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jrpierce


Jun 13, 2011, 10:57 AM

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Letter From Mexico: Amid the Drug Wars, a Stunning Economic Boom

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This article is a nice summary of several trends many of you will have seen in other articles. While not every piece of this article is supported with documentation, it is certainly consistent with what I know of the data. I was especially interested in the perspective of comparing drug deaths with auto accident deaths in the US, and the ongoing (and historic) tendency of the US media to exaggerate Mexico's problems wildly.

For the best summary of the hard data on recent drug violence that I have seen, click on the link to the data on drug deaths vs. auto accident deaths.

http://newamericamedia.org/...ng-economic-boom.php
http://tinyurl.com/3mgqbck


Jim


(This post was edited by jrpierce on Jun 13, 2011, 11:11 AM)

YucaLandia


Jun 13, 2011, 11:17 AM

Post #2 of 40 (3444 views)

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Re: [jrpierce] Letter From Mexico: Amid the Drug Wars, a Stunning Economic Boom

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JR
What a wonderful article. We at Yucalandia plan to start selling tickets for the Cancun-Merida bullet train next week. Send cash or supply Visa, MasterCard, AMEX, Paypal information to reserve your seats now!

God Bless Optimists,
steve
-
Read-on MacDuff
E-visit at http://yucalandia.com

esperanza

Jun 13, 2011, 11:57 AM

Post #3 of 40 (3423 views)

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Re: [jrpierce] Letter From Mexico: Amid the Drug Wars, a Stunning Economic Boom

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Lovely article...but very, very little hard data. And most articles of this type are designed as puff pieces: i.e., look how well everything is going! You invest here, too!

The lived reality is quite a bit different from what the writer portrays. For example:
  • Un- and under-employment are up, not down: nearly half of Mexican workers work in the 'informal economy' and earn well below even Mexico's minimum wage.
  • The author writes, "Carstens is now being mentioned as a leading candidate to take over the International Monetary Fund after Dominique Strauss Kahn's abrupt resignation." Carstens has indeed been nominated, but he apparently is barely in the running.
  • "The result has been an invigoration of Mexico's middle class." The author does not mention how he substantiates this. My person-on-the-street view is that stores, banks, and other businesses have pushed the acquisition of credit cards; many people are living on this very expensive money. On the other hand, the presumably middle-class man who lived in my apartment until October owes well over 500,000MN on his various credit cards and bank loans. How do I know? The creditors call and knock on the door looking for him at all hours. I've seen the duns and listened to the money-chasers. He's not the only one in this situation!
  • "Where Americans can't find the money to fill in potholes, Mexico is accepting bids for a new, world-class airport along the 65-mile Cancun-Tulum corridor that is expected to serve 700,000 passengers its first year." Mexicans can't find money to fill in potholes, either. Ask anyone in any city or town. And "accepting bids" does not equal a done deal.
  • "The strength of Mexico's middle class can also be measured by the maturity of its democratic institutions." The author goes on to say various things about PAN and the PRD and their victories over the PRI. Big business PAN money elected Fox and Calderón, not the middle-class. PAN is all about big business, not about helping the little guy. The PRD headed Mexico City's government before Ebrard (the current head of government in the DF) was elected. Anybody remember who the former head of government was? He was head of government beginning in 2000. BOTH of these men have made huge strides in improving life in Mexico City. (Oops, answer to the question: Andrés Manuel López Obrador.
Those are just a few points that the writer either exaggerates or fails entirely to substantiate. It's a really well-written article and honestly makes me want to believe what it says--but careful, it's full of major holes.




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dongringo_catemaco


Jun 13, 2011, 12:34 PM

Post #4 of 40 (3410 views)

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Re: [esperanza] Letter From Mexico: Amid the Drug Wars, a Stunning Economic Boom

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Well said.

El Economista, sort of the Wall Street Journal of Mexico, has an excellent English columnist, who, within in a few columns, presents Mexico a lot better than any puff piece.
http://eleconomista.com.mx/focus-on-mexico
Visit Catemaco News


chinagringo


Jun 13, 2011, 2:58 PM

Post #5 of 40 (3377 views)

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Re: [jrpierce] Letter From Mexico: Amid the Drug Wars, a Stunning Economic Boom

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Most all of us with our varied interests in Mexico would certainly enjoy and appreciate positive press or positive reports. Many are quick to criticize the NOB media for their selective and often harsh reports on the situation in Mexico but we owe it to ourselves to also criticize when we run across a "fluff piece" of reporting or a positive report out of the Govt. with an agenda and questionable statements or data.

