me to paraphrase the late, great Henny Youngman:

"Take my water, please."



Georgia


Aug 18, 2010, 12:26 PM

Views: 14682

Re: [Hound Dog] Lake Level?

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Forget the tuna. Bring rum and tequila. Also lots of happy pills for the dogs. We have acquired, in addition to our two Golden Retrievers, what appears to be a dog who escaped from a traveling circus. He is small, but takes on all manner of four legged creatures as if they were invading Huns. He is also quite agile and can scale cement and/or brick walls and leap across our swimming pool, climb trees, and jump up onto my husband's shoulders, clear five foot fences from a dead start and generally create mayhem. You're on your own where this dog is concerned, other than that c'mon down.

Two years ago I was standing on our wall at the back of the property looking at the lake when I was splashed by a wave that crested over the wall. Considering that when we purchased our property there was no lake behind us, this was all very amazing. We haven't seen our federal zone concession in years. Used to have horses, pigs, chickens, ducks, etc. plus fields of alfalfa back there. Beyond that was a dirt road that farm vehicles used to get to their fields.

Now, as to the raft: is it up to Mexican building codes for rafts? We can have any riff raff rafts around here in exclusive downtown El Chante.



esperanza

Aug 18, 2010, 4:12 PM

Views: 14636

Re: [Georgia] Lake Level?

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"Look, we're passing Martinique
Regularly once a week,
Like Kon Tiki we
Sail over the sea
The riff raff refugee..."
--lyric from a Leonard Sillman song, New Faces

http://www.mexicocooks.typepad.com










tashby


Aug 18, 2010, 4:45 PM

Views: 14632

Re: [Gringal] Lake Level?

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Quote
Level nearly to pitiful boat floating, if it floats.


I'm not going to guarantee that thing floats....but there's definitely water underneath it as of today.

Could be re-barred into the earth from underneath for all I know. In fact, just yesterday I came across an old photo from 2008 when the water was so high, and there was that boat. Same boat same spot but the water had adjusted its position, slightly. Inferior rebar, perhaps.



Georgia


Aug 18, 2010, 4:53 PM

Views: 14626

Re: [esperanza] Lake Level?

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And to think I sold my kayak before moving here. My only option had been to put it on our defunct dock and title it "Esperanza" .... but it went at the yard sale!!



Gringal

Aug 18, 2010, 7:42 PM

Views: 14592

Re: [Georgia] Lake Level?

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As of today, if it could float, it would.

The thing is..............we have a serious lake here and one must remember that at one time, the mountains were its only limit. Scary? a little.



Georgia


Aug 18, 2010, 7:53 PM

Views: 14396

Re: [Gringal] Lake Level?

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The big difference is that now Guadalajara has a population of over 6 million people. Guad can draw off as much water as it needs to and it still won't be enough. Right now there are limits on what it can draw down. In a crisis, I assume they could draw down even more.



Gringal

Aug 19, 2010, 8:01 AM

Views: 14370

Re: [Georgia] Lake Level?

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Very true. I was being a bit facetious about the mountains being the lake limits.

Re the massive building projects that have been going on near Joco.....do you know what they are doing about sewage and water there? I can guess about the water.



Georgia


Aug 19, 2010, 9:35 AM

Views: 14350

Re: [Gringal] Lake Level?

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Actually, eons ago this lake stretched far beyond the mountains and through the valleys all the way to Guadalajara. It was vast.
As to the building: to my knowledge there has been no plan made for infrastructure. CFE doesn't even have meters for the houses. Guess who's picking up that bill. They did purchase the well that was to have served El Chante. But the current wastewater treatment plant can barely handle what was already in place much less an addiitonal load.
They'd rather ask forgtiveness than permission.



Gringal

Aug 19, 2010, 3:11 PM

Views: 14318

Re: [Georgia] Lake Level?

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...and yet, they're selling the units to the unsuspecting, probably with "promises, promises".

There must a special circle in hell for that type.



Georgia


Aug 19, 2010, 3:51 PM

Views: 14309

Re: [Gringal] Lake Level?

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People were paid off to change the use of the area. Most of the purchasers are weekenders and/or holiday users from Guadalajara. So, ask yourselves, how many of you asked where the poop goes when you flush when you bought your houses down here? In the meanwhile, fortunately the use is only occasional. When it is all going to hit the fan is during Christmas vacations and Easter vacations. Actually, I don't think it's the fan that will be hit but the lake.