There are certainly positive aspects out there but either the media is often too lazy to do the research or there are those who have a need to "spin". Nothing positive, reporting wise, can come out of Mexico until someone does the work and has a total commitment to accuracy.
Regards,
Neil
Albuquerque, NM


eyePad

Jun 13, 2011, 8:51 PM

Post #6 of 40 (3286 views)

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Re: [esperanza] Letter From Mexico: Amid the Drug Wars, a Stunning Economic Boom

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Esperanza, I guess you are PRD but won't hold it against you. You point out some things I would agree with.
Maybe not of interest, but in the advanced economies of europe, Spain has ave bullet trains. But Spain also has 20% unemployment and in the youth sector it is more like 40%! (In my opinion why there have been acampadas since before the last election, especially in Madrid but in Barcelona there was violence)
apáñatelas como puedas


(This post was edited by eyePad on Jun 13, 2011, 8:52 PM)

esperanza

Jun 13, 2011, 9:47 PM

Post #7 of 40 (3272 views)

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Re: [eyePad] Letter From Mexico: Amid the Drug Wars, a Stunning Economic Boom

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Well, eyePad, I guess you have a crystal ball.

What I posted was just the facts: the author of the article wrote that folks couldn't have imagined in 2000 that politics in Mexico would be as they are in 2011. I simply pointed out that the PAN was elected to Los Pinos in 2000 and the PRD was elected to head the government of the DF that same year. Those two parties continue to hold those two offices today. Just saying...the writer was drawing some unsubstantiated conclusions.

It will be interesting to see which of the parties is elected in July 2012.




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Linda L. Flad

Jun 13, 2011, 10:22 PM

Post #8 of 40 (3270 views)

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Re: [esperanza] Letter From Mexico: Amid the Drug Wars, a Stunning Economic Boom

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Esperanza, You seem to know more than the New American Media, yet you refute the statements with your opinion and innuendo. Where are your facts and/or proof?
I have numbered your points for easy reference.
#1 Where is your "hard data" that un- and under-employment numbers are up? Yes, these are hard times for everyone around the world, but the author is looking at the over-all view of Mexico.
#2 Actually Carstens has good chance of leading the IMF. Most agree he would be the best. Who knows who will get the nod.
#3 You claim the author un-substantiates the "invigoration of Mexico's middle class," while your "person on the street" view is very singular, extremely myopic and very fearful. You tattletale on your Mexico neighbors with credit card bills, not knowing that the problem is much worse in the US. So bad, that in the US, you could add 2, 3 or 6 mortgages to that number owed to the credit cards. Have you heard of Florida?
#4 You have a point when you wrote, "Mexicans can't find money to fill in potholes, either." All city governments around the world are suffering. But the article stated that federally funded infrastructure is growing and, as you know, the highways of Mexico are rapidly improving.
#5 Yes "democratic institutions" suck. But, if you think the 3-party system in Mexico is bad, move back to the USA and try to deal with the two-party system. Then, throw in the Tee-Party! At least in Mexico, they can't be re-elected.
Mexico is not in as bad of shape as you think it is. Since you insist on thinking the worst, at least give us current facts, data or proof. You are welcome to express your opinion, but do not express your opinion as FACT.

RickS


Jun 14, 2011, 7:21 AM

Post #9 of 40 (3219 views)

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Re: [Linda L. Flad] Letter From Mexico: Amid the Drug Wars, a Stunning Economic Boom

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"#2 Actually Carstens has good chance of leading the IMF. Most agree he would be the best. Who knows who will get the nod."

I have no dog in this fight, but two thoughts. One is can you support with fact that "most agree he (Carstens) would be best"? I'm just saying....

The other thought, not to be confused with fact, is that France's Christine Lagarde will be the new leader of the IMF. While some would like to end Europe's grip on the IMF it just ain't gonna happen. Not at this point anyway. When politics is involved at this level, ability often takes a back seat.

Reefhound


Jun 14, 2011, 7:47 AM

Post #10 of 40 (3205 views)

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Re: [Linda L. Flad] Letter From Mexico: Amid the Drug Wars, a Stunning Economic Boom

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"#2 Actually Carstens has good chance of leading the IMF. Most agree he would be the best. Who knows who will get the nod. "

Actually, not even Carstens himself believes this, having described his own chances as "slim".


Carstens, Mexico’s central bank governor, yesterday said chances are “quite high” that Lagarde, France’s finance minister, will win. He said that he put his name forward in an effort to help emerging markets get the post in the future.

“I’m not fooling myself,” Carstens said in Washington after meeting with U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy F. Geithner. “It’s like starting a soccer game with a 5-0 score,” given Lagarde’s early front-runner status, he said.

“We emerging markets might take more than one round to get to the final position, but if we don’t start at some point, we will never get there,” he said. “Our intention is to raise the bar, also to invite emerging markets to be better coordinated in this process.”

http://www.bloomberg.com/...s-fischer-exits.html


esperanza

Jun 14, 2011, 7:52 AM

Post #11 of 40 (3203 views)

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Re: [RickS] Letter From Mexico: Amid the Drug Wars, a Stunning Economic Boom

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On Canal 22 news at 9PM last night, Adriana Pérez (the newscaster) reported that Carstens himself says that he is in the back of the pack for head of the IMF and is highly unlikely to be named to the post.

The person whose debts I mentioned is not my neighbor. He is the former tenant in the apartment where I currently live. He has left here leaving hundreds of thousands of pesos in unpaid bills, which leaves me in the position of answering dunning phone calls (the phone is in the landlady's name, but he gave the number as his own to his creditors), dunning bill collectors at the door, telegrams, URGENT letters from every bank in Mexico, etc. If I'd mentioned his name, I can see where the new poster (Linda) could be upset by the lack of confidentiality. But I didn't.

Here's my take on the difference between the linked article and my post: the article writer's opinions were written as if he were a knowledgeable professional and presented as facts in an article designed to be read by as much of the public as possible. He undoubtedly received pay for his article. I, on the other hand, post here just like the rest of us, with opinions based on my lived experience in Mexico, experience lived over the last 30+ years.

I spend a lot of time talking with ordinary Mexicans, folks on the street, in restaurants, taxi drivers, the guy riding the Metro, etc. I believe that the opinion of the person-on-the-street is important in that it gives me a bird's eye view of what the Mexican population really thinks. I've done these mini-interviews everywhere I've lived in Mexico, and everywhere I've visited: most recently, Mexico City, Morelia, Pátzcuaro, Uruapan, Guadalajara, San Miguel de Allende, and the pueblos in between those places. My friends in Mexico range from the neighbors in my building to the wife of the current governor of Michoacán and from the woman who runs the tiny working-class restaurant around the corner from my house to the owner of one of the most famous restaurants in the República. Included in my friendship circle here are people from every possible walk of life. Every one of my friends has an opinion about Mexico's current condition. The opinions that I offer are based on a common opinion that comes from all of those sources.

I apologize for giving the idea that my opinion was based solely on my personal experience; my opinion is collective and based on the opinions of many Mexican people. I don't have a clue what base the opinions (not the facts) in the linked article have.




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chinagringo


Jun 14, 2011, 9:33 AM

Post #12 of 40 (3171 views)

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Re: [jrpierce] Letter From Mexico: Amid the Drug Wars, a Stunning Economic Boom

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Since this article struck me as being what I would term a "fluff piece", I took a different approach by wondering if the author had other motives for writing the article. After a fair amount of research on the author, I have formulated an opinion but will refrain from postulating on those opinions. A number of links follow which should give those who may be interested a start. I would encourage looking deeper into some of this person's history on various expat forums to gain the "big picture".
http://www.google.com/...49US349&ie=UTF-8
http://www.google.com/...49US349&ie=UTF-8
http://www.yucatanliving.com/...out-louis-nevaer.htm
http://www.yucatanliving.com/...nevaer/Complaint.pdf
http://www.yucatanliving.com/.../StateCourtOrder.pdf
http://www.yucatanliving.com/...DefaultJudgement.pdf
Regards,
Neil
Albuquerque, NM


richmx2


Jun 14, 2011, 12:04 PM

Post #13 of 40 (3121 views)

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Re: [chinagringo] Letter From Mexico: Amid the Drug Wars, a Stunning Economic Boom

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OH MY! While the article mentioned by the original poster is probably unobjectionable (although we can question its facts and conclusions), let us just say the author has created some genuine controversies based on what seems to be either a personal vendetta against well-known journalists and social service providers in Mexico, and his reputation with some of us is not the best.

(and my bad... I'm on another poster's computer, and initially posted this under their account... I think I've got it straightened out!.


http://mexfiles.net
http://voiceofmexico.com
http://editorialmazatlan.com

arbon

Jun 14, 2011, 12:32 PM

Post #14 of 40 (3106 views)

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Re: [esperanza] Letter From Mexico: Amid the Drug Wars, a Stunning Economic Boom

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IMF shortlists Christine Lagarde and Agustin Carstens

Ms Lagarde is considered by many as the front runner for the post.