Hound Dog

Aug 19, 2010, 5:38 PM

Views: 14298

Re: [Georgia] Lake Level?

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Georgia writes:

Actually, eons ago this lake stretched far beyond the mountains and through the valleys all the way to Guadalajara. It was vast.

If I am not mistaken, Georgia, what is now Lake Chapala once was one with the recently dried up Lake Sayula and was, as you suggested, a vast lake indeed.

I remember a few years ago when we first got here and there were local naysayers predicting the demise of Lake Chapala - an occurrence which these prognosticators had taking place before 2010, and, in turn, this was to presage the end of our pleasant valley as we know it which would then suffer from severely negative climatological changes that would bring about colder and hotter seasons and a parching of once fecund agricultural lands.

Those predictions reminded me of that locally famous book about Ajijic and Lake Chapala written under the nom de plume Dane Chandos in the 1940s when the author(s) owned a hotel on the lake. I think it was called A PLACE IN THE SUN or something like that. During the course of their tale, They had taken a motor trip from Lake Chapala past Lake Sayula in the early 1940s to some destination I can´t recall and, while passing Lake Sayula, reflected upon the fact that the lake was drying up and reputed to be on its way to becoming a dry lakebed in a few years which would result in the ruination of the hugely productive agricultural region surrounding the lake in those days. Well, Lake Sayula did, in fact, dry up and today is a vast salt bed strtching as far as the eye can see from the Guadalajara-Colima Autopista and, here, some 70 years later, the area surrounding the dry Sayula lakebed remains a vibrant and important agricultural region for Mexico despite the lake´s demise. So much for prescience as a tool for discerning future events.

Your comment, Georgia, about the disposition of copious amounts of untreated or partially treated human poop on major holidays after our newly constructed vacation villages fronting the lake just west of El Chante are completed and fully occupied with Tapatio weekenders and holiday makers, seems cogent to me. I have no idea what may come of the lake when these thousands of toilets are flushed during holiday merrymaking, but I am reminded of that old 1960s Steve McQueen movie, The Blob, where a radioactive blob of gump took over a whole town starting with the local movie theatre and proceeded to turn people into ,helpless dung beetles slithering about in agony and dying by the score and that´s what may be in store for us a few years down the line. Just so you´ll know, since you were kind enough to offer us a place to stay in El Chante if our Ajijic home should become one with the lake, I hereby extend an invitation to you and your family to stay in our guest bedroom at San Cristóbal safely residing some 1,500 kilometers southeast of the lake until a latter day Steve McQueen figures out a way to destroy this monster as it works its way up the lakefront intent on gobbling up Chapala after determining that there was nothing worth gobbling up in Jocotepec after it inadvertently slithered upon Roca Azul and quickly reversed course since everything there was already dead and provided no meaningul nutrition.


(This post was edited by Hound Dog on Aug 19, 2010, 5:42 PM)



Georgia


Aug 19, 2010, 6:26 PM

Views: 14282

Re: [Hound Dog] Lake Level?

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Dearest Dawg,
1. Prepare the raft.
2. Be aware that I have 10 children and 10 grandchldren, so when you invite me and my family you are inviting an entire pueblo.
3. Re: Steve McQueen movie: lay off the tequila for a day or two.

But do feel free to bring your lovely bride and moth eaten hounds down here in the raft in the event of Armageddon.



chinagringo


Aug 20, 2010, 1:54 PM

Views: 14226

Re: [RickS] Lake Level?

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For Rick who requested a "visual" - Steve Brown, who posts under "stevebrtx" and maintains the Lake Chapala Weather Net took these photos on August 17th. Click on the link below to go to a slideshow:
http://www.flickr.com/...57624644167207/show/
Regards,
Neil
Albuquerque, NM




esperanza

Aug 20, 2010, 4:08 PM

Views: 14204

Re: [chinagringo] Lake Level?

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Gorgeous photos, thanks for the post. Like some other Mexconnect folks, I was at Lake Chapala when you literally could see only a tiny silver ribbon of water in the far distance, almost like a mirage. It's really a miracle to see the lake like this.

http://www.mexicocooks.typepad.com










chinagringo


Aug 23, 2010, 5:30 PM

Views: 14082

Re: [chinagringo] Lake Level?