She is backed by the European Union and in recent days she has also won the support of Egypt, Indonesia, and the United Arab Emirates.

Mr Carstens has the support of Latin American countries.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~


jrpierce


Jun 14, 2011, 1:00 PM

Post #15 of 40 (3098 views)

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Re: [chinagringo] Letter From Mexico: Amid the Drug Wars, a Stunning Economic Boom

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Sometimes posting on a board like Mexconnect is like planting a seed for an unknown plant, then sitting back to see what it grows into. ;)

I viewed this article as a brief, non-scholarly summary of the situation in Mexico, admittedly with an optimistic spin--especially as to some planned development. As China Gringo surmised, I like to see such articles to counter the obsession of most of the US media with the drug wars as the defining event in Mexico.

I see most of the author's main points to be well supported by the facts. To wit:

1. The Mexican economy is enjoying robust growth, and no longer just tagging along with the US:
http://www.businessweek.com/news/2011-05-06/carstens-says-slack-in-mexico-economy-helps-check-inflation.html

2. Middle class resilience: Many articles in the business press mention a growing middle class in Mexico, often as reason for investments in Mexico. See for example: http://www.bloomberg.com/...xpand-in-mexico.html

A more scholarly article speaks about the three ways "middle class" is defined. By some measures Mexico's middle class is growing, by others it is remaining the same: http://www.americasquarterly.org/node/2152

To be sure as many authors point out, the middle class in much of Mexico is fragile, often based on the "informal economy" but given where it has come from, I think Mexico needs to make no excuses.

3. Carstens and IMF position. With the IMF saying there are two final candidates for the head of the IMF, and with everyone saying Lagarde is wired due to the politics--not necessarily because she is best qualified, I think having Mexico's Carstens as the other candidate on the short list should be a source of price for Mexico.

4. Maturity of Mexico's democratic institutions. Opinions may differ, but this article from the NY Times argues the latest elections speak to the strength of Mexico's democracy: http://www.nytimes.com/2010/07/06/world/americas/06mexico.html

5. Putting the narco violence into perspective: The report cited by the author is one of the best analyses of the recent data I've seen:
http://justiceinmexico.files.wordpress.com/...tbi-drugviolence.pdf

Bottom line, while some aspects of the article may be "fluff," I think his general themes are accurate. And while the author doesn't deal with nuances and details, that isn't the purpose of this type of article.

Now we learn the author is apparently not a nice guy. While interesting, Neil, and thus I'm cancelling my luncheon date with him ;), to me this does not impact on the thrust of the article.

Jim


(This post was edited by jrpierce on Jun 14, 2011, 1:03 PM)

arbon

Jun 14, 2011, 1:46 PM

Post #16 of 40 (3086 views)

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Re: [jrpierce] Letter From Mexico: Amid the Drug Wars, a Stunning Economic Boom

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"Maturity of Mexico's democratic institutions."

¿In the 2006 Mexican Federal election Calderón got less than 40% of the total/popular votes, how democratic is that?
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~


jrpierce


Jun 14, 2011, 2:08 PM

Post #17 of 40 (3074 views)

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Re: [arbon] Letter From Mexico: Amid the Drug Wars, a Stunning Economic Boom

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Arbon, I don't know much about that. It has sounded as though this is similar to the argument about whether Al Gore actually won the election in the USA. Could you point me to a good, unbiased article that explains it all? I'd appreciate it. Thanks,

Jim

arbon

Jun 14, 2011, 3:08 PM

Post #18 of 40 (3058 views)

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Re: [jrpierce] Letter From Mexico: Amid the Drug Wars, a Stunning Economic Boom

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http://en.wikipedia.org/...n_2006_controversies

1.3 Quick count.

PS...Al Gore was contending 50% + -
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~



(This post was edited by esperanza on Jun 14, 2011, 4:00 PM)

YucaLandia


Jun 14, 2011, 4:06 PM

Post #19 of 40 (3032 views)

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Re: [arbon] Letter From Mexico: Amid the Drug Wars, a Stunning Economic Boom

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In Reply To
"Maturity of Mexico's democratic institutions."

¿In the 2006 Mexican Federal election Calderón got less than 40% of the total/popular votes, how democratic is that?

Bill Clinton received less than 50% of the US vote in both of his Presidential election victories (43% & 49%). It does not take more than 50% of the vote to win in most "democratic" nations.

It's also worth noting that the author of the web-article in the OP created a number of fictions in his article, like the supposed bullet train, and the hyperbole of how the growth of a single tiny slice of the Yucatecan housing market somehow represents any truth about the broader Mexican economy. Common wisdom here is that the growth he touts, is actually just upper middle class refugees from other parts of Mexico affected by the ongoing Drug Wars. War refugees escaping dreadful conditions in one part of Mexico by moving to the 4'th poorest state in Mexico, hardly qualifies as a measure or barometer of robust economic health.
-
Read-on MacDuff
E-visit at http://yucalandia.com

(This post was edited by YucaLandia on Jun 14, 2011, 4:08 PM)

arbon

Jun 14, 2011, 6:07 PM

Post #20 of 40 (2996 views)

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Re: [YucaLandia] Letter From Mexico: Amid the Drug Wars, a Stunning Economic Boom

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You are talking about what is considered a Minority government in a democratic system.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~


mazbook1


Jun 14, 2011, 6:53 PM

Post #21 of 40 (2982 views)

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Re: [arbon] Letter From Mexico: Amid the Drug Wars, a Stunning Economic Boom

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arbon, you are correct when you say "You are talking about what is considered a Minority government in a democratic system," IF you are only speaking of parliamentary style democracies where the prime minister is the head of government. But in many, many democracies, U.S., México and many, many others where the president (head of government) is elected separately from the legislative body that is NOT true at all. Those countries never have a "minority government" as you style it.


(This post was edited by mazbook1 on Jun 14, 2011, 6:57 PM)

chinagringo


Jun 14, 2011, 7:04 PM

Post #22 of 40 (2970 views)

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Re: [arbon] Letter From Mexico: Amid the Drug Wars, a Stunning Economic Boom

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For one who has a history of coming from a parliamentary system, you seem to have a basic lack of understanding of the democratic system of government! Given that the parliamentary system often changes more time than most people change their underwear because of a basic destruction of their coalitions, why question any government that is elected with less than a majority?
Regards,
Neil
Albuquerque, NM


jrpierce


Jun 14, 2011, 7:05 PM

Post #23 of 40 (2970 views)

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Re: [YucaLandia] Letter From Mexico: Amid the Drug Wars, a Stunning Economic Boom

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Arbon, after reading article you cited, I was still confused about your point until your exchange above with Steve. I knew it was a hotly contested election with charges and counter charges about fraud, but the article seemed to say that in the final analysis Calderón did in fact win. But I'm with Steve that if one wins an election by a plurality rather than a majority, I still think if the election is conducted fairly and the country's constitution allows it.

Steve, I didn't take time to research those points, and have no personal knowledge about them. Thanks for clarifying those points. I find the notion that refugees from the wars in other parts of Mexico are fleeing to Mexico interesting and something I hadn't heard previously.

Jim

esperanza

Jun 14, 2011, 9:16 PM

Post #24 of 40 (2937 views)

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Re: [jrpierce] Letter From Mexico: Amid the Drug Wars, a Stunning Economic Boom

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Jim, when we were making our decision to move from Morelia to Mexico City, many, many of our Mexican friends reported to us that either they knew people who had moved to the DF for exactly the same reasons we were or they wanted to make the move themselves: to get out of the troubles that continue to be rife in Michoacán. Most of our friends couldn't make the move due to either business or family commitments that kept them--however reluctantly--in Michoacán.

Now that we are living in Mexico City, we have met an even greater number of Mexican people who have friends and relatives who have moved here from all over the country--all of them coming to the DF to get out of the troubles that plague other parts of Mexico, as well as Michoacán.

In case you aren't aware of the situation in Michoacán's Tierra Caliente (including Apatzingán and other, smaller towns), at least 2500 people have been living in shelters because they are afraid to live in their homes--all of this due to cartel violence. Here's a several-weeks-old link; the situation worsened since this news and many more people went into shelters. http://neglectedwar.com/blog/archives/5005.