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If you go to:
http://chapalaweather.net/

Steve has now put a link not only to the new Lake Chapala photos but also to two aerial photos (not known when taken since dates are not accurate) that provide a great visual of how bad the Lake was. You will find the links directly below the Live Weather Cam window. Or, you can click on the links below:
http://chapalaweather.net/chapala1.jpg
http://chapalaweather.net/chapala2.jpg
Regards,
Neil
Albuquerque, NM




stevebrtx

Aug 27, 2010, 7:24 AM

Views: 13953

Re: [chinagringo] Lake Level?

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Just added a video link to a waterspout west of Ajijic June 24th, compliments of Todd Miller.
http://www.chapalaweather.net/


(This post was edited by stevebrtx on Aug 27, 2010, 7:27 AM)



lucky

Aug 28, 2010, 3:18 AM

Views: 13859

Re: [stevebrtx] Lake Level?

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i currently live on the southside of the lake in san cristobal zapotitlan, which is basically across from the western end of san juan cosala. here are a couple of pictures to show you how much higher the lake is this year than last year. the first picture was taken in early september of 2009 from my backyard. the second picture was taken a few days ago from basically the same spot.

by the way, that white tub in the second picture is part of a trashcan from the san cristobal malecon, which is four backyards to my east. it floated over into my backyard a couple of weeks ago. i can't remove it because the ground out there is saturated and walking on it is like walking on quicksand.










stevebrtx

Sep 1, 2010, 8:48 AM

Views: 13730

Re: [lucky] Lake Level?

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With last night's rain we went over our expected annual average of 33.5" - so, everything from here to year's end is gravy. Will be interesting to see what the lake does, seems to be stuck at 96.48 for the last few days.



chinagringo


Sep 3, 2010, 7:05 AM

Views: 13638

Re: [stevebrtx] Lake Level?

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Courtesy of "stevebrtx" - some new photos taken on Sept. 2 of the Lake and the new Hole in One restaurant, that is garnering good reviews for their special menu on weekends:

http://www.flickr.com/...57624866001674/show/
Regards,
Neil
Albuquerque, NM




RickS


Sep 4, 2010, 4:52 PM

Views: 13554

Re: [chinagringo] Lake Level?

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A noticeable difference between these photos and the ones Steve took on August 17! Specifically, the one of the 'steps' just to the west of the Ajijic pier show that one whole step is now under water.... maybe 4-5 inches more water at that point. One more step and it's into the street.



stevebrtx

Sep 5, 2010, 1:30 PM

Views: 13506

Re: [RickS] Lake Level?

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That seemed a good "measuring stick" to check. I figure at 2008 level it would be about the top of the steps. Now, if Conagua's prediction actually came true, add 1 meter? I think that little "slew" is actually a drainage from Colon St. They've now piled a bit of sand at the actual lakefront to keep waves from washing back up there, so will be interesting to follow, but I'm watering plants again, no rain for several days.



simpsca

Sep 6, 2010, 7:13 AM

Views: 13448

Re: [RickS] Lake Level?

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Many years back when the Chapala municipal building was the old Hotel Niko there were photos on the wall of the area. And there were photos of Lake Chapala lapping over the top of the Chapala pier and the train station was badly flooded. I don't know where those photos went when the hotel closed.



chinagringo


Sep 6, 2010, 7:30 AM

Views: 13441

Re: [simpsca] Lake Level?

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I just found two sites with some old photos of Lake Chapala and Chapala. Some of the photos in these links may be some of the ones that simpsca may have been referring to:

http://www.lake-chapala.com/...-id-category-21.html

http://keelynet.com/mexico/index.html
Regards,
Neil
Albuquerque, NM




simpsca

Sep 6, 2010, 9:10 AM

Views: 13426

Re: [chinagringo] Lake Level?

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Yes, the second link especially with the photo that shows the water lever above the pier in Chapala used to be in the old Hotel Nido along with some of the others shown. I guess that was back in 1976.

When I arrived in 1999 we all thought the lake would eventually dry up, and Lake Cajatitlan did dry up for awhile. I guess the weather will always be cyclical here.



tashby


Sep 6, 2010, 9:19 AM

Views: 13421

Re: [chinagringo] Lake Level?

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Wow. Thanks for the links!