A similar but likely worse situation has existed for some time in Ciudad Mier, in the state of Tamaulipas. That city has become all but a ghost town due to violence and threats of violence against its former residents. All of the people who have left have become refugees in other parts of Mexico. The link takes you to an admittedly dated article, but the situation in Ciudad Mier has not improved. http://www.themonitor.com/...residents-tamps.html




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jrpierce


Jun 14, 2011, 10:01 PM

Post #25 of 40 (2932 views)

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Re: [esperanza] Letter From Mexico: Amid the Drug Wars, a Stunning Economic Boom

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Esperanza, I just reread my last message on this thread and realized there was a typo. I had intended to say that I was unaware of an influx of refugees to the Yucatan. I am aware of the situation you describe in Ciudad Mier. I had also read about people leaving small towns in the Tierra Caliente and going to shelters, but I thought I also read that was for a short time and then they returned home--could be your information is more up to date.

panama john

Jun 15, 2011, 9:27 AM

Post #26 of 40 (1628 views)

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Re: [jrpierce] Letter From Mexico: Amid the Drug Wars, a Stunning Economic Boom

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Appart from the fact that the country is involved in a serious narco war, Mexico from all outward apperances seems to be doing quite well. The hiways are loaded with semi-new vehicles, the restaurants and fast food places are more often full then not. The Mexican Banks for the most part are in much better shape then those in the states. The level of debt, both personal and national, is low compared to that of the US. People, in large numbers, aren't defaulting and walking away from their homes, like in many states NOB. Mexico is largely a cash economy, with a multitud of small business. The people could probably survive a financial crisis better then those in the US, considering that they could endure living small and make a living from their small business. It's true that there is a lot of poverty in Mexico, but nothing compared to south of border. I have lived and spent time in many Latin American countries and Mexico runs like a well oiled machine compared to most and has one of the highest standards of living in the region. All in all Mexico is not that bad a place to live, one has to use good judgement on where to live and travel, but the people treat you quite well and the cost of living isn't to high yet.Unfortunately there are no paradises left, one has to take the good with the bad and go from there. Maybe some day people will be moving there American Dollars into Mexican Pesos for more financial security, especially if the Mex. Gov. moves to a form of silver standard for the peso, as they are now seriously talking about.

jrpierce


Jun 15, 2011, 9:45 AM

Post #27 of 40 (1614 views)

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Re: [panama john] Letter From Mexico: Amid the Drug Wars, a Stunning Economic Boom

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John, I generally agree with your observations about Mexico. I am frustrated this message doesn't get out, especially in the US, where the media and some State and Federal agencies focus on narco violence to the exclusion of anything else.

The old saying in the newspaper business is, "If it bleeds, it leads." It is very hard to get a more balanced message out. Indeed, sometimes on expat message boards here in Mexico, it sometimes seems the same rule applies.

Jim

YucaLandia


Jun 15, 2011, 10:37 AM

Post #28 of 40 (1604 views)

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Re: [panama john] Letter From Mexico: Amid the Drug Wars, a Stunning Economic Boom

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I also agree with panama john's observations. Merida may play some special roles in the economy and Drug Wars. For people who don't know Yucatan, Merida has been getting many emigrant refugees from up north, because the violence has barely touched us = Merida is a very safe and pleasant place to live. We had a small spill-over of bodies from Cancun 2 summers ago, when 12 Cancun-Narco-trafficantes were beheaded, and the bodies dumped in a quinta well outside of Merida, but other than that incident, we really have been spared from any Narco-violence. Local people claim two things: 1.) Merida/Yucatan has been declared a DMZ / safe-zone in the drug wars by a mutual consensus of the Narcos, as a place that the narco-familias can safely stash their families; and 2.) Merida is a center for laundering cash. Since there is a universal need by narcos for both safe havens for families and consistent reliable mechanisms for money laundering, there is a bit of logic behind the rumors.

Will our peace and quiet hold?
I sure hope so,
steve
-
-
Read-on MacDuff
E-visit at http://yucalandia.com

chinagringo


Jun 16, 2011, 10:01 AM

Post #29 of 40 (1493 views)

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Re: [jrpierce] Letter From Mexico: Amid the Drug Wars, a Stunning Economic Boom

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Jim:

Don't you think it is human nature to assume that every day will be positive and when that happens, there isn't much to say? It is only when things flip to the negative that people get vocal and express their displeasure. The press capitalizes on this by reporting the negatives to not only get people's attention but also get them talking about it.

With respect to the Drug Wars, here is a link to an interesting article published today by Stratfor:

http://www.stratfor.com/...dent-same-cartel-war
Regards,
Neil
Albuquerque, NM


esperanza

Jun 16, 2011, 10:26 AM

Post #30 of 40 (1486 views)

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Re: [jrpierce] Letter From Mexico: Amid the Drug Wars, a Stunning Economic Boom

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It hasn't been too long ago that no one but me was posting here about the cruel realities of violence in Mexico. In fact it hasn't been too long ago that everyone thought violence in Mexico was a myth perpetuated by just a few crazy people--and I include myself in that 'crazy' group, since I was castigated and excoriated for so long for posting the simple truth about the growing problem of narcoviolencia in Mexico.

Now everyone finally believes that there is serious trouble here in Mexico. Many people are posting about it and patting themselves on the back for knowing that it exists.

IMHO, you can't have it both ways. Either you can be in denial or you can post about what's happening. As another poster said, if it's all good news, it's not news. Or as the weatherman in San Diego used to say, "It's just another boringly beautiful day in Paradise."




http://www.mexicocooks.typepad.com








Brian

Jun 16, 2011, 10:58 AM

Post #31 of 40 (1479 views)

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Re: [esperanza] Letter From Mexico: Amid the Drug Wars, a Stunning Economic Boom

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In Reply To
It hasn't been too long ago that no one but me was posting here about the cruel realities of violence in Mexico.

I resemble that remark :-). Actually, I am sorry that you felt so alone. As a fellow ex-tijuanense, I always thought our experience should have been given more credence on this message board but until the violence and government corruption became more obvious in the interior of the Republic, we were just voices crying out in the wilderness so to speak.

richmx2


Jun 16, 2011, 11:03 AM

Post #32 of 40 (1474 views)

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Re: [chinagringo] Letter From Mexico: Amid the Drug Wars, a Stunning Economic Boom

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A much better analysis of the situation is provided by Roberto Newell Garcia of the Woodrow Wilson Institute. I question some of his economic assumptions (specifically, his enthusiasm for Calderon Administration proposals for changes in labor law and PEMEX regulation) but, much better documented than Nevear's piece, and I would trust Woodrow Wilson scholars over Stratfor, who make their living from fear-mongering.

Restoring Mexico's International Reputation (pdf file, 40 pp.)


http://mexfiles.net
http://voiceofmexico.com
http://editorialmazatlan.com

esperanza

Jun 16, 2011, 11:11 AM

Post #33 of 40 (1467 views)

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Re: [Brian] Letter From Mexico: Amid the Drug Wars, a Stunning Economic Boom

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Sorry, Brian you do indeed resemble that remark and I definitely meant to include you in the exclusive group of crazy people. Thank you for standing up, even when so many others were trying to shove us down and shut us up.




http://www.mexicocooks.typepad.com








chinagringo


Jun 16, 2011, 12:58 PM

Post #34 of 40 (1446 views)

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Re: [richmx2] Letter From Mexico: Amid the Drug Wars, a Stunning Economic Boom

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Thank you for the provided link! Unbiased knowledge isn't to be digested from one article from one source but it is the responsibility of the educated mind to read everything available to formulate the big picture.
Regards,
Neil
Albuquerque, NM


jrpierce


Jun 16, 2011, 4:33 PM

Post #35 of 40 (1411 views)

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Re: [richmx2] Letter From Mexico: Amid the Drug Wars, a Stunning Economic Boom

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Richmx2, many thanks for posting the superb paper from Garcia of the Wilson institute. It is right on point and seems excellently written and researched.

Neil and others, this Wilson paper makes the point far more eloquently than I can. There is clearly a media bias in the US when it comes to news about Mexico. They choose to cover the violence disproportionately compared to other aspects of Mexico. The article documents that.

Of course the media should report on the violence in Mexico. But how many articles do we see where they report on a new incidence of violence in Mexico, and then follow it up with several other grisly stories--even from months earlier? How many times have you ever seen a report of violence followed by an attempt to balance the news such as: "Despite this violence, the toll on visitors and tourists from the US has been low. According to the US State Department, only 110 US Citizens were killed in Mexico last year, out of 8 million visitors and 1 million permanent residents. Sources report that most of those killed were along the Northern border, and in a number of cases were people suspected of involvement in the narco trade. A recent study at the University of San Diego estimated that even Mexicans have about the same odds of being killed by the cartels as Americans do of being killed in an automobile accident."

The Wilson report makes the point that this media bias can only be corrected over time with a concerted effort to get news out that presents a more balanced view of Mexico.

In similar fashion, I have objected to some posts on expat boards in Mexico. Yes, the boards can and should discuss the violence. However, in many instances I believe those posting are guilty of the same lack of balanced reporting. I think some expats jump to the conclusion that because narcos are killing narcos, that means the rest of us expats are in mortal danger. As the Wilson report and the data prove, in all but a tiny percent of cases, this simply isn't the case.

I don't know about the rest of you, but I am in Mexico because I like it here and I like Mexicans. I know from personal experience that postings on these boards have scared people away from visiting here and encouraged some to leave. I think that further contributes to negative word of mouth about this wonderful country. So whether it is board posts or news reports, I hope Mexico can get a more balanced message before the world.

Jim

Bennie García

Jun 16, 2011, 6:10 PM

Post #36 of 40 (1400 views)

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Re: [chinagringo] Letter From Mexico: Amid the Drug Wars, a Stunning Economic Boom

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I don't know why people feel they need a thank you for posting about narco violence when it is a constant theme on all the news outlets throughout the country.

chinagringo


Jun 16, 2011, 6:33 PM

Post #37 of 40 (1391 views)

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Re: [Bennie García] Letter From Mexico: Amid the Drug Wars, a Stunning Economic Boom

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Quoting Bennie: "I don't know why people feel they need a thank you for posting about narco violence when it is a constant theme on all the news outlets throughout the country."

Granted there is plenty of access to Mexican media reports on the "narco violence" however, there are two categories of members on this forum - those that live SOB and are exposed daily and those who live NOB who typically only have access to NOB press reports that are often inaccurate and sensationalized. We are all not so privileged as yourself to have the experience and direct knowledge of living in Mexico for such an extended period!
Regards,
Neil
Albuquerque, NM


jrpierce


Jun 16, 2011, 9:28 PM

Post #38 of 40 (1360 views)

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Re: [chinagringo] Letter From Mexico: Amid the Drug Wars, a Stunning Economic Boom

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Neil, there are also folks living SOB (a lot, actually) who don't speak enough Spanish to understand the Mexican press so rely on the sensationalized news from the US on television or the internet. Since many of our cities in Mexico don't have local media in English, they can have a hard time keeping up with local news and often rely on the expat boards for much of their local information.

Jim

chinagringo


Jun 17, 2011, 9:09 AM

Post #39 of 40 (1326 views)

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Re: [jrpierce] Letter From Mexico: Amid the Drug Wars, a Stunning Economic Boom

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Jim:

Point taken and you can definitely add me to the list of not being fluent in Spanish! What has seemed to work for me is that I have bookmarked many of the Mexican media websites in areas that I happen to be particularly interested in. Granted these sites are in Spanish but I have my Firefox setup to translate to English when I go to a Spanish site. Having used this technique for quite some time, I have come to recognize some of the common translation problems and make adjustment for them. I often switch back and forth between the English translation and the original. Believe or not, I am starting to make some progress in understanding what I am reading in Spanish. Far from being fluent but baby steps will work for me.

Taking one small example of where some negative press has forced me to rethink some of our travel plans - the situation in Cheran. Ideally, I would have chosen to go through San Jose de Gracia, Cocucho, Cheran, and San Francisco Pichataro when driving from Guadalajara to Patzcuaro. From reading the Mexican press, I now understand that there may be a settlement which may result in some stability returning to Cheran but only time will tell. Since we have two months before we make the trip, I will watch the situation to determine if we want to go that route.
Regards,
Neil
Albuquerque, NM


jrpierce


Jun 17, 2011, 9:47 AM

Post #40 of 40 (1314 views)

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Re: [chinagringo] Letter From Mexico: Amid the Drug Wars, a Stunning Economic Boom

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Hi Neil.... In case I implied that I am fluent in Spanish, let me hasten to correct that. I do something similar, using Google translate to scan the papers, and then drilling in on the articles that interest me. Then, I try to read the article in Spanish. It is certainly good practice and I also learn from it. My wife and I have lived here for three years, have attended hours of classes, do lots of independent practice, speak Spanish every day with locals, and our Spanish keeps improving. That said, I still need lots of help. Our US friends here who have also worked hard at understanding Spanish and have been here longer, say it seems to take 5 - 7 years to start to feel comfortable. Of course, as the instructors at the language schools often tell you, no one who is not a native speaker will ever be truly fluent in Spanish, but some come very close. I'm certainly not even close yet.

((An aside: I use Firefox most of the time. Could you share in a PM how you have yours set up to translate things in Spanish? I use Google translate which is a two-step process.))

As for news about Cheran, and it informing you as to your travel plans: I don't regard that as "negative press." That is just the facts, and I think the facts should usually be communicated if it might affect people's plans. Despite the low odds of Americans getting killed in Mexico, smart travelers avoid trouble spots. Most of the people I know who were mugged in NYC when I lived there were out wandering the streets in the early morning hours, frequently inebriated. "Negative press" is when the situation in Cheran is reported, and then followed up with warnings about how awful and dangerous Michoacán and Mexico are. People from the US have sent messages saying, "You are so brave to be in Mexico." I usually respond that if sitting in my courtyard sipping a cerveza is brave, count me in!

Jim
 
 
